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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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Ensembles seem to be trending toward a more zonal flow in the long range. The trough is finally forced to dig under the NAO block around 12/7-8 so we get colder in the east. It is initially helped by some EPO ridging but that has been washing out in the longer range in recent runs and we are left with a fairly cool zonal flow. All in all I would have to say the last day we’ve taken some steps backs but Will and the big dogs can chime in. 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is not a SNE centric post but Several rainers to Maine over next 10 days , not so great for early season ski conditions. Looks like there will some flash freezes after the rains w snow showers for favored upslope spots. 

There’s 3 cutters/ damaging wind events thru day 10 being modeled. Wednesday nite, Saturday nite and next Tuesday.

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30 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ensembles seem to be trending toward a more zonal flow in the long range. The trough is finally forced to dig under the NAO block around 12/7-8 so we get colder in the east. It is initially helped by some EPO ridging but that has been washing out in the longer range in recent runs and we are left with a fairly cool zonal flow. All in all I would have to say the last day we’ve taken some steps backs but Will and the big dogs can chime in. 

The flow does get a bit zonal on ensemble guidance for a few days but the biggest effect is out in the plains. We keep colder due to huge NAO block and the plains mini-ridge looks like it retrogrades back toward the Rockies after a few days. 

As long as we have that block, we’re fair game for something. 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s 3 cutters/ damaging wind events thru day 10 being modeled. Wednesday nite, Saturday nite and next Tuesday.

Ya I’m just not thrilled as I had some time to ski early December and I was hoping NNE Elevations  could Maintain decent conditions , just don’t want to ski on a tarmac post flash freeze . Tying to see which days might be best at the Wildcat 

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I could see it being cold and dry for a bit until after the 12th or so before any real storm chances occur.  The thing on the 7th-8th may be wintry up north with a mixed bag. 
 

I don’t see any real issues. You can’t really pin point deterministic things like snow opportunities. It’s a look that could deliver some chances. I don’t know how much more you can say with any confidence. We’ll blame Ray if nothing happens by a Christmas. 

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5 hours ago, weathafella said:

My memory of 1969 is that it was kind of meh.   But we had a huge qpf bomb that turned to a driving rainstorm in Boston that probably dumped good snows west of 495.  This was around the holiday period.

I believe it was Christmas night into the 26th.  In SWCT we had an 11" snow pounding, with T-snow...then the occluded front moved through and it was drizzly.  If I am recalling the correct storm, it was an all-timer for most of VT.

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i mean... this is about as exciting of a look as it gets for SNE if history means anything. can't ask for much more when you have a perfectly placed block like that

also, as the block matures, often times the ridging over the Plains retrogrades to the Rockies, and wave breaking from the Aleutian ridge leads to amplification of that ridge. this loop kinda shows that

ezgif-5-a6ec10df33.gif.f09fddd0c8560d1e3a0a2d34eebbc475.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-0997600.thumb.png.3aa2f2274492d14b51600d67af30d819.png

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11 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

My only point was…and Will backed it up,  was that what QgOmega was talking about was a low probability.  
 

Sure Jerry, it could happen, but the chances are low currently, and that was my point, that he is a Troll…he always down plays and trolls everything.  

And If you want to input that possibility, there is a way to do it without making everybody else look like they’re wish-casting, which is what he was insinuating.  

QQ Omega is the first user i have ever ignored, here or elsewhere. it is easy to do-hover over his username, and you will see the "Ignore" option on the bottom right.

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean... this is about as exciting of a look as it gets for SNE if history means anything. can't ask for much more when you have a perfectly placed block like that

also, as the block matures, often times the ridging over the Plains retrogrades to the Rockies, and wave breaking from the Aleutian ridge leads to amplification of that ridge. this loop kinda shows that

ezgif-5-a6ec10df33.gif.f09fddd0c8560d1e3a0a2d34eebbc475.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-0997600.thumb.png.3aa2f2274492d14b51600d67af30d819.png

Yeah I think the chances come after it peaks in terms of SD anomalies. 

