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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


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22 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I'd rather get missed altogether than the 4 inches the GFS shows for me.

4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow.  Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course.  I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic. :lol:

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15 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Good news is it is running out of time, for the first waves anyway.

 

I'm still a bit pessimistic, been in the bullseye for way too long to stay in it. That just doesn't happen.

Like I told you before, you're golden. Enjoy it. You're getting :mapsnow:

10 minutes ago, mimillman said:

You will be just fine 

Appreciate the vote in confidence :snowing:

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12 minutes ago, Lightning said:

4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow.  Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course.  I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic. :lol:

My interests are mostly around snowmobiling. There's very little upside to the storm at this point. 12 to 15 inches hitting corn fields don't do much for me. I'd rather get rain and have west Michigan trails get 15+. I just trailer out, there's nowhere to trailer to besides Canada and they aren't letting anyone in for recreational reasons.

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1 minute ago, Lightning said:

4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow.  Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course.  I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic. :lol:

 

Not I. I'll pass as well. Keep going south. Models had been behaving so well ( as in more predictable trends ) and now this. Lol  

 

Enjoy Indiana and Ohio! This is not coming back north. History making systems never do come back for here atleast. Willing to bet that the Jan 67 ( #1 ) and Jan 78 ( #2 ) records stand for another 100+ years here? Any takers? 

 

What a wild ride for sure and nice to see all the old faces pop in. 

Question now is northern Indiana or Central and same for Ohio? Who is gonna be in that zone? Somebody is getting buried down that way while someone else could be getting a disgusting ice storm. 

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3 minutes ago, Harry said:

Enjoy Indiana and Ohio! This is not coming back north. History making systems never do come back for here atleast. Willing to bet that the Jan 67 ( #1 ) and Jan 78 ( #2 ) records stand for another 100+ years here? Any takers? 

Seems like it would take this kind of anomalous gulf moisture + arctic front, but with an actual bomb cyclone rather than this sloppy open wave.  A deeper low would hook north and take the heavy snow north with it.

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7 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Not I. I'll pass as well. Keep going south. Models had been behaving so well ( as in more predictable trends ) and now this. Lol  

 

Enjoy Indiana and Ohio! This is not coming back north. History making systems never do come back for here atleast. Willing to bet that the Jan 67 ( #1 ) and Jan 78 ( #2 ) records stand for another 100+ years here? Any takers? 

 

What a wild ride for sure and nice to see all the old faces pop in. 

Question now is northern Indiana or Central and same for Ohio? Who is gonna be in that zone? Somebody is getting buried down that way while someone else could be getting a disgusting ice storm. 

Understood as I know you are in it for the Historic.  Jonger is all about the sledding.  Josh and I just want it to snow. :lol: :snowwindow:

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Thanks for everyone's insights - it's been fun following as a lurker.

Question on plumes, and maybe it's user error - the averages in and around Chicago are at ~12". Looking down in central IL/IN where more snow is modeled their averages are the same or less. (ie IKK is about the same as ORD). Is it still too far out to see the full storm totals, or reason for such a large spread still in east-central IL.

 

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6 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

Thanks for everyone's insights - it's been fun following as a lurker.

Question on plumes, and maybe it's user error - the averages in and around Chicago are at ~12". Looking down in central IL/IN where more snow is modeled their averages are the same or less. (ie IKK is about the same as ORD). Is it still too far out to see the full storm totals, or reason for such a large spread still in east-central IL.

 

Haven't looked but my guess would be there are a significant number of northern members.

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Looking at forecast maps/soundings, you can really see how bone dry the airmass aloft is on the northern end/just north of the progged snows tomorrow night into Wed.  The hope for folks there would be that maybe things can saturate a bit better than shown.

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

I'm talking about after Wednesday's changeover occurs.

I think 3-6" is a pretty safe bet on Wednesday, however this thing being pushed a bit east helps make 4-8" more likely. Still, I'm as confident as you can be that NW Ohio will see 8-16" on Thursday

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12z GEFS mean still more amped up than the OP, but with each of the last 3 runs a few more individual members flip to a more suppressed looking storm.  Not sure if those members are also honing into the same potential error as the OP run and things will eventually flip back or if they're the correct ones and the ones still showing an amped solution are late to the game. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

1644019200-RcMTxqZNDgE.png

Will let this speak for itself.

Not often I have a chance for over 18" but Im also staying realistic. With so much in the air 4-6" would be alright as it stays looking like winter and builds on snowpack, 6-10" is happy and cant complain at all. Anything over 10" ill be pumped haha. Use this against me if I complain about getting 7" haha 

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