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July 2022


bluewave
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50 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

1.) Intuition from a Real Live Meteorologist :rolleyes:

I selected six stations in the region to compare to Newark's monthly mean maximum (high temperature. That included four ASOS stations at Trenton-Mercer Airport, Atlantic City International Airport, Central Park in New York City, and Philadelphia International Airport. :rolleyes:

tossed

 

 

Screenshot_20220725-103348_Chrome.jpg

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55 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

1.) Intuition from a Real Live Meteorologist :rolleyes:

I selected six stations in the region to compare to Newark's monthly mean maximum (high temperature. That included four ASOS stations at Trenton-Mercer Airport, Atlantic City International Airport, Central Park in New York City, and Philadelphia International Airport. :rolleyes:

tossed

 

It’s 101.5 what do you expect?

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Still a good 4 - 5 hours before this batch of storms/clouds pushes through and that is assuming no new storms pop.  Bottom line its going to be close for more 90s today.  But 850 temps are still >20c and any sun could do it.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

I'd give it at this point a 50% chance for Central Park. The point is that the front isn't getting here until overnight and we do not know exactly where the heaviest rain will fall as this first batch of showers/storms moves through. There could be a break and skies could partially clear out for an hour or two this afternoon in between showers/storms and it could get to 90. 

WX/PT

 

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1 hour ago, BlizzLuv said:

I hope the storms pan out for us too. We really need the rain. We were in a dry gap with last week's storms and probably has been a month or more since we received significant rainfall in Hillsborough.

I saw the MIllstone River near Griggstown was a peculiar shade of bright green on Saturday, and later saw an online article that there is toxic algae bloom. It actually is a bacteria and not algae. I presume the heat and lack of rain have help cultivate that and believe a strong rain will flush it out.

I'm only at .40" for the month right next door in Branchburg.

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19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Screenshot_20220725-103348_Chrome.jpg

Amazing how identical it can be on "good days" and how it stands out on the other days.... nothing looks awry to me.. if it was way higher versus what other ones did, and often, OK that's different but it's not.. it follows the graph in general. 

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Montioring an area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms,
across Upstate NY and PA as it tracks north and east in
association with a pre-frontal trough. Cloud cover is increasing
and skies will go overcast as it nears, and this throws some
uncertainty into exactly when and where any potential severe
threat materializes this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
rebounding instability behind this rain, and CAMs hint at new
convection firing and tracking east later today. No significant
changes for now, though adjusted temps and PoPs in the near
term to account for the incoming rain.
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Just now, wthrmn654 said:
Montioring an area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms,
across Upstate NY and PA as it tracks north and east in
association with a pre-frontal trough. Cloud cover is increasing
and skies will go overcast as it nears, and this throws some
uncertainty into exactly when and where any potential severe
threat materializes this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
rebounding instability behind this rain, and CAMs hint at new
convection firing and tracking east later today. No significant
changes for now, though adjusted temps and PoPs in the near
term to account for the incoming rain.

We've seen this happen a million times before. Morning convection kills our afternoon chances

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

1.) Intuition from a Real Live Meteorologist :rolleyes:

I selected six stations in the region to compare to Newark's monthly mean maximum (high temperature. That included four ASOS stations at Trenton-Mercer Airport, Atlantic City International Airport, Central Park in New York City, and Philadelphia International Airport. :rolleyes:

tossed

 

The problem is you lose credibility as a Real Live Professional when you harass members like you did to me yesterday.

 

I love hearing what you guys think, but the public harassment I have witnessed and the many deletions I have received when I had a question about a post of yours puts you into the unprofessional (at least on this forum) category.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Newark NJ thermometer just hit 100° five days in a row – but it’s wrong

https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/

He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below.

 

In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat.

Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. 

Data for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 97
2022-07-21 99
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 100
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102

 

Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 98
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 100
2022-07-24 101
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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below.

 

In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat.

Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. 

Data for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 97
2022-07-21 99
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 100
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102

 

Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 98
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 100
2022-07-24 101

harrison was more affected by convection on thursday

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below.

 

In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat.

Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. 

Data for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 97
2022-07-21 99
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 100
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102

 

Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 98
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 100
2022-07-24 101

No one says a word when FOX is 15-20 colder than ISP on radiational cooling nights.   But when EWR is 1-3 degrees warmer than other stations in the area people have a big issue with it.  You have to wonder why that is.

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26 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

harrison was more affected by convection on thursday

That’s right. The heatwave wasn’t that bad theme was very active on Twitter and other sites this weekend. The dense vegetation growth since the 90s in Central Park seldom gets mentioned. This is really where the NWS needs to step in. There have been numerous posts in recent years on various websites stating that heatwaves in recent years haven’t that bad because NYC was cooler and more reliable. The NYC thermometer wasn’t in the deep shade when many of the older records were set.

 

Record heat this afternoon: from the NY Times: Daily record high temperature, since Central Park 106°F set in Dust Bowl of 1936.


Tree growth around the NYC ASOS in recent years

41A47E4C-BF27-4A6F-86DA-905A3D1820AE.thumb.jpeg.572aeeb6151fd65023e01f2e10bdbfd1.jpeg
 

Original condition of the site when records like 1936 were set


9DDC651C-3805-407D-ACF0-C29C6B03192C.thumb.webp.0eb8754fc693703eae03f137a2a189da.webp


There were several  temperatures higher than 106° at our local stations back in 2010 and 2011. 
 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108
NY MINEOLA COOP 108
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107
NJ HARRISON COOP 107
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106

 

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below.

 

In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat.

Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. 

Data for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 97
2022-07-21 99
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 100
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 101
2022-07-24 102

 

Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
2022-07-20 100
2022-07-21 98
2022-07-22 100
2022-07-23 100
2022-07-24 101

I ran the numbers against New Brunswick and Harrison. The outcomes are similar, but I excluded Harrison, as there were too many missing values in Harrison’s record vs. 2 for New Brunswick’s.

There may be an error (assuming there is no other explanation for the recent decoupling shown below), but it’s probably far closer to 0.5 degrees-1 degree than 2-3 degrees. Other explanations are plausible, thus I use “may.”

 

image.jpeg.e2614fb9e3a0e6050e410a2873f08a74.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Some heavy downpours in northern NJ right now, missing us as usual. Certainly a chance we could see something later today, but not getting my hopes up. I think I'll probably be watering again.

Yeah I don't see much. I have seen everything this brown in a long time. 

Still we're barely in a drought according to monitor 

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