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December 2022


dmillz25
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Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Coastal sections remained cooler due to a light onshore breeze. In Canada, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto all saw record high temperatures.

Very mild air now covers the region. Highs will generally reach the 50s in most places in coming days.

The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. The warmth will likely peak during the middle of the week when the mercury approaches or reaches 60° or above as far north as southern New England.

The height of the warmth will likely coincide with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. During January 1950-2022, AO-/PNA+ patterns saw 1% of days reach 60° or above in New York City vs. 5.7% of days for all other patterns. The highest January temperature during an AO-/PNA+ pattern occurred on January 8, 1998 when the thermometer reached 65°.

The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely.

It is virtually certain that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +26.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.422 today.

On December 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.651 (RMM). The December 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.713 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.4° (0.7° below normal).

 

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Coastal sections remained cooler due to a light onshore breeze. In Canada, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto all saw record high temperatures.

Very mild air now covers the region. Highs will generally reach the 50s in most places in coming days.

The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. The warmth will likely peak during the middle of the week when the mercury approaches or reaches 60° or above as far north as southern New England.

The height of the warmth will likely coincide with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. During January 1950-2022, AO-/PNA+ patterns saw 1% of days reach 60° or above in New York City vs. 5.7% of days for all other patterns. The highest January temperature during an AO-/PNA+ pattern occurred on January 8, 1998 when the thermometer reached 65°.

The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely.

It is virtually certain that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +26.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.422 today.

On December 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.651 (RMM). The December 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.713 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.4° (0.7° below normal).

 

Great job Don as always.   So, December to finish .70 below normal against the warmest normals we've had.  Majority of this forum had no snow or nothing meaningful.  I had 4" at my location from 2 events.  I was close to the southern edge of things with 1" or less totals just a 30-minute drive away.  Were it not for the 4 days of intense cold we would have been above normal.  This from a month that many were expecting so much from.  Especially the second half.  We basically had a 4-day cold snap.  Was a wet month (and year) at my location with 6.44" for the month and just over 52" for the year.  Just was not well distributed during the summer months.  I see from the latest Drought Monitor the south shore of Suffolk County is still in Moderate Drought.  Hope January can deliver something better, but my expectations are low.  

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11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Great job Don as always.   So, December to finish .70 below normal against the warmest normals we've had.  Majority of this forum had no snow or nothing meaningful.  I had 4" at my location from 2 events.  I was close to the southern edge of things with 1" or less totals just a 30-minute drive away.  Were it not for the 4 days of intense cold we would have been above normal.  This from a month that many were expecting so much from.  Especially the second half.  We basically had a 4-day cold snap.  Was a wet month (and year) at my location with 6.44" for the month and just over 52" for the year.  Just was not well distributed during the summer months.  I see from the latest Drought Monitor the south shore of Suffolk County is still in Moderate Drought.  Hope January can deliver something better, but my expectations are low.  

Ewr will finish a few tenths above

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The warmer finish to December is allowing the average to get closer to 40° again. 2017 and 2010 were the only Decembers to finish under 38°. 2010 was the last time we had an average closer to freezing for the month. 
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 40.0 40.0
2022 38.0 38.0
2021 43.8 43.8
2020 39.2 39.2
2019 38.3 38.3
2018 40.1 40.1
2017 35.0 35.0
2016 38.3 38.3
2015 50.8 50.8
2014 40.5 40.5
2013 38.5 38.5
2012 41.5 41.5
2011 43.3 43.3
2010 32.8 32.8
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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. Some showers are possible.  High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 54°

Temperatures will be above to much above average into at least the middle of next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 41.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 43.6°

Across the Atlantic, a large part of Europe is experiencing record warmth to end 2022. A number of locations are at or near monthly record highs.

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The last day of December is averaging    52degs.(50/54) or +18.

Month to date is     38.0[-1.2].          December will end at     38.4[-0.7].     But +2.5 versus the 1960's Decembers.

The first 7 days of January are averaging    49degs.(44/54) or +15.        We should have lows under 40 but above 32 starting Jan. 07 as a special Week 2 treat.       STRIKE UP THE BAND!

Reached 57 here yesterday. (62 in City)

Today:   50-54, wind variable then s. to w., rain/drizzle/fog till after midnight, 48 tomorrow AM.

