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August 2022


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On 8/28/2022 at 3:09 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


Unfortunately if you see an oak that has turned brown it’s dead. Some other trees like red maples for example will turn yellow and gradually shed leaves. Those may survive. But overall this is extremely serious. I don’t even want to think about what another hot dry two weeks will do


.

I've always wondered why the oak trees on the south Shore are so small, thin and not too tall. I've always assumed storm damage and winds but maybe cyclical droughts cause them to die off now and then..

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1 hour ago, Fantom X said:

I've always wondered why the oak trees on the south Shore are so small, thin and not too tall. I've always assumed storm damage and winds but maybe cyclical droughts cause them to die off now and then..

Near the barrier islands, many trees died from saltwater inundation during Sandy. In Long Beach there are very few tall trees anymore, most are newly planted after Sandy. We had a major nor'easter in March 2010 with 75-80mph winds that also destroyed many trees. But what trees there are on the south shore look awful in general this summer. 

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37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Line looks
Beautiful over Pa currently. I’m fact the best organized squall line of the season. It is coming a little late, with the dry ground, let’s see what makes it


.

Already showing signs of peaking.  Doubt much is left by 8:00 or so.  NJ counties that border PA stand best chance at something meaningful.  Maybe some .50" amounts there.  Elsewhere .25" or less I think.

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35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Line looks
Beautiful over Pa currently. I’m fact the best organized squall line of the season. It is coming a little late, with the dry ground, let’s see what makes it


.

Sorry to tell you this however the short term models have this feature running out of gas as it crosses the Delaware River.  I am not even certain it gets as far  east as my location.

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There are ancient fault lines deep underground along the eastern seaboard from when we were stapled into Pangea. Every so often there’s a minor slippage of the otherwise dead faults and you get small intraplate quakes. There’s areas where very large intraplate quakes can happen but I don’t believe our area is at risk for that. Check out the 1811 New Madrid magnitude 7.1-8.1 earthquakes that occurred near the southern tip of Missouri. Massive, major quakes in an unusual location. Ancient fault from millions of years ago. 
 

Also interesting, the Appalachians were the Mesozoic Himalayas and were once every bit as tall if not taller, now of course little more than eroded remnant hills. 

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A very warm August is concluding. Tomorrow will again see above normal temperatures.

Newark is on track to record its second warmest summer on record. There is some chance it could see its warmest summer on record. Philadelphia will see either its second or third warmest summer on record.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue through at least much of the first week of September.

An intense heatwave that will continue into early September is now evolving in parts of the western U.S. and Canada. Portland reached 99°, which surpassed the record of 98° that was set in 1987. Salt Lake City reached 101°, which surpassed the old record set in 1954. Seattle reached 90° breaking the record of 88° from 1987. It was also Seattle's 12th 90° day of the year, which tied the record for most such days from 2015.

Boise and Salt Lake City could see temperatures approach or reach September records. Death Valley will likely see multiple 120° or hotter days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +18.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.563 today.

On August 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.865 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.930 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (3.3° above normal).

 

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20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's pouring here now. Some wind gusts in the 30s and some lightning. Decent storm ... I'm so glad the line held together.

My mom in Piscataway said it was pouring.   Looked good on radar.  Interested in your total.  Only .09" here, your cell missed to my south by about 2 miles.

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