Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,006
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and very warm.  High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 88°

It will turn cooler tomorrow. A sharp cold shot is likely after midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.7°

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. 

New run for today 

0D39CBEE-F0E6-4DDF-85D0-243DC8493893.thumb.png.8d4925482901fd3be463d6983dd77139.png

Old run much warmer

 

7E75F5F6-520F-4CAA-BDFF-541A40412263.thumb.png.dd6e82108e49844a3f1731015d8dca94.png
 

Cool down for later in week

40626C32-2CA1-4348-B216-2A8AAAB36320.thumb.png.4f9c3da34eff4dba8a5cf4a235369c0a.png

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging  69degs.(61/77) or +2.

Month to date is  72.8[+1.4].          Should be  71.6[+1.6] by the 27th.

Reached 84 here yesterday.

Today:  82-86, wind w., clouding up, rain by 6pm?, 67 tomorrow AM.

70*(85%RH) here at 7am.      71* at 9am.      77* at Noon.      80* at 1pm.     Reached 84* at 4pm.        Quick Rain at 5:30pm.     72* at 6pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. 

New run for today 

0D39CBEE-F0E6-4DDF-85D0-243DC8493893.thumb.png.8d4925482901fd3be463d6983dd77139.png

Old run much warmer

 

7E75F5F6-520F-4CAA-BDFF-541A40412263.thumb.png.dd6e82108e49844a3f1731015d8dca94.png
 

Cool down for later in week

40626C32-2CA1-4348-B216-2A8AAAB36320.thumb.png.4f9c3da34eff4dba8a5cf4a235369c0a.png

 

Never trust the GFS with temps in the LR-seems to have a warm bias in the summer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Never trust the GFS with temps in the LR-seems to have a warm bias in the summer

That’s a given but the GEM and Euro were just as hot. The blocking verified stronger. So we get a +10 day instead of +15 to +20. That’s what passes for cooler in our warming climate. 
 

Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
September 19, 2022
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 77 93 in 1983 62 in 1987
Min Temperature M 60 70 in 2016 44 in 1959

E2B0B5A9-5563-4B5B-837E-52E46730831C.thumb.png.3bf23eba3ebbaf48f3ac59f215e4ce09.png
BE2DF340-0648-4651-893D-E1ADD00F078E.thumb.png.cfc74b1031cf4749782ee4b3eb88724e.png


 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No place for feelings in science, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting fall/winter one way or another. 
 

With the strong SH stratospheric cooling and the climate system’s tendency toward balance, maybe we get some stratospheric warming up here and a weakened PV (there was some correlation shown in an article linked a ways back, was interesting if nothing else). Or maybe the extra water vapor broadly keeps things slightly warmer. 
 

In other threads here I saw some speculation about a -NAO Dec with a potential fast start to winter (perhaps front loaded), but I remember last Dec originally being forecasted cold and, yeah big nope. Prob smarter to always assume we’ll be in shorts and flip flops Xmas day lol. 
 

One things for sure, after this consistently hot summer I’m well prepared to enjoy some cool crisp air, so I’m looking forward to the cold front and cooldown however long it lasts. Great hiking weather and my favorite time of year to be outside. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

74/ 64 and on way to upper 80s.  Clouds likely in the way of a late season hot 90 at the warmer spots.  Already area of clouds and showers pushing into C-PA and should arrive here by 12:30 - 2:00PM (mainly the clouds not many showers).  Outside chance of 90 but likely capped 87-89.  Riding the rim of the huge ridge centered over the TX/OK border and with it a wave of low pressure will bring some rain/storms into NY state and New England Mon PM  Tue (9/20.  Warm back up Wed (9/21) and again outside chance of a over performer coupled with recent dryness.  Other wise the front and with rain / storms will cap Thu even with 850s of >18c into the upper 70s low 80s. 

By the end of this week and coming weekend, the coolest air of the season Fri (9/23) - Sun (9/25) arrives. 40s for inland areas at night.  Warms back up by next Mon (9/26) before the next cool down towards the end of next week / Sep.  Beyond there do we head back into a relatively overall warmer by a bit after the open of next month with riding pushing into the east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Pouring in the UWS, not sure how in the world the NWS went with a 30% pop in their afternoon update considering how the radar looked!

It was because the models had been showing almost nothing. I was surprised when radar was looking that good. You're right, you have to adjust and increase the rain chance in the forecast when radar shows that the models were wrong. I had a pretty good downpour with some wind here too.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...