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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


Chicago Storm
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18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z NAM will either bump south with the overrunning event or have a slightly different orientation.


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This reminds of a scenario earlier in season where the models struggled with the  orientation of snow compared to the SLP.. in a similar set up.   There were last minute changes to a more SW to NE trajectory 

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The chase is always better then the catch. This has been awfully fun to track even though I have zero skin in the game. I’d be feeling pretty anxious if I still lived in Lake County IL, but excited to see the totals that come out of central IL. Going to be tough for Chicago to beat out Detroit by 10” this year after this dog comes through. 

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19 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Pretty dramatic shift on the 12z NAM as it was far too northwest to begin with. I see a compromise between the CMC and the Euro as most likely outcome for this event. 

Seasonal snow prediction of 20-25" looks good. Just for RFD not ORD

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16 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

yep the folks in Central IL are due and as currently modeled they get buried into Northern IN.

 

I'm living on the edge of the monster band

I am going to shift that map 15 miles SE plus reduce it by 20%  and that would put the far NW Peoria Metro around 8 but the SE about 16 and even more just SE

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13 minutes ago, Chambana said:

I’m almost shaking with anticipation and anxiety. We look locked and loaded for a historic event. The model consistency is just incredible to see. 

For days now Champaign and IKK have been seeing amounts 20-30 inches. Feels like we never left the bullseye

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11 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

This may have been answered, but when does this thing get on land/which runs will be the first with it on land?

Some elements are already on or close to land while others like the tip of the trough which will be playing a role in the cyclogenesis of the low won't hit Baja California until 18Z on Wednesday. All of this according to the NAM anyway.

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