February 2022

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And? That only goes to mid-month the warmup in question starts mid month…..

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And? That only goes to mid-month the warmup in question starts mid month…..

One day you will be right 

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

One day you will be right 

As maybe you and your hero JB will be one day. Hey, he declared that winter is over, dead in 3 weeks, do you not believe him? 

[MJO812]

The one thing I will say is after mid month , the pattern starts to break down and winter " might " be over.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

As maybe you and your hero JB will be one day. Hey, he declared that winter is over, dead in 3 weeks, do you not believe him? 

I do think winter might be done at the end of this month. Tellies look bad.

[wdrag]

I disagree... I'll post a one liner when I admit winter over.  

I'll need updated info on 3/1 Stratwarm possibilities ( not skilled at new EC methodology). IF that stratwarm doesn't materialize,  then winter possibly done, but for now... I am not believing 00z/5 EPS at 360 hours.  

If I'm not mistaken 2-3 weeks ago posters were looking for a warmup soon after the first week of Feb.  Becoming clearer (to me) that this persistently warmer than normal (no winter here) warmup is delayed til at least the 19th (maybe even the 23rd since AK troughs have a delayed 4-5 day east coast response).

Keeping in mind that this LaNina is not behaving traditionally and that there is so much we don't know...I am holding off on pronouncing winter over. Clearly the 06z/5 GEFS is not winter over as the broad trough with multiple embedded short waves covers N. AM with ridging near both coasts. Modeled ensemble EPO are nearly polar opposites by 336 hours.  

If you want some confidence in the GEFS EPO at 336 hours...  take a look at this Relative Measure Of Predictability (RMOP) attached. Reds are above normal chance of verifying. The Blues below normal.,  So if you look at AK, the blues might end up warmer (ridging)... I sort of doubt that the 500MB heights will end up as a colder trough there...my thinking the error is that the GEFS heights are too low there.

I always end with that I could be wrong-corrected but for now... am reluctant to be a downer.

14.4" Wantage as of 908A/5(keep an eye on 7-8 coastal... it should produce snow and ice near or just west of I95 RDU-ORH) 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I disagree... I'll post a one liner when I admit winter over.  

I'll need updated info on 3/1 Stratwarm possibilities ( not skilled at new EC methodology). IF that stratwarm doesn't materialize,  then winter possibly done, but for now... I am not believing 00z/5 EPS at 360 hours.  

If I'm not mistaken 2-3 weeks ago posters were looking for a warmup soon after the first week of Feb.  Becoming clearer (to me) that this persistently warmer than normal (no winter here) warmup is delayed til at least the 19th (maybe even the 23rd since AK troughs have a delayed 4-5 day east coast response).

Keeping in mind that this LaNina is not behaving traditionally and that there is so much we don't know...I am holding off on pronouncing winter over. Clearly the 06z/5 GEFS is not winter over as the broad trough with multiple embedded short waves covers N. AM with ridging near both coasts. Modeled ensemble EPO are nearly polar opposites by 336 hours.  

If you want some confidence in the GEFS EPO at 336 hours...  take a look at this Relative Measure Of Predictability (RMOP) attached. Reds are above normal chance of verifying. The Blues below normal.,  So if you look at AK, the blues might end up warmer (ridging)... I sort of doubt that the 500MB heights will end up as a colder trough there...my thinking the error is that the GEFS heights are too low there.

I always end with that I could be wrong-corrected but for now... am reluctant to be a downer.

14.4" Wantage as of 908A/5(keep an eye on 7-8 coastal... it should produce snow and ice near or just west of I95 RDU-ORH) 

Thanks for your post Walt, but careful, Snowman19 might put a weenie tag on you saying winter isn't over.... 

[ForestHillWx]

I thought it was winter cancel time? No? (Heavy sarc). 

[TugHillMatt]

7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Thanks for your post Walt, but careful, Snowman19 might put a weenie tag on you saying winter isn't over.... 

The guy is obsessed with warmups. Every time I check your subforum out, there's a post from him about warmups coming.

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Thanks for your post Walt, but careful, Snowman19 might put a weenie tag on you saying winter isn't over.... 

Publicity... whew... I am a weenie. Hopefully I am learning to keep all this predictability in perspective and not too quickly buy in on a wish cast. Of course I want winter to go on. I do eventually realize when there is no chance. Keeping the door open til the Aleutian Low redevelops