52*(84%RH) here at 6am, drizzle, rain, foggy.       53* at 8am.         54*/55* Noon to 3pm.      56* at 9pm.      Fog mostly lifted by 10pm.         55* at 11pm.---but Fog back now.

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December is concluding on a warmer than normal note in New York City. New York City is finishing December with a mean temperature of 38.5°, which was 0.6° below normal. It would have been 0.6° above normal against the earlier baseline and ranks among the 48 warmest Decembers on record. Newark wound up slightly warmer than normal for the month as a whole.

The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. The warmth will likely peak during the middle of the week when the mercury approaches or reaches 60° or above as far north as southern New England.

The height of the warmth will likely coincide with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. During January 1950-2022, AO-/PNA+ patterns saw 1% of days reach 60° or above in New York City vs. 5.7% of days for all other patterns. The highest January temperature during an AO-/PNA+ pattern occurred on January 8, 1998 when the thermometer reached 65°.

The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely.

2022 is becoming the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The measurable snow drought could end as early as next Friday. There is a cluster of EPS members (22%) that show 1" or more snow at New York City for January 6th into January 7th. A measurable snowfall is 0.1".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +29.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.415 today.

On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.629 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.654 (RMM).

 

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On 12/27/2022 at 8:30 AM, BucksCO_PA said:

Yep, daytime highs for 12/25/1980 was even colder than 12/25/1983. As cold as it was during the DEC 1983 outbreak by 12/28 both PHL & NYC were in the mid 50's with over an inch of rain from a healthy clipper so those situations also occurred in the past. Wasted or unproductive cold is not unique to this day & age.

Regarding snow for Christmas 1980 that actually fell on the afternoon of Christmas Eve, 2-3" from NE Philly up thru CNJ to New Brunswick. PHL was rain & metro NYC looks to be a little less with around an inch. So a white Christmas that year for many outside NYC & PHL which are only listed as T's.

Thanks nice memories-- it was like a dusting here if I remember correctly.

The 80s definitely had mostly thread the needle and wasted cold was so common back then, looks like we might be back to that kind of pattern.

If that's true we should be happy with getting to around 2 feet of snowfall every year.

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On 12/27/2022 at 8:23 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The high was 9° in 1985. So 1980 and 1985 had the only diurnal highs below 10° during your lifetime.

Thanks Don, did JFK also have single digit highs and below zero lows on these dates (or in 1977)?

I lived in Park Slope, Brooklyn in the 70s and early 80s up until November 1982 (I saw the April 1982 blizzard there!) and we moved to Long Island's south shore after that so I saw February 1983 there.  Normally I use NYC as my "location" up through Veteran's Day 1982 (the day we moved) and JFK after that.  JFK got over 20" in February 1983 (I think-- they always do better in strong el nino snowstorms-- same thing happened in PD2 and January 2016!) so that works for me!

 

 

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On 12/27/2022 at 9:07 AM, JTA66 said:

1. Correct!

2. I was 14 in 1980 and seem to recall snow just before Christmas that year...either the 23rd or 24th. Thank you for confirming I didn't imagine that.

I think we have to stick around for a few more decades to remind people this actually happened in the 80s lol.  If people just look at snowfall, the 80s weren't all that good but there were several interesting weather events and extremes back then that just don't look very likely anymore.  April blizzard?  Below zero on Christmas morning?  I don't see that happening again in our lifetimes.

 

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On 12/27/2022 at 11:17 AM, bluewave said:

Northern New England is warming at a faster rate in December  than NYC since the 1951-1980 climate normals period. 

Dec 2011-2022 - 1951-1980

CAR….+5.0°

BTV….+6.8°

NYC...+4.4°
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 20.7 20.7
2022 26.5 26.5
2021 21.4 21.4
2020 26.0 26.0
2019 20.8 20.8
2018 16.4 16.4
2017 13.4 13.4
2016 16.6 16.6
2015 28.5 28.5
2014 22.3 22.3
2013 12.9 12.9
2012 21.4 21.4
2011 22.5 22.5


