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August Discussion/Obs


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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you guys remember that fantastic 'pollen squall' event this last spring.  I think it was latter May ... but that product Brian posted above reminds me of that BD event.   It came through with winds gusting to 35 mph and 1/4 mi visibility tree sperm... 

Here it is up here on June 7th.  Not as bad as down there but the first time I had ever seen this

https://video.nest.com/clip/1b7dd1b198494caa95df188caab98ca2.mp4

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I guess...

compromise?  

Longer read for anyone interested:

A glaring difference between these runs is the handling of several synoptic metrics over eastern Ontario thru Quebec from late Sunday through mid week. 

The GFS ends up with a 1026 mb polar high... replete with pooling the size of Texas of DPs in the mid to upper 30s N of Maine by Tuesday morning...

image.png.81774922f09f466b332719e931140db6.png

The Euro does not have nearly that much sfc pressure, nor the pooling - DPs around 50 in that same area.

image.png.120952ebc76ab9d86f45bb8df672d65c.png

So naturally... if the GFS is going to succeed in a 1024+ mb polar high passing through that region ( the Euro does not have) it is not only going to 925 mb a CAD jet into the area, it is going to also pull from that large region of much drier DPs and drill that into an erstwhile raining/convective debris over eastern NH/ME...and there we go.  It's like the GFS is a giant A.C. processor.  It's also odd how the GFS holds the hydrostats so lofty while mixing the BL down to autumnal normals by 18z Tuesday per that 06z run... It's either an exceptionally ( albeit harmless) rare result, or something's amiss

The GFS is suspect to me because it is still deeply within the vegetating boreal summer landscape, below the taiga belt. Whatever processes the GFS thinks will set all that up, its not clear it is enough/how it offsets that continent/evapotran factor, enough to manifest that much dry lower troposphere over Quebec. 

Interesting test.  This could not be more black and white between those two guidance sources.

 

When Tip warns “longer read”, watch out.

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20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is a late Mon BD, Tue recovery, and then a Wed weak cold fropa. Then the cooler airmass moves in late week.

noticed this ... yeah

Thing is, the Monday idea, it had that three runs ago but dump it... It's been stably non-BD interference on that day until this run ...which brought it partially back.  

It's a weird call because the standard 101 deterministic requirement of continuity doesn't apply with BDs... It's a phenomenon that is not terribly well resolved by even the higher resolution models ( though advancements have improved markedly over 20 years ago..etc) so it's more likely that detection at all is as important -

Euro'll be interesting

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39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is a late Mon BD, Tue recovery, and then a Wed weak cold fropa. Then the cooler airmass moves in late week.

BTV already on the COC watch next week.

“Cold front should be through by Friday with high pressure gradually moving east from the Great Lakes for a Chamber of Commerce day with sunshine, light winds and temperatures in the 70s and Friday night lows in the 40s/50s. &&

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10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

In all honesty, what do people like about this weather?

Reminds me of long summer days outdoors from childhood.   I also like dews for my skin and heat for the joints.  Hopefully my knee will allow me to take a 5 mile hike this afternoon.   Then a nice cold beer when I come home to the cool house.

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75/70  Shower just ending    .07"  heavy rain went just south of me.  These time lapses are fascinating to watch.  From clear skies this morning,  then the convective updrafts.  The showers just dump rain but the smallest of distance makes all the difference.

Here is the past 2 hours.  https://video.nest.com/clip/f0cdd0e33a664e1f9e2968e5c7ce32d5.mp4

 

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Does anyone know how deep the NOAA buoys sample the temperatures ?

I'm looking at the station temp at 44005 ( for ex) which is out there in the GOM E of PWM ...and they're putting up a 76F  :huh:  

Then I looked at 44098, which is 20 or miles ENE of Cape Ann and their putting up a 73 - wtf.    I've never seen that... 

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