Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I may take the day off to finish winterizing the yard. 
November snow is nice but the mild month has been great.  I’ll be ready for snow right when the models show the potential a few weeks.

Yes sir, 12/8-10 onward is a nice time for the pattern to set in…10-13 days from now makes a big difference climatologically speaking this time of year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Didn’t you just say in your previous post whatever happens, it doesn’t have to be a bomb? Or did I misinterpret it? 

What, you don't read minds?!   lol -

No, I mean wrt the pattern. That's where my mind spoke internally, but then I only managed to type ~ half of that internal dialogue there haha.

Yeah, I mean the pattern is attempting to get extraordinary, in both the GEFs and EPS means.  I mean the D10 in the 00z EPS and both the 00z and 06z GEFs appears to be nearing some kind of H500 historical value in the NAO, doing so within an entire hemisphere that's exceptionally deeply descending Arctic Oscillation.  The only reason why the AO is "only" -2 or so SD out there, is because the whole hemisphere is biased mild ( maybe that's a CC tugging at that...I dunno - not getting into that...).  But, that structure is about as pure a total bifurcation of the PV as is fluid mechanically possible at total planetary scales.  

These operational runs ...more or less oscillating their runs around impressions that are not "yet" tapped into what all that "could" mean.  The embedded events of which ...it's like you are looking Betelgeuse ... knowing that a super nova could detonate at any time.  In the models, we are just waiting on the nova to materialize out of that potential. 

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What, you don't read minds?!   lol -

No, I mean wrt the pattern. That's where my mind spoke internally, but then I only managed to type ~ half of that internal dialogue there haha.

Yeah, I mean the pattern is attempting to get extraordinary, in both the GEFs and EPS means.  I mean the D10 in the 00z EPS and both the 00z and 06z GEFs appears to be nearing some kind of H500 historical value in the NAO, doing so within an entire hemisphere that's exceptionally deeply descending Arctic Oscillation.  The only reason why the AO is "only" -2 or so SD out there, is because the whole hemisphere is biased mild ( maybe that's a CC tugging at that...I dunno - not getting into that...).  But, that structure is about as pure a total bifurcation of the PV as is fluid mechanically possible at total planetary scales.  

These operational runs ...more or less oscillating their runs around impressions that are not "yet" tapped into what all that "could" mean.  The embedded events of which ...it's like you are looking Betelgeuse ... knowing that a super nova could detonate at any time.  In the models, we are just waiting on the nova to materialize out of that potential.  

Ahhh ok.  I was thinking as I posted, is he meaning the pattern in general?  And you were. I agree…it(the pattern) is looking like something we haven’t seen in a while.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We are getting there. Putting down good snowpack in Canada.  Gradient is so close but yet so far into mid-December.EB69C1E7-B7D3-4493-A1FC-4FC9AE2A97E2.thumb.png.1006b5f6137388ff4f5198ec62147397.png

 

I can just hear some day's meme of, 'yeah, snow pack is overrated' ... It's really popularized quite affectingly when there is in fact no snow cover, too.  LOL. 

But it is perhaps more important than many may think. Particularly for marginal/mixy overrunning scenarios. If one likes ice storms ( ...other than needing their head examined...) that's the difference between 32.8 and 31.1 for ageo flows that drain from that source.  

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That would be terrible if that verified thru mid month. Thankfully it’s the GFS

There’s a pretty reasonable chance we don’t get any snow events through 12/13. That’s like a week (maybe not even) into the pattern change. 

I’d be surprised though if we made it to 12/20 without one. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a pretty reasonable chance we don’t get any snow events through 12/13. That’s like a week (maybe not even) into the pattern change. 

I’d be surprised though if we made it to 12/20 without one. 

Well I hope not. That would be a tremendous letdown… for me anyway .

  • Confused 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well I hope not. That would be a tremendous letdown… for me anyway .

Yes I know it would be. That’s why we’re posting it so that you can re-adjust your expectations. Sometimes we get a snow event right at the beginning of the pattern change, but sometimes we don’t and we have to wait a week-plus. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even in 2010, the pattern flipped around 12/5….but we then whiffed on a snow chance a day or two later and then we had a torching cutter on 12/12/10 within that favorable pattern.
 

The retro storm on 12/21-22 was our first accumulating snow in the pattern and it was only a big deal on the Cape. Boxing Day finally happened a few days later. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...