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 15.7 15.7
1980 9.0 9.0
1979 19.1 19.1
1978 16.3 16.3
1977 16.8 16.8
1976 7.9 7.9
1975 10.8 10.8
1974 18.5 18.5
1973 23.2 23.2
1972 7.6 7.6
1971 11.6 11.6
1970 10.1 10.1
1969 21.9 21.9
1968 17.9 17.9
1967 17.3 17.3
1966 21.1 21.1
1965 15.8 15.8
1964 16.9 16.9
1963 8.7 8.7
1962 16.5 16.5
1961 21.4 21.4
1960 16.5 16.5
1959 18.5 18.5
1958 5.5 5.5
1957 21.0 21.0
1956 14.6 14.6
1955 11.1 11.1
1954 18.9 18.9
1953 22.4 22.4
1952 18.8 18.8
1951 14.2 14.2

 


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 29.4 29.4
2022 29.9 29.9
2021 31.8 31.8
2020 31.3 31.3
2019 27.4 27.4
2018 26.8 26.8
2017 22.3 22.3
2016 29.0 29.0
2015 39.2 39.2
2014 30.0 30.0
2013 23.5 23.5
2012 30.8 30.8
2011 30.6 30.6


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 22.6 22.6
1980 15.0 15.0
1979 29.0 29.0
1978 25.1 25.1
1977 22.4 22.4
1976 16.3 16.3
1975 20.1 20.1
1974 28.5 28.5
1973 27.4 27.4
1972 22.5 22.5
1971 24.3 24.3
1970 14.3 14.3
1969 18.6 18.6
1968 17.9 17.9
1967 25.5 25.5
1966 23.4 23.4
1965 28.5 28.5
1964 24.8 24.8
1963 12.9 12.9
1962 20.1 20.1
1961 23.9 23.9
1960 19.7 19.7
1959 26.0 26.0
1958 13.0 13.0
1957 29.6 29.6
1956 26.2 26.2
1955 16.6 16.6
1954 23.1 23.1
1953 31.4 31.4
1952 26.8 26.8
1951 25.0 25.0


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 40.6 40.6
2022 37.3 37.3
2021 43.8 43.8
2020 39.2 39.2
2019 38.3 38.3
2018 40.1 40.1
2017 35.0 35.0
2016 38.3 38.3
2015 50.8 50.8
2014 40.5 40.5
2013 38.5 38.5
2012 41.5 41.5
2011 43.3 43.3


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 36.2 36.2
1980 32.4 32.4
1979 41.1 41.1
1978 38.9 38.9
1977 35.6 35.6
1976 29.9 29.9
1975 35.8 35.8
1974 39.3 39.3
1973 39.0 39.0
1972 38.5 38.5
1971 40.8 40.8
1970 34.4 34.4
1969 33.4 33.4
1968 34.2 34.2
1967 38.2 38.2
1966 35.7 35.7
1965 40.5 40.5
1964 36.4 36.4
1963 31.2 31.2
1962 31.5 31.5
1961 35.5 35.5
1960 30.9 30.9
1959 38.4 38.4
1958 29.3 29.3
1957 40.2 40.2
1956 40.9 40.9
1955 29.7 29.7
1954 35.9 35.9
1953 41.3 41.3
1952 38.4 38.4
1951 39.1 39.1

Interesting that the mountains of Northern New England are warming a lot faster than the Rocky Mountains (though they are warming too, and now forest fires are happening there in Colorado)

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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, did JFK also have single digit highs and below zero lows on these dates (or in 1977)?

I lived in Park Slope, Brooklyn in the 70s and early 80s up until November 1982 (I saw the April 1982 blizzard there!) and we moved to Long Island's south shore after that so I saw February 1983 there.  Normally I use NYC as my "location" up through Veteran's Day 1982 (the day we moved) and JFK after that.  JFK got over 20" in February 1983 (I think-- they always do better in strong el nino snowstorms-- same thing happened in PD2 and January 2016!) so that works for me!

 

 

January 17, 1977 had a high temperature of 8° at JFK.  The temperature stayed in the single digits during the afternoon of December 25, 1980. During the 1985 Arctic outbreak, the coldest maximum temperature was 10°.

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On 1/1/2023 at 8:34 AM, donsutherland1 said:

January 17, 1977 had a high temperature of 8° at JFK.  The temperature stayed in the single digits during the afternoon of December 25, 1980. During the 1985 Arctic outbreak, the coldest maximum temperature was 10°.

Thanks Don and did all three have lows of -1 or -2 at JFK?

 

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