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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast. 

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6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

That cannot possibly be good new for Tampa or Fort Myers, for Tampa it makes the northern eyewall get dangerously close or hit them and for Myers it just increases the already bonkers surge. 

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6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

Yes, almost due N movement with a tick east from time to time. Maybe the frictional effects will drag the center or at least eyewall onshore. But that Venice to Punta Gorda area is in huge trouble. Maybe Sarasota if it keeps the due N movement. I wonder if St Pete will have problems later with the N/NE reverse storm surge? 

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast. 

I'm factoring in the SSE to NNW coast orientation to say that 15 miles west of that forecast from 11 PM, should it hold through landfall, would mean a lot more than 15 miles further NNW up the coast for landfall.

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9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

Every deviation also changes who gets the excessive rainfall. 

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000
WTNT64 KNHC 281358
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...10 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN 
FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that hurricane-force winds are approaching the coast of Florida near 
Sanibel Island.  The Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers 
recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Based on current trends - just my opinion but I'm targeting the area near Englewood or just south of there for landfall.  Irrelevant for most things except wind direction and max surge values.  Barrier islands from Captiva up to Englewood area are going to get hit very hard.  Anybody who stayed on those barrier islands better be in a WELL constructed structure on pilings of 12' or more.  Area from Charlotte Harbor to Ft. Myers and associated canals etc. need to brace for at least 12' of storm surge and perhaps more.

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This was shared elsewhere by a friend but this is truly indicative of how horrific conditions are about to be on the west coast of Florida. 

Combined with the copious amounts of lightning still showing up in the eyewall and the clearing of the eye on various Sat imagery, there's a good shot this hits that historic Cat 5 designation as it makes LF. 

To be fair, the friction of LF may just tighten this enough to do so

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28 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Better to utilize Old Port Tampa Bay gauge for "Tampa area"

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=tbw&gage=optf1

Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected?

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4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

This was shared elsewhere by a friend but this is truly indicative of how horrific conditions are about to be on the west coast of Florida. 

Combined with the copious amounts of lightning still showing up in the eyewall and the clearing of the eye on various Sat imagery, there's a good shot this hours that historic Cat 5 designation as it makes LF. 

To be fair, the friction of LF may just tighten this enough to do so

Sounds like hyperbole, but an apt metaphor is a tsunami. Nature abhors a vacuum.

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2 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected?

Irma pulled the bay WAY out of Tampa in 2017 but little to no big surge followed as the storm went in too far south...so not always a prelude to something bad. 

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3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Eye still looks great on radar, and still plenty of lightning too. 

Screenshot_2022-09-28-10-01-19-51_d742e5e24846c0b0ac98c1cecc909937.jpg

Seeing a bit of a move east recently and the eastern eyewall look a little healthier probably helped by friction. This is about to go WAY downhill from Captiva on north. 

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41 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late.

The go bag is to take with them when national guard rescues them. 

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4 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Will the result of the negative surge be similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Pontchartrain where after the storm passed the surge came back the other way with a vengeance? If so, what would the guess be as to how bad Tampa could be affected?

The water would only really come back in like a surge if the wind switches direction to piling the water back in. Unfortunately for places like Charlotte Harbor, that’s where that mound of water is going, along with wherever the east eyewall hits. Tampa will still have a lot of problems from the 20” rain that might be falling there. 

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