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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And this is how CC is able to mask itself in the populated sectors. 

Most people just see these days as unusual warm but pleasant whereas they'd be alarming in June-August

Really? Lol. So on Nov 2, 1950, when Concord NH hit 80, was that CC too... 72 years ago? Give it a break. Who cares what it is… it’s beautiful out. 

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2 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

can it just be warm without climate change?

 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Really? Lol. So on Nov 2, 1950, when Concord NH hit 80, was that CC too.  Give it a break. Who cares what it is… it’s beautiful out. 

Not really a debate for here, but it's more so the fact that we've challenged or broken all time November highs in 2020 and then again in 2022. The changing frequency of anomalous heat is more noteworthy than the heat itself (at least around these parts).

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14 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

can it just be warm without climate change?

When you break records, some of them all-time highs every year or two then it's not just a random warm period. 

It's getting to the point where every year all-time monthly or daily highs will get broken from just the year before. Also when's the last time you had two below normal months in a row or honestly even one. 

On the plus side the Euro is looking nice by next weekend 

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So what is it when we broke a record in 94 for snowfall in a season, and then did it again in 96..that’s CC too?  Then there was 2015.  Oh and in the 70’s it was a said a new ice age may be starting…??  
 

The record keeping(dataset) is too short imo..150 years or so worth of valid records vs 10’s of thousands of years of climate…ya call me a lil skeptical.   50 yrs from now it’ll be some other new theory.

Personally I like the extremes like this. It’ll all balance out in the end anyway. 

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So what is it when we broke a record in 94 for snowfall in a season, and then did it again in 96..that’s CC too?  Then there was 2015.  Oh and in the 70’s it was a said a new ice age may be starting…??  

The record keeping(dataset) is too short imo..150 years or so worth of valid records vs 10’s of thousands of years of climate…ya call me a lil skeptical.   50 yrs from now it’ll be some other new theory.

Personally I like the extremes like this. It’ll all balance out in the end anyway. 

Warm records though vastly outnumber cold records.  I think the issue is it’s a) become political and b) people are tired of hearing it because it triggers a secondary “why” or “what does it mean” aspect.  People also bring it up in a manner that annoys folks.

We are undoubtably getting warmer, we don’t have to argue about the why or what it means… but it is what it is.

We can still set cold records, but it gets warm a lot easier and it continues to be so. It is what it is, doesn’t have to make anyone mad, upset, sad, happy… it can just be.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Warm records though vastly outnumber cold records.  I think the issue is it’s a) become political and b) people are tired of hearing it because it triggers a secondary “why” or “what does it mean” aspect.

We are undoubtably getting warmer, we can argue about the why or what it means but it is what it is.

We can still set cold records, but it gets warm a lot easier and it continues to be so. It is what it is, doesn’t have to make anyone mad, upset, sad, happy… it can just be.

Point a for the win...it's political...you can agreed that there is undisputable evidence that over the period of records we have access to (150 years??), the temp graph is up and to the right and also agree that not every so called "extreme" weather event is CC rearing it's ugly face.  

 

More importantly, GEFS says snow guns on for the season starting next weekend...Game on.

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So what is it when we broke a record in 94 for snowfall in a season, and then did it again in 96..that’s CC too?  Then there was 2015.  Oh and in the 70’s it was a said a new ice age may be starting…??  
 

The record keeping(dataset) is too short imo..150 years or so worth of valid records vs 10’s of thousands of years of climate…ya call me a lil skeptical.   50 yrs from now it’ll be some other new theory.

Personally I like the extremes like this. It’ll all balance out in the end anyway. 

There are two answers that apply to this.   

1    Yes  ...how?  it's mathematically proven that warm air holds more water vapor.   As the planetary atmosphere has warmed over the last 30 years, vapor content has been measured to be more.  That's proving the math prediction.  But that is interesting in the vicinity of mechanisms that cause precipitation.  Snow and rain results get heavier.  And that is true in winter too - one has to understand, that winter storm snowfall is happening because there is an injection from a warm/humid source.  If that source has more water, it will snow more. Viola! bigger winters/ storms.  

2    climate change is not happening along a linear trajectory.  What that means is... it's been accelerating. Crude model: if you have 2 heat waves during year one, you'll get 4 during year five ... 8 during year 10.   That's just an example, mind you, of the acceleration.   In real life, it is what ever it is, but it is not linear.  That acceleration, makes it bad for a lot of obvious reasons.  1970s do not apply, because it's apples and oranges due to the being prior to a lot of the curved upward trajectory. 

When I hear deniers... try to supply that narrative, it irks me that it doesn't come off as skepticism. It sounds tactically divisive because the word choice and turn of phrase is clearly avoidance. That masquerades as skepticism.

