Allsnow Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: what a signal. maybe we'll get ring of fire activity as it retrogrades Can you please make it rain locally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Can you please make it rain locally Thursdays looking better on the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 I am noticing that 1944 had a similar temperature outcome to what the GFS is advertising, four weeks from July 22 to Aug 18 inclusive looked like this, including a number of daily records in mid-August ... DAILY MAX TEMPS JULY 22 to AUG 18 1944 _ AVERAGE 91.7 F daily max ___ 89 93 93 94 91 93 91 87 91 90 90 81 83 100 101 89 80 85 88 97 102 97 96 95 95 96 95 85 After this temperatures were closer to average, peaked again around Sept 2nd and there was a major hurricane up the east coast in mid-September. 9.40" rain fell Sep 12-14 after a very dry interval mid-July to that event. Other years with significant heat in early to mid August before more recent examples would include 1896, 1916, 1918, 1930, 1949, 1955, the latter had hurricane strikes on the east coast almost concurrent with the heat. I would bet that if this GFS predicted pattern verifies, tropical activity will respond within a few weeks. The timing of this 1944 heat wave was such that it did not dominate either July or August so it is less recalled than some, but in terms of a non-calendar month of heat, it rivals anything else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2022 Author Share Posted July 26, 2022 Strongest La Niña trade winds on record from late June into July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 CRAZIEST GFS RUN IN HISTORY? Get Me A Ticket For a Jet Plane..................to Dallas! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, CIK62 said: CRAZIEST GFS RUN IN HISTORY? Get Me A Ticket For a Jet Plane..................to Dallas! The gfs the is ridiculously warm in the medium range as it is cold in the winter…. It just defaults 100 after day 10 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2022 Author Share Posted July 26, 2022 It’s easy to lose track of all these 500 to 1000 year rainfall events in recent years. https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_aep 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The gfs the is ridiculously warm in the medium range as it is cold in the winter…. It just defaults 100 after day 10 Yeah it already backed off significantly next run however ensembles definitely suggest another major bout of heat late 1st week of August. Dry run makes it more likely we see more 100+ readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 gorgeous night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah it already backed off significantly next run however ensembles definitely suggest another major bout of heat late 1st week of August. Dry run makes it more likely we see more 100+ readings The operational models will go back and forth on the heat (or in the winter on the snowstorm) until 2-4 days from the event then kind of draw a line in the sand. The GFS sometimes draws and line in the sand at that point and is still wrong. The compelling factor here are the ensembles which have been and continue to be quite hot. That tilts the scale towards favoring more heat or even extreme heat. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: CRAZIEST GFS RUN IN HISTORY? Get Me A Ticket For a Jet Plane..................to Dallas! Nice job on today???? lol how can it be that wrong on a three to six hour forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2022 Author Share Posted July 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Nice job on today???? lol how can it be that wrong on a three to six hour forecast The actual GFS forecast had low 80s for Manhattan today. Those weatherbell charts are always off. So it’s a quality control issue in the way they generate their model forecast charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Pretty sunset tonight. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 49 minutes ago, Nibor said: Pretty sunset tonight. Beautiful picture ! Stunning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 the nam looks nice for thursday. i refuse to believe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Following these models and the pending heat later next week is interesting tonight. Last night the CMC was much cooler and had backed off of the heat in the east. Tonight it is the GFS which is abbreviating any bit of heat with kind of a backdoor cold front. The extreme heat back into Minnesota on the GFS. But the CMC has almost come around to the last night's GFS. I think the deal is this. The question, the exact strength and position of the Western Atlantic Ridge and GFS I believe is having difficulty picking up on exactly that. It's placing W.A.R too far south and too weak thereby allowing high pressure to slowly work its way southward along the coast while the CMC has a robust W.A.R less suppressed and it is able to dominate any feather which tries to come south. As a result on the GFS tonight there's no genuine heatwave and no extreme heat. I think it's wrong but we'll see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2022 Author Share Posted July 27, 2022 The EPS and GEFS both agree on our next 100° potential in early August as a 594dm+ heat dome builds near the region. This is the kind of pattern where the OP models have a windshield wiper effect from 12z to 0z. One of the runs is always warmer but the ensemble mean holds steady with the strong heat signal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Feels good this morning with temperatures in the low 60s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Euro shows 102-108F temperatures by the 4-5th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 The last 5 days of July are averaging 82degs.