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July 2022


bluewave
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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Weird looking watch "box"

 

ww0502_radar_big.gif

I think the chances of any meaningful rainfall going forward today across NJ is very low.  Not a good thing as rest of the week does not offer much.  Parts of NJ are almost certainly going to bounce into D1 conditions this week or next.

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38 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I don't think anyone is tossing New Brunswick though.  I think their numbers are accurate in 2022.  

I was in East Brunswick on Saturday and my car read 102 just after driving in a residential area. felt like it too

I think EWR is actually a pretty good representation of the UHI and other densely populated areas in NE NJ as well as SI, Brooklyn, and Queens away from the immediate coast

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Since I am doing research involving the NYC data base, I would be interested in thoughts about how long the tree canopy issue has possibly been affecting temperatures and by what amount, also could we say it was an issue only during foliation season? How strong a wind negates it? 

My belief is that the July 1936 heat wave would have registered something well over 100 F even in today's setting, but that aside, I am looking at comparing data with urban effects considered, and this tree canopy issue is an urban effect in the opposite direction to the urban heat island. My comparisons assumed a gradual rise in the u.h.i. throughout the data set to 1980 and a level signal since 1980 (at some point the urban area gets so large that increases stop happening near its center and are observed further out). The adjustments are more relevant to minimum than maximum temperatures for urban heat islands (typically, if an urban heat island is on the order of 2 F deg, then the average increases will be 0.5 daytime and 3.5 overnight). 

So I am considering adjusting the urban filter that I applied to include this tree canopy issue, any suggestions? Or is there an argument to be made that larger tree canopies have spread through significant portions of the metropolitan area therefore this is just part of the historical trend and something not to be filtered out, since we don't filter out changes to the agriculture of the great plains etc.

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I don't know why this is a mystery or a debate. Of course it is likely to be a few degrees cooler in Central Park. If you have gone in on a summer morning you can feel the temperature drop when you get in. Whether that is more reflective of the "natural" or "built" environment that people experience is open for interpretation.

To Roger's point, I would also imagine this has been exacerbated over time. Bigger, mature trees in Central Park with likely continued pruning and building in the built areas. 

Anyone in the area knows that the trees in Riverside Park are becoming a serious problem - huge trees and branches fall with no provocation.

My own pic...

IMG_6111.thumb.jpg.e298ebdfc73fc93cd0723e52b6504b1e.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Since I am doing research involving the NYC data base, I would be interested in thoughts about how long the tree canopy issue has possibly been affecting temperatures and by what amount, also could we say it was an issue only during foliation season? How strong a wind negates it? 

My belief is that the July 1936 heat wave would have registered something well over 100 F even in today's setting, but that aside, I am looking at comparing data with urban effects considered, and this tree canopy issue is an urban effect in the opposite direction to the urban heat island. My comparisons assumed a gradual rise in the u.h.i. throughout the data set to 1980 and a level signal since 1980 (at some point the urban area gets so large that increases stop happening near its center and are observed further out). The adjustments are more relevant to minimum than maximum temperatures for urban heat islands (typically, if an urban heat island is on the order of 2 F deg, then the average increases will be 0.5 daytime and 3.5 overnight). 

So I am considering adjusting the urban filter that I applied to include this tree canopy issue, any suggestions? Or is there an argument to be made that larger tree canopies have spread through significant portions of the metropolitan area therefore this is just part of the historical trend and something not to be filtered out, since we don't filter out changes to the agriculture of the great plains etc.

urban heat island is enhanced by the suburb heat island and soon it will be one big island...I think using record lows from the 1800's only  show how cold it could get if everything was still trees and farms...start when electronics took over?...

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

About a Schenectady to just E of BGM to just NW of Williamsport line

Thank you! So it seems to me there is still plenty of time for a nice line of storms to form which you can see that happening currently north of BGM. Guess have to see if the line fills in south to Williamsport. Correct?

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