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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha they do, but I feel pretty good about the look. We'll see how things break, but no piggy is always a good thing.

I don't mind how it looks either really, We need some blocking to slow things down, The pig is almost like taking a dagger to the heart for most especially if it wants to sit on ones face for an extended period of time so that in itself is a plus not having it appear.

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Pattern talk is usually boring when there's no imminent threat to track....it's where all the melts come from because we're used to pattern talk in mid-winter and we often associate "pattern is changing for the better" talk in mid-winter as us enduring a dead/unfavorable period prior to that, so when we discuss it in November, there's this reflexive reaction that we're "Wasting weeks" when in this case, that is not correct. It's kind of hard to "Waste climo" in November unless you are in the mountains of NNE.

Flipping the pattern to more favorable for cold/snow in December should make winter enthusiasts happy versus 10 days earlier. Most people on here should probably root for it to be pushed out to 12/10 or something as very early December is still quite hostile.

 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let's face it....for many, it doesn't matter what the ensembles show. The snowfall is the only thing that matters and ensembles won't tell you a lot about that more than a week into the future. They can just tell us if the pattern is more or less favorable for snow than the baseline.

 

Best to punt the next month 

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4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Cuz he has his own sub forum for his area. And the posters who live here in New England at least belong here. Just my opinion Bob.  I wouldn’t go to his sub forum, and throw a weenie tag on him or anybody else there.
 

It’s a kin to going to a dinner party, and dropping a duece in the hosts shi**er and not flushing it.  No class. 

 

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Love ya wolfie 

hotdog.jpg.b02e0b7ad7cd5a404d86b4bd9652798e.jpg

Good afternoon WW/Anthony. Winter Wolf, I fully understand, in respect to visitor courtesy between sub forums. Oh and Anthony I see newly married life has been extremely good to you. Stay well all and have an enjoyable Thanksgiving. As always

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah the ops are :cliff:

Euro too. Do yourselves a favor and avoid looking at them for a while.

Though on second glance you can see where the Euro is headed days 9-10

The next 7-10 days are going to be pretty ugly for winter enthusiasts....this was the original "relaxation period" that ensembles had back about 10 days ago, but then briefly tried to eliminate (causing dreams of permanent snow pack from Dec 1st-onward) before bringing it back the last few days.

But you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, as you said, even on the OP Euro. EPS just coming in now, but they look good too by 12/5.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The next 7-10 days are going to be pretty ugly for winter enthusiasts....this was the original "relaxation period" that ensembles had back about 10 days ago, but then briefly tried to eliminate (causing dreams of permanent snow pack from Dec 1st-onward) before bringing it back the last few days.

But you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, as you said, even on the OP Euro. EPS just coming in now, but they look good too by 12/5.

I’m not sure why people are so upset about a relaxation in a timeframe when our snow climo is garbage even in the best circumstances.

People should be happy things look to be turning a corner towards the second week of December when climo chances increase

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure why people are so upset about a relaxation in a timeframe when our snow climo is garbage even in the best circumstances.

People should be happy things look to be turning a corner towards the second week of December when climo chances increase

Yep...and I also wouldn't get expectations super high even when the pattern gets more favorable.

I think the key takeaways should be:

 

1. Models have been very volatile

2. Even if that look develops, it's not a guarantee of snow events. Esp near the coast.

3. It's a good thing that no AK vortex is showing up. So if we get frustrated initially, there's a good chance we will have more shots going forward at our latitude as long as no piggy is showing up.

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