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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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Looks like the improvements at h5 and the low being closer to the coast and stronger hurt us by robbing our moisture from the northern stream a bit? Highest snowfall closest to the coast and a sharper northern edge. Regardless the trend for the low to be closer and stronger (if it continues) would be a good way to get a lot more benefit from the coastal and is a good sign for a larger snowstorm being possible. 

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I’d be skeptical of Kuchera here given the look on the soundings and the experience of the last snow event that we got ahead of the big Miller abcdefu coastal. Soundings do look better on 12z vs 6z though.

That northern stream energy diving south on the backside is the big wildcard here. That yanks it west. A positive change for us.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is a straight up weenie run man. 

Not for us. But I think that’s noise. That “pre” band was south of us this time. That’s not gonna be nailed down yet. It was better at h5 and that’s probably all that matters 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d be skeptical of Kuchera here given the look on the soundings and the experience of the last snow event that we got ahead of the big Miller abcdefu coastal. Soundings do look better on 12z vs 6z though.

That northern stream energy diving south on the backside is the big wildcard here. That yanks it west. A positive change for us.

you're no fun ;)

1644818400-jGiXROkUYTs.png

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not for us. But I think that’s noise. That “pre” band was south of us this time. That’s not gonna be nailed down yet. It was better at h5 and that’s probably all that matters 

Its a 6 incher. I am not gonna be complaining about a 6 inch storm. But these southern jacks are getting old as shit at this point.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Its a 6 incher. I am not gonna be complaining about a 6 inch storm. But these southern jacks are getting old as shit at this point.

Me either and I don’t think you can take surface maps literally at this range. See my post above .. this is close.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d be skeptical of Kuchera here given the look on the soundings and the experience of the last snow event that we got ahead of the big Miller abcdefu coastal. Soundings do look better on 12z vs 6z though.

That northern stream energy diving south on the backside is the big wildcard here. That yanks it west. A positive change for us.

Hey remember when that ruined a storm last month? So we do have seasonal history that was a negative last time that could He a positive this time! :D

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