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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that block is perfection and there are people worried. lol

Correct. No fault if they're new, it's the veterans that concern me. Essentially you need a variety of things for a massive one, this has all the early stage requirements. I think people forget we go an entire winters without a look that good. 

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Q: regarding the upcoming favorable snow pattern and its timing. Obviously we hope the pattern has some staying power. Is there any proven data out there regarding timing and what time of winter a historically snowy pattern sets up in? Obviously the colder times of year are more snowy. I guess my question is: does this period early in winter make this pattern more likely to be transient? Or am I barking up the wrong tree? 

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1 hour ago, TalcottWx said:

Weather team is mentioning heavy rain, isolated power outages on Wednesday 

yeah there's interesting weather prior to the balance of what interests people in here today.   That could be a potent squall and wind event, west to east, through the region Wed evening.   Southerlies gust to 45 or even 55mph, with a sharp wind shift and burst to 60 and blinding swept rain for 3-5 mins with that ribbon echo. 

Interesting turn around in temperatures ...with an 18 hour cool snap that goes quite a bit in the other direction by Saturday... Then we'll see how things modulate next week.  The idea of the blocking is likely to pan out... but the variations in how it effects the flow and what particulars that will entail still has plenty of room to move around in guidance after Saturday

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10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Q: regarding the upcoming favorable snow pattern and its timing. Obviously we hope the pattern has some staying power. Is there any proven data out there regarding timing and what time of winter a historically snowy pattern sets up in? Obviously the colder times of year are more snowy. I guess my question is: does this period early in winter make this pattern more likely to be transient? Or am I barking up the wrong tree? 

Blocks this powerful typically last at least a couple weeks but the pattern beyond that is dependent on a lot of other things. In 2010-2011, the block hung around for over a month before breaking down during the 1/12/11 snowstorm. But the fun continued another few weeks because the Pacific became favorable and the Atlantic was still ok even after the massive block broke down. 
 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I dunno-pointing out alternative positions at least for me is part of the learning process. I’ve personally pointed out unfavorable progs when they happen and each time I qualify it with the fact that the ensembles generally look very good.  I pointed out tje GEPS at 12z because they were the first of the ensembles out and I thought they looked kind of hideous comparing to the tenor prior to 12z.  The rest of the suite fortunately did not agree.   While I’d love to see snow soon I don’t care so much really.  It continues to be very early.  Based on the guidance today, mid month looks potentially ripe.

You haven't mentioned anything terribly distracting ... 

I mean, whether you are right or wrong regarding NAO blocks merging with winter killing STRs is really 'sides the main value of the point:   NAOs are inherently poorly performed and stochastic index fields.... Modeled blocks and/or decaying thereof, are often proven to be red herrings. 

That's the take away.  'don't count NAO chickens before they hatch"

As far as getting this block to initially verify ... I think it's above medium confidence, personally...  I'm seeing the scaffolding at planetary scales that are directive in this case.   

If I had to put money on it, I'd say we'd see a system materialize for the 13th of the month... but I wouldn't be surprised if a flat mix headache happened a bit sooner.   Before then, we are social media booked with therapy appointments LOL

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yes, very minimal SO2 release, but directly injected a massive amount of H2O to the strat and mesosphere. My colleagues have estimated a couple tenths of a degree warming over next couple years from this. Nature paper from Nov 19 finds a net climate warming signal already. 

Nature paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm not a geologist - though have side-carred a lot of interest my whole life ...

I'm under the impression that the subaqueous nature of the eruption is at least partial in why the S02 was low?  - compared to eruptions having less energy, such as Pinatubo ... with less VEI but was richer in S02.  

  (these are not statements; these are rhetorical questions)

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not a geologist - though have side-carred a lot of interest my whole life ...

I'm under the impression that the subaqueous nature of the eruption is at least partial in why the S02 was low?  - compared to eruptions having less energy, such as Pinatubo ... with less VEI but was richer in S02.  

  (these are not statements; these are rhetorical questions)

I think so yes. Not sure how much the chemical composition of the magma may have also played a role.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies look good until near Xmas when they go to crap and stay that way into January.

Take it fwiw....they've been pretty awful though this season...esp beyond week 2/3. They missed the upcoming pattern even just last week and they missed the mid-November flip.

 

I expect them to go to shit right around the holidays. They will absolutely nail that.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes.

There's probably multiple reasons for it....first, we're just entering winter so everyone is impatient.

Second, I'll bet a large part of it is there are no snowstorms on the operational runs. That gets a lot weenies anxious, even though it shouldn't. Snowstorms occur from shortwaves.....good luck having models find a shortwave in the flow 10+ days out.

Third....there is definitely Tip's psychology aspect to it. Some probably doom and gloom so they can either be "right" or "happy"....if they are wrong, it's cold and snowy and they won't care that they were wrong. But if they're right, they get to troll everyone and pat themselves on the back for calling the bust well in advance. 

Regarding your second point those that are looking for snowstorms need to look at the last two runs of the CFS on Pivotal (snow depth).  

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

He definitely was before ‘13. He tossed the Euro when it started showing the blizzard. Can’t remember ‘15, but Scott definitely melted before epicosity. 

January 2015. Steve was sitting  there smiling as grand kids got hauled off to the ER from concussions while sledding on a crusty inch of pack. I had enough at that point.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

January 2015. Steve was sitting  there smiling as grand kids got hauled off to the ER from concussions while sledding on a crusty inch of pack. I had enough at that point.

That’s exactly what I remember! Steve posting pics of muddy sled tracks and trying to make the best of a bad situation. And then you melted hard haha. 

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