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March 2022


wdrag
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Looks like the big weather swings will continue. Euro has low 20s around  NYC Monday and Tuesday mornings. Quick rebound back to near 70° on Thursday. The next storm and cold front may be accompanied by an early season severe thunderstorm outbreak later Thursday. A high shear and low CAPE event with the potential for embedded spin ups. Then a return to colder to start April but not as cold as the next few days. 
 


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Tomorrow will be blustery and unseasonably cold. Some snow flurries and snow showers are possible.

Maximum temperatures in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia could be held to their lowest levels for March 28th and later since at least April 8, 2003. The morning low temperature could start in the lower and middle 20s. Some teens are possible in the suburbs.

Tuesday will again see low temperatures fall well into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities.

The mean last dates for readings below 30° are:

New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24)
Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25)

Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2.

In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal.

Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31:

Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2°
New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2°
Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3°

Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. In New York City, the average will likely come out near 42.3°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March.

The SOI was +11.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.256 today.

On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.635 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.099 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.3° (2.5° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts...

As of 6 am, low temperatures included:

New York City: 23° (coldest this late in the season since April 5, 1995)
Newark: 23° (coldest this late in the season since April 5, 1995)
Philadelphia: 26° (coldest this late in the season since March 29, 2015)

At Binghamton, the temperature was 12°, which was just 1° above the daily record set in 1975.

Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cold. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. The temperature will rise into the upper 30s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 34°
Newark: 34°
Philadelphia: 38°

Tomorrow will start cold but see the mercury rise into the 40s during the afternoon.

Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7°
Newark: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.8°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.9°

 

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