July 2022

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Burn baby burn. Cold fronts drop down, weak high pressure systems behind them get swallowed up by and absorbed into the W.A.R. This should give us 3 H's, near or over 100 degree heat for a day or two, and perhaps another prolonged heatwave.

WX/PT

 

[forkyfork]

21 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

due to diminishing sun angle the sun is having a hard time  warming through the clouds.

sun angle this

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

sun angle this

105+ in the cards?

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

105+ in the cards?

why not 110?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The Euro about a day slower bringing in the heat.

WX/PT

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

sun angle this

those gfs temps never verify for the city they are 5-10 degrees to high the further out in time you go..

[donsutherland1]

Final data for Newark's extreme heat event:

[bluewave]

This may have tied the 2nd longest heatwave on record in New Jersey at 14 days for Hillsborough-Duke. The heatwave included 4 days in the 100° to 102° range there. Newark had a heatwave which lasted 20 days in 1988. So this 14 day streak would tie the 2nd longest at Newark in 2010. Atlantic City had a 14 day heatwave in 1995.

Hillsborough-Duke 
https://www.njweather.org/data/daily/3572

Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-25	Mesonet	94	74	76	67	93	47	29.92	29.83	0.00	23	W
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-24	Mesonet	102	67	73	62	97	29	30.05	29.90	0.00	24	SW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-23	Mesonet	101	66	72	56	99	26	30.03	29.93	0.00	19	WNW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-22	Mesonet	99	70	70	57	92	28	29.94	29.73	0.00	20	SW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-21	Mesonet	100	69	76	63	98	33	29.74	29.62	0.00	26	WSW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-20	Mesonet	100	67	72	65	94	35	29.81	29.68	0.00	24	WSW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-19	Mesonet	94	70	71	64	91	40	29.83	29.74	0.00	23	WNW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-18	Mesonet	97	72	76	70	97	44	30.00	29.73	0.00	31	SW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-17	Mesonet	90	68	72	65	100	45	30.05	29.97	0.20	14	W
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-16	Mesonet	92	66	70	58	98	35	30.14	30.00	0.00	15	ESE
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-15	Mesonet	91	60	68	53	95	31	30.15	30.06	0.00	15	SSE
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-14	Mesonet	91	63	69	58	97	36	30.07	29.89	0.00	19	NW
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-13	Mesonet	93	67	70	58	95	36	29.91	29.76	0.00	16	W
▼ Hillsborough-Duke	NJ	2022-07-12	Mesonet	94	60	72	56	98	46	29.87	29.67	0.00	23	SW

Newark

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	20	1988-08-17
2	14	2010-07-29
3	12	1995-08-04
-	12	1972-07-25

Atlantic City

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	14	1995-08-05
2	10	2010-07-25
-	10	1983-07-21

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

why not 110?

Gfs does show 104-105 readings 

[Allsnow]

Ewr hit 100 today??? 
 

jk 

[Roger Smith]

On that subject of NYC tree canopy temperature reduction, this graph shows the effect quite clearly. 

The graph is the differential of average daily maximum at NYC (1991-2020) minus (1931-1990). I checked graphs for same differential starting 1996 and 2001, very little difference apparent. Clearly the warming of the climate that is evident November to early April is negated by some factor and I have to suppose it is the tree canopy shading. Will post the same analysis for minimum daily temperatures which shows a somewhat similar trend but without suppressing the summer half year entirely, which is what one might expect, cooler days eventually cancelling out to some extent by the different dynamics of nocturnal temperature patterns. I would regard the minimum annual graph as within the range of seasonal variability in the warming climate although perhaps with a residual effect from the cooler daytime readings. 

 

GRAPH: NYC max temp differentials (1991-2020) minus (1931-1990) averages

_ shows possible relative temperature suppression May to October _

 

[Roger Smith]

And here's part two, the same analysis for daily minimum temps at NYC ... it picks up the tendency for mid-May and early November to run colder than long-term averages, with several records set in those periods, but I don't think that has anything to do with tree canopies in Central Park. 

 

Otherwise would say this looks more like you would expect the warmer modern climate to look, certainly December and February have seen disproportionate warmings. 

The daily mean graph would be a compromise of the two shown. 

 

GRAPH: NYC min temp differentials (1991-2020) minus (1931-1990) averages

_ shows reduced to near absent relative temperature suppression May to October _

_ (more representative of generally warming climate trend with seasonal variation) _

 

[nycwinter]

nyc under performed on the daytime high temp today..

