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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Something else that may give the Pacific a boost later on December. The MJO can be voodoo many times, but these to me...are good signals. Looks like some forcing gets past 135E later this month..but to boost that...the 850 easterly anomalies also move towards the east. The convergence area also shifts east which will aid in the MJO forcing also perhaps shifting east. If we were to have easterly anomalies across the basin and the IO blow up with tropical convection I would be more concerned...but this looks like a good thing to me anyways. 

 

image.png.fb8d5319d8c46cf88319c25557459da9.pngimage.png.0789c65caa0dea3c59ec49f835464bff.png

 

 

 

Yea, Pacific should be better in January...many of my analogs did that.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is but in all honesty … yeah, I find myself a little concerned. What underpins the expectation relates to ‘too much of a good thing’ 

I’m not likely to take the any operational GFS solution verbatim … its overnight renditions of the NAO block were comically extreme. I mused internally, ‘it’s like it’s gathered up all the last 25 years worth of CC and stored it over the Davis Straight’  But it does harken to the overkill compression problem that can overwhelm from Texas to Bermuda with meat grinder velocities  

The ensemble means of the GEFS and EPS are less epic block SDs … but even they hint at velocity anomalies within eastern conus region/trough 

I’m less concerned about NAO blocking merging with west Atlantic perennial heights …—> cutter pattern. But like Feb 2007 if the ridge is berserker and backs SW, the polar jet forced through the TV region basal flow rate is over a 100kts.  S/Ws get absorbed as opposed to generating goodies  

The other aspect is… we are all hungry to get winter going as fans of the season and model cinema addicts (LOL). But seriously, there’s been no mentioning how NAO prognostics are still the biggest backstabber index forecast problem that exists to deterministic techniques in this field. I’ve been thinking about this but haven’t brought it up because the arctic oscillation, which is a little bit more dependable, has been exceptionally negative in the outlook from all guidance sources and techniques for quite some time and they obviously share domain space as does the North Pacific etc. etc. That tends to foot the NAO. 

I think the velocity issue will probably be present early on in the blocking pattern because it is still fighting the SE ridge a little, but it seems to really relax after the first week of the pattern or so....at least it's implied by the models. We retro some of the ridging back toward the Rockies and that really loosens the gradient between Quebec and the SE US. We'll see if it plays out that way....but regardless, we'll still likely see threats either way....but if we're fishing for the Big Dog, we'd obviously want to see that relaxation in the south.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the velocity issue will probably be present early on in the blocking pattern because it is still fighting the SE ridge a little, but it seems to really relax after the first week of the pattern or so....at least it's implied by the models. We retro some of the ridging back toward the Rockies and that really loosens the gradient between Quebec and the SE US. We'll see if it plays out that way....but regardless, we'll still likely see threats either way....but if we're fishing for the Big Dog, we'd obviously want to see that relaxation in the south.

Not to mention that the block will relax a bit towards mid-month, which is normally when we see the higher end potential.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to mention that the block will relax a bit towards mid-month, which is normally when we see the higher end potential.

Here's a good visual....you can see early on how there are still above normal heights in the south while we are BN.....

 

Nov28_00zEPS264.thumb.png.2f0e29d2346b97951c6d8f5e9b9e96ef.png

 

 

 

Then you will note how late in the period at the end, the heights are below normal across all of the east including the southeast with the ridging pushed back toward western plains and rockies. Nov28_00zEPS360.thumb.png.336ec1c625474e7388317394abb664c0.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a good visual....you can see early on how there are still above normal heights in the south while we are BN.....

 

Nov28_00zEPS264.thumb.png.2f0e29d2346b97951c6d8f5e9b9e96ef.png

 

 

 

Then you will note how late in the period at the end, the heights are below normal across all of the east including the southeast with the ridging pushed back toward western plains and rockies. Nov28_00zEPS360.thumb.png.336ec1c625474e7388317394abb664c0.png

That's a good visual. Typically when that gets towards and north of Hudson Bay...we have more potential.

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43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm sure you wouldn't want a 09-10 style block either.

Probably why New England prefers a modestly negative NAO

I am not worried at all about suppression given the Pacific. Totally different setup from 2010. Now, maybe as the block is developing we get some of John's gradient saturation, which could cause a sheared wave to go south due to attenuation, but that is different.

Its more about getting the NAO to wax and wane for higher end storm potential....you want to avoid stagnation.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a good visual....you can see early on how there are still above normal heights in the south while we are BN.....

 

Nov28_00zEPS264.thumb.png.2f0e29d2346b97951c6d8f5e9b9e96ef.png

 

 

 

Then you will note how late in the period at the end, the heights are below normal across all of the east including the southeast with the ridging pushed back toward western plains and rockies. Nov28_00zEPS360.thumb.png.336ec1c625474e7388317394abb664c0.png

Yea, its a sheared-gradient pattern until about mid month.

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33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have said yourself that the mid-winter period is more prone to velocity saturation than the book ends of the season...that said, I would not have an issue with a string of mod events from sheared out, attenuating waves....those are how we get our best months of December. We would have had that less December if it were not for the largest RNA on record.

Yeah that’s true over the long haul… However we have to consider each case within its own merit. 

I mean it’s kind of the same logic of climate doesn’t predict the weather; the weather creates the climate. It just means that something more apt to happen in the middle of  the winter can certainly happen at the bookends - even if it’s a little less likely to have that take place. Blah blah. 

But you know I don’t actually dislike the idea of more light to middling events like you mentioned because I’ve been toying with that myself frankly. Maybe even a flat icer. If the ridge retrogrades west like Will and others are mentioning… Clippers are an option too.

I agree that if one is searching for bigger players … a relaxation is preferred. Maybe we can even get into a +0 to -2 weekly oscillation with the NAO … Get a +PNAP return state then we’re really carving fillet mignon

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its a sheared-gradient pattern until about mid month.

well so some fast flying 2-4 inchers?  That is fine, then a  big storm at some points as things move around.  That is a very promising look at a great time of year, and though it will shift around, it seems like we should have 2-3 weeks at least of threats and cold.

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Northern New England will surely cash in starting off December.
 

All the snow weenies depressed which probably means it’s a great time to take the other side. Pacific is skunked but Sig NAO block means better than climo chances of good snows. The GL cutter midweek looks like a pattern setter. Northern New England will def cash in much better than current guidance is advertising. Troughiness out west will send shortwaves into the confluence over the northeast. Great for ski country.

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22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well so some fast flying 2-4 inchers?  That is fine, then a  big storm at some points as things move around.  That is a very promising look at a great time of year, and though it will shift around, it seems like we should have 2-3 weeks at least of threats and cold.

Maybe 6-10'ers, too....

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Like sands thru the hourglass 

It’s hilarious that There would be less emotion if we just had a one eyed pig and everyone knew things would suck 

Nothing worse than seeing great potential and getting nothing for it.

At least in a horrible pattern you already know what to expect. 

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So.. as we are waiting for our Winter to begin and the arrival of Snow.... I find myself looking at the west...especially Spokane....

They are looking at 1"-3" today with some heavy Snow Showers moving through... Then a more significant storm moving in from Tuesday night through Thursday night.  These are the kind of Snow events I miss and am looking forward to.

Am I the only one who does this? ( Live vicariously through other places getting the Snow ).  Hope this isn't the wrong thread to post this in.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

… to sustaining snow cover for 11 straight days.

How someone could say there wasn’t a change is hard to believe.

And people think Stowe doesn’t represent SNE , odd

and yes even the 90% of the forum staring at green grass for a month there was a pattern change from obscene warmth , that’s clear 

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