[74/90] or +4. The month to date is 79.7[+2.2]. July should end at 80.0[+2.5]. Reached 82 here yesterday. Today: 82-86, wind s., p. cloudy. 75*(63%RH) here at 7am. 78* at Noon. 80* at 2pm. 81* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Quite a range of temperatures this morning with 50s in much of the Hudson Valley and closer to 70 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 85° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 88° Tomorrow will turn warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 86.1° Newark: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 88.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2022 Author Share Posted July 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, lee59 said: Quite a range of temperatures this morning with 50s in much of the Hudson Valley and closer to 70 in the city. I can remember after the 100° heat in July 1977 when NYC dropped into the 50s and POU the 40s. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 104 78 1977-07-22 88 68 1977-07-23 87 62 1977-07-24 90 70 1977-07-25 78 70 1977-07-26 82 62 1977-07-27 81 58 1977-07-28 80 62 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 100 72 1977-07-22 80 54 1977-07-23 84 48 1977-07-24 90 56 1977-07-25 75 63 1977-07-26 76 52 1977-07-27 76 47 1977-07-28 78 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: I can remember after the 100° heat in July 1977 when NYC dropped into the 50s and POU the 40s. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 104 78 1977-07-22 88 68 1977-07-23 87 62 1977-07-24 90 70 1977-07-25 78 70 1977-07-26 82 62 1977-07-27 81 58 1977-07-28 80 62 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 100 72 1977-07-22 80 54 1977-07-23 84 48 1977-07-24 90 56 1977-07-25 75 63 1977-07-26 76 52 1977-07-27 76 47 1977-07-28 78 47 The cooler temps this morning are not lasting to long, I am already up to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2022 Author Share Posted July 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, lee59 said: The cooler temps this morning are not lasting to long, I am already up to 70. Yeah, textbook rapid warm up after the radiational cooling inversion. https://theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/720/ At night, the ground emits longwave radiation while not absorbing solar shortwave radiation. This causes a cooling of the Earth’s surface. The Earth’s surface in turn cools the air just above it. This process is most intense when there are clear skies and light wind. The diagram below shows characteristics of the radiational cooling inversion. The inversion layer is shallow and the temperature warms rapidly with height above the ground surface. These situations can cause low temperatures to be colder than expected at the surface. It can also result in a very rapid warm up when the sun comes up since, along with the solar warming, the convective turbulence will pick up causing the much warmer air aloft to mix out the shallow cold air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 12 hours ago, CIK62 said: CRAZIEST GFS RUN IN HISTORY? Get Me A Ticket For a Jet Plane..................to Dallas! I'll get you a jet plane ticket to get you stop posting nonsense! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 14 hours ago, Roger Smith said: I am noticing that 1944 had a similar temperature outcome to what the GFS is advertising, four weeks from July 22 to Aug 18 inclusive looked like this, including a number of daily records in mid-August ... DAILY MAX TEMPS JULY 22 to AUG 18 1944 _ AVERAGE 91.7 F daily max ___ 89 93 93 94 91 93 91 87 91 90 90 81 83 100 101 89 80 85 88 97 102 97 96 95 95 96 95 85 After this temperatures were closer to average, peaked again around Sept 2nd and there was a major hurricane up the east coast in mid-September. 9.40" rain fell Sep 12-14 after a very dry interval mid-July to that event. Other years with significant heat in early to mid August before more recent examples would include 1896, 1916, 1918, 1930, 1949, 1955, the latter had hurricane strikes on the east coast almost concurrent with the heat. I would bet that if this GFS predicted pattern verifies, tropical activity will respond within a few weeks. The timing of this 1944 heat wave was such that it did not dominate either July or August so it is less recalled than some, but in terms of a non-calendar month of heat, it rivals anything else. the summer of 1944 was hot and dry...then September had a deluge from a hurricane...the winter of 44-45 was very cold...average snow... other hot dry Summers with a fall deluge were 1966, 1977, 1999 and 2005... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2022 Author Share Posted July 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: the summer of 1944 was hot and dry...then September had a deluge from a hurricane...the winter of 44-45 was very cold...average snow... other hot dry Summers with a fall deluge were 1966, 1977, 1999 and 2005... We probably have to wait a while longer this season for a drought busting tropical system. Much slower start to this year than the last two. The thick SAL layer continues to dominate the tropics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 61 this morning, feels great outside. Already up to 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: I can remember after the 100° heat in July 1977 when NYC dropped into the 50s and POU the 40s. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 104 78 1977-07-22 88 68 1977-07-23 87 62 1977-07-24 90 70 1977-07-25 78 70 1977-07-26 82 62 1977-07-27 81 58 1977-07-28 80 62 Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 100 72 1977-07-22 80 54 1977-07-23 84 48 1977-07-24 90 56 1977-07-25 75 63 1977-07-26 76 52 1977-07-27 76 47 1977-07-28 78 47 NYC hardly every gets below 60 in July and August now days...so far July's min is 65...near the top for highest July monthly min... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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