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Heaviest rain of the day with this stationary band. Radar doesnt do it justice. Dumping now, closing in on 1" 
Daughter in Smithtown, up by the court buildings, just asked when the heavy rain is gonna stop... parking lot is flooding...

I said... just drive south of the LIE and you'll be fine...

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Yep, that same Greenlawn area getting crushed. Crazy that areas to our south have less than 1/4'
What's amazing is, statistically speaking, what we have experienced the last 3 months is incredibly rare...

This likely is a 1 in 100 year event...

We are experiencing weather history...

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2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Haha with these tight gradients you guys are seeing I could only imagine the explosion of emotions it would be if it was so close between 3" and a foot of snow that you could pretty much see it. We would hear the screaming all the way up here :lmao:

Not to mention 50x as many "bust" calls before the event even begins...

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Haha with these tight gradients you guys are seeing I could only imagine the explosion of emotions it would be if it was so close between 3" and a foot of snow that you could pretty much see it. We would hear the screaming all the way up here :lmao:
5 years ago... that same location, only 5 miles NNE of me had 36" of snow, while we had 20"...

The first foot for them was all rain by me...

It really is incredible the difference only a few miles makes from the shore...

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The slow-moving front responsible for today's rainfall is gradually moving eastward. Some additional showers are likely tomorrow. Temperatures will remain somewhat below normal.

The ongoing intense heatwave will continue into Thursday in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

Bakersfield, CA: 115° (old record: 111°, 1904) ***Tied September record***
Boise: 101° (old record: 98°, 1955)
Cheyenne: 95° (old record: 91°, 1978, 1998, 2013 and 2020)
Death Valley, CA: 125° (old record: 123°, 2020 ***Tied September record***
Denver: 98° (old record: 97° (2013 and 2020)
Las Vegas: 110° (tied record set in 1979)
Phoenix: 110° (tied record set in 1979)
Redding, CA: 115° (old record: 111°, 2020)
Reno: 106° (old record: 96°, 1944, 1998 and 2021) ***New September record***
Sacramento: 114° (old record: 109°, 2020) ***Tied September record set yesterday)
Salt Lake City: 106° (old record: 98°, 2013) ***New September record***
San Jose: 109° (old record: 105°, 2020) ***New all-time record***
St. George, UT: 111° (old record: 110°, 2020) ***Tied September record***
Stockton, CA: 114° (old record: 110°, 2020) ***New September record***
Ukiah, CA: 117° (old record: 113°, 2020) ***New all-time record***

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +18.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.347 today.

On September 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.591 (RMM). The September 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.632 (RMM).

 

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