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Also a big block like that could be around for a while. This isn't a transitory NAO block 

That's a good thing in that it keeps us in the game when the PAC goes kind of ugly...then ideally, you'd have the PAC go more favorable as the block finally breaks down (ala January 2011 when kept the fun going all month into early Feb after the block broke down during the 1/12/11 event)

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52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean... this is about as exciting of a look as it gets for SNE if history means anything. can't ask for much more when you have a perfectly placed block like that

also, as the block matures, often times the ridging over the Plains retrogrades to the Rockies, and wave breaking from the Aleutian ridge leads to amplification of that ridge. this loop kinda shows that

ezgif-5-a6ec10df33.gif.f09fddd0c8560d1e3a0a2d34eebbc475.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-0997600.thumb.png.3aa2f2274492d14b51600d67af30d819.png

That has as much chance as verifying statistically as a coin flip at that range.  In fact odds are likely less than a coin flip

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean... this is about as exciting of a look as it gets for SNE if history means anything. can't ask for much more when you have a perfectly placed block like that

also, as the block matures, often times the ridging over the Plains retrogrades to the Rockies, and wave breaking from the Aleutian ridge leads to amplification of that ridge. this loop kinda shows that

ezgif-5-a6ec10df33.gif.f09fddd0c8560d1e3a0a2d34eebbc475.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-0997600.thumb.png.3aa2f2274492d14b51600d67af30d819.png

It is but in all honesty … yeah, I find myself a little concerned. What underpins the expectation relates to ‘too much of a good thing’ 

I’m not likely to take the any operational GFS solution verbatim … its overnight renditions of the NAO block were comically extreme. I mused internally, ‘it’s like it’s gathered up all the last 25 years worth of CC and stored it over the Davis Straight’  But it does harken to the overkill compression problem that can overwhelm from Texas to Bermuda with meat grinder velocities  

The ensemble means of the GEFS and EPS are less epic block SDs … but even they hint at velocity anomalies within eastern conus region/trough 

I’m less concerned about NAO blocking merging with west Atlantic perennial heights …—> cutter pattern. But like Feb 2007 if the ridge is berserker and backs SW, the polar jet forced through the TV region basal flow rate is over a 100kts.  S/Ws get absorbed as opposed to generating goodies  

The other aspect is… we are all hungry to get winter going as fans of the season and model cinema addicts (LOL). But seriously, there’s been no mentioning how NAO prognostics are still the biggest backstabber index forecast problem that exists to deterministic techniques in this field. I’ve been thinking about this but haven’t brought it up because the arctic oscillation, which is a little bit more dependable, has been exceptionally negative in the outlook from all guidance sources and techniques for quite some time and they obviously share domain space as does the North Pacific etc. etc. That tends to foot the NAO. 

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Just now, qg_omega said:

That has as much chance as verifying statistically as a coin flip at that range.  In fact odds are likely less than a coin flip

no, not really. these retrograding Scandinavian blocking events are usually picked up at range just like most anomalous weather events. March 2018 was modeled at 10-15 days out and never waivered

there are definitely some similarities between the two blocking events:

  • initial SE ridging that gets squashed 
  • a strong Aleutian high
  • western trough
  • Plains ridging that eventually retrogrades to the Rockies, leading to a trough over the east and a favorable pattern for larger storms 

this is kind of what I expect to happen here, but every setup is different

C9BA0FAC-0CBF-4F2C-9CC2-0A81D5A63F2A.gif.d6194735361e77eaf4496dca44079de0.thumb.gif.26cbacef8750d542c254f25ff6b278ca.gif

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13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That has as much chance as verifying statistically as a coin flip at that range.  In fact odds are likely less than a coin flip

Blocking patterns are actually one of the easiest to forecast for models because they're so stable. 

Once models lock on they don't waver much

Storms become easy to pin down as well shortly after. That's how you get weeks of snowy weather and strong consensus 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean... this is about as exciting of a look as it gets for SNE if history means anything. can't ask for much more when you have a perfectly placed block like that

also, as the block matures, often times the ridging over the Plains retrogrades to the Rockies, and wave breaking from the Aleutian ridge leads to amplification of that ridge. this loop kinda shows that

ezgif-5-a6ec10df33.gif.f09fddd0c8560d1e3a0a2d34eebbc475.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-0997600.thumb.png.3aa2f2274492d14b51600d67af30d819.png

That is a blueprint to SNE history.

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13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, not really. these retrograding Scandinavian blocking events are usually picked up at range just like most anomalous weather events. March 2018 was modeled at 10-15 days out and never waivered

there are definitely some similarities between the two blocking events:

  • initial SE ridging that gets squashed 
  • a strong Aleutian high
  • western trough
  • Plains ridging that eventually retrogrades to the Rockies, leading to a trough over the east and a favorable pattern for larger storms 

this is kind of what I expect to happen here, but every setup is different

C9BA0FAC-0CBF-4F2C-9CC2-0A81D5A63F2A.gif.d6194735361e77eaf4496dca44079de0.thumb.gif.26cbacef8750d542c254f25ff6b278ca.gif

This will probably spark some debate… Or be ignored – not sure. But you can see how the NAO is  actually the more nonlinear wave response from the Pacific as its source for construction just by observing how the polar jet across the North Pacific is behaving in tandem. 

it’s a meaningful observation because it harkens to the idea that this may not just be a random block that comes and passes over a three day period. It is more systemically rooted. 

Don’t have a problem with the occurrence I have a problem with the other aspects I mentioned above in that other post

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Blocking patterns are actually one of the easiest to forecast for models because they're so stable. 

Once models lock on they don't waver much

Storms become easy to pin down as well shortly after. That's how you get weeks of snowy weather and strong consensus 

Mmm … in fairness? that is not AS true for the NAO.  

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Something else that may give the Pacific a boost later on December. The MJO can be voodoo many times, but these to me...are good signals. Looks like some forcing gets past 135E later this month..but to boost that...the 850 easterly anomalies also move towards the east. The convergence area also shifts east which will aid in the MJO forcing also perhaps shifting east. If we were to have easterly anomalies across the basin and the IO blow up with tropical convection I would be more concerned...but this looks like a good thing to me anyways. 

 

image.png.fb8d5319d8c46cf88319c25557459da9.pngimage.png.0789c65caa0dea3c59ec49f835464bff.png

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is but in all honesty … yeah, I find myself a little concerned. What underpins the expectation relates to ‘too much of a good thing’ 

I’m not likely to take the any operational GFS solution verbatim … its overnight renditions of the NAO block were comically extreme. I mused internally, ‘it’s like it’s gathered up all the last 25 years worth of CC and stored it over the Davis Straight’  But it does harken to the overkill compression problem that can overwhelm from Texas to Bermuda with meat grinder velocities  

The ensemble means of the GEFS and EPS are less epic block SDs … but even they hint at velocity anomalies within eastern conus region/trough 

I’m less concerned about NAO blocking merging with west Atlantic perennial heights …—> cutter pattern. But like Feb 2007 if the ridge is berserker and backs SW, the polar jet forced through the TV region basal flow rate is over a 100kts.  S/Ws get absorbed as opposed to generating goodies  

The other aspect is… we are all hungry to get winter going as fans of the season and model cinema addicts (LOL). But seriously, there’s been no mentioning how NAO prognostics are still the biggest backstabber index forecast problem that exists to deterministic techniques in this field. I’ve been thinking about this but haven’t brought it up because the arctic oscillation, which is a little bit more dependable, has been exceptionally negative in the outlook from all guidance sources and techniques for quite some time and they obviously share domain space as does the North Pacific etc. etc. That tends to foot the NAO. 

You have said yourself that the mid-winter period is more prone to velocity saturation than the book ends of the season...that said, I would not have an issue with a string of mod events from sheared out, attenuating waves....those are how we get our best months of December. We would have had that last December if it were not for the largest RNA on record.

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