[lee59]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final data for Newark's extreme heat event:

So the 5 straight days of 100 actually tied the record. The 98.6 pretty much in line with past heat waves.

[bluewave]

The bottom line is that the tree growth since the 1990s has probably cost NYC at least 13 days a year reaching 90°. This is by the more conservative Newark figures. Faster warming along the lines of LGA would yield more than that number. So the Con Ed customers should probably be asking why their summer cooling bills aren’t going down like the Central Park 90° days?

NYC 90° day drop from 19 in the early 1960s to 16 in the early 2020s..should be 29 using more conservative Newark 90° day increase

-3

 

Newark 21 days to 31 days….+10

 

LGA 10 days to 25 days…+15

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

So the 5 straight days of 100 actually tied the record. The 98.6 pretty much in line with past heat waves.

No. The 1953 event didn't have 5 consecutive days over 100

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

So the 5 straight days of 100 actually tied the record. The 98.6 pretty much in line with past heat waves.

No. It broke the record. The earlier extreme heat event with 5 days did not have 5 consecutive days. It had 5 days in total.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny with seasonable temperatures. Temperatures will generally remain near orabove normal through the remainder of the month.

There is potential for significant heat to expand into the region late in the first week of August. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

In the Midwest, St. Louis picked up 8.64" rainfall today. That swept away the longstanding daily rainfall record of 6.85", which was set on August 20, 1915.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +7.02.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.074 today.

On July 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.419 (RMM). The July 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.504 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.7° (2.2° above normal).

 

[lee59]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

No. The 1953 event didn't have 5 consecutive days over 100

ok

 

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

No. It broke the record. The earlier extreme heat event with 5 days did not have 5 consecutive days. It had 5 days in total.

 

[forkyfork]

what a signal. maybe we'll get ring of fire activity as it retrogrades 

 

[Superstorm]

what a signal. maybe we'll get ring of fire activity as it retrogrades 
 

Brutal


.

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what a signal. maybe we'll get ring of fire activity as it retrogrades 

 

Can you please make it rain locally 

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can you please make it rain locally 

Thursdays looking better on the models 

[Roger Smith]

I am noticing that 1944 had a similar temperature outcome to what the GFS is advertising, four weeks from July 22 to Aug 18 inclusive looked like this, including a number of daily records in mid-August ...

 

DAILY MAX TEMPS JULY 22 to AUG 18 1944 _ AVERAGE 91.7 F

daily max ___ 89 93 93 94 91 93 91 87 91 90 90 81 83 100 101 89 80 85 88 97 102 97 96 95 95 96 95 85

After this temperatures were closer to average, peaked again around Sept 2nd and there was a major hurricane up the east coast in mid-September. 9.40" rain fell Sep 12-14 after a very dry interval mid-July to that event. 

Other years with significant heat in early to mid August before more recent examples would include 1896, 1916, 1918, 1930, 1949, 1955, the latter had hurricane strikes on the east coast almost concurrent with the heat. I would bet that if this GFS predicted pattern verifies, tropical activity will respond within a few weeks. 

The timing of this 1944 heat wave was such that it did not dominate either July or August so it is less recalled than some, but in terms of a non-calendar month of heat, it rivals anything else. 

[bluewave]

Strongest La Niña trade winds on record from late June into July. 

 

 

[CIK62]

CRAZIEST GFS RUN IN HISTORY?         Get Me A Ticket For a Jet Plane..................to Dallas!

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CRAZIEST GFS RUN IN HISTORY?         Get Me A Ticket For a Jet Plane..................to Dallas!

The gfs the is ridiculously warm in the medium range as it is cold in the winter….
 

It just defaults 100 after day 10 

[bluewave]

It’s easy to lose track of all these 500 to 1000 year rainfall events in recent years.

https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_aep

 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The gfs the is ridiculously warm in the medium range as it is cold in the winter….
 

It just defaults 100 after day 10 

Yeah it already backed off significantly next run however ensembles definitely suggest another major bout of heat late 1st week of August. 

Dry run makes it more likely we see more 100+ readings 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah it already backed off significantly next run however ensembles definitely suggest another major bout of heat late 1st week of August. 

Dry run makes it more likely we see more 100+ readings 

The operational models will go back and forth on the heat (or in the winter on the snowstorm) until 2-4 days from the event then kind of draw a line in the sand. The GFS sometimes draws and line in the sand at that point and is still wrong. The compelling factor here are the ensembles which have been and continue to be quite hot. That tilts the scale towards favoring more heat or even extreme heat.

WX/PT