The current paradigm of humanity is doomed.  What ever emerges on the other side will be enlightened and better off, or stopped existing. 

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31 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Point a for the win...it's political...you can agreed that there is undisputable evidence that over the period of records we have access to (150 years??), the temp graph is up and to the right and also agree that not every so called "extreme" weather event is CC rearing it's ugly face.  

More importantly, GEFS says snow guns on for the season starting next weekend...Game on.

Yup it’s the phrasing of it.

If someone is like “hey, all these warm records seem to be a good indication that we are in a warming period of our natural environmental system” people do not respond the same as if it’s said otherwise.

That evokes a different reaction than the phrase “climate change.”  Which has this insinuation that we need to take action.

Even in your post it brought about the word “ugly”… it’s such a loaded phrase :lol:.  Nothing ugly about today.

Call it a global warm period, lol.

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From BTV.

&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...It`s been a record warm day across the North Country and Vermont with several climate stations breaking high max AND high min temperatures for the calendar day. We`ll have a breakdown of that later in a record report once the day ends.

 

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There are two answers that apply to this.   

1    Yes  ...how?  it's mathematically proven that warm air holds more water vapor.   As the planetary atmosphere has warmed over the last 30 years, vapor content has been measured to be more.  That's proving the math prediction.  But that is interesting in the vicinity of mechanisms that cause precipitation.  Snow and rain results get heavier.  And that is true in winter too - one has to understand, that winter storm snowfall is happening because there is an injection from a warm/humid source.  If that source has more water, it will snow more. Viola! bigger winters/ storms.  

2    climate change is not happening along a linear trajectory.  What that means is... it's been accelerating. Crude model: if you have 2 heat waves during year one, you'll get 4 during year five ... 8 during year 10.   That's just an example, mind you, of the acceleration.   In real life, it is what ever it is, but it is not linear.  That acceleration, makes it bad for a lot of obvious reasons.  1970s do not apply, because it's apples and oranges due to the being prior to a lot of the curved upward trajectory. 

When I hear deniers... try to supply that narrative, it irks me that it doesn't come off as skepticism. It sounds tactically divisive because the word choice and turn of phrase is clearly avoidance. That masquerades as skepticism.

The current paradigm of humanity is doomed.  What ever emerges on the other side will be enlightened and better off, or stopped existing. 

I’m not masquerading anything Tip. And I couldn’t care less if you believe one way or another. You have the right to believe as you wish. And so do I.
 

This could just very well be a warm period that happens every 3 or 4 hundred years, or every 3 or 4 thousand years. See, we just don’t know if that is what it is, because we only have a measly 150 years or so worth of records.  and that’s my whole point. May not be anything more than a periodic spike that happens in the vast long scheme of things…nobody really knows if this is the case, cuz we’ve only been keeping track for such a short blip of time. 
 

Again, I really don’t care. It’s does not worry me one bit. I’m not masquerading anything. I’m not denying anything…I just don’t think we have enough info during our short time of record keeping to be sure of anything.  That’s my take on this. And I will not discuss it any further, because it just doesn’t matter much to me what it is. 
 

It’s gorgeous out. It’s gonna get much cooler soon, and it’s going to snow this winter, oh and it’s going to get cold too. All is right with the world. That’s good enough for me.
 

Now Let’s carry on with the more important things. 

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43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There are two answers that apply to this.   

1    Yes  ...how?  it's mathematically proven that warm air holds more water vapor.   As the planetary atmosphere has warmed over the last 30 years, vapor content has been measured to be more.  That's proving the math prediction.  But that is interesting in the vicinity of mechanisms that cause precipitation.  Snow and rain results get heavier.  And that is true in winter too - one has to understand, that winter storm snowfall is happening because there is an injection from a warm/humid source.  If that source has more water, it will snow more. Viola! bigger winters/ storms.  

2    climate change is not happening along a linear trajectory.  What that means is... it's been accelerating. Crude model: if you have 2 heat waves during year one, you'll get 4 during year five ... 8 during year 10.   That's just an example, mind you, of the acceleration.   In real life, it is what ever it is, but it is not linear.  That acceleration, makes it bad for a lot of obvious reasons.  1970s do not apply, because it's apples and oranges due to the being prior to a lot of the curved upward trajectory. 

When I hear deniers... try to supply that narrative, it irks me that it doesn't come off as skepticism. It sounds tactically divisive because the word choice and turn of phrase is clearly avoidance. That masquerades as skepticism.

The current paradigm of humanity is doomed.  What ever emerges on the other side will be enlightened and better off, or stopped existing. 

Tip, you should do a fiction book on climate change with the end being humans being wiped and out and whatever comes out the other end, your imagination is better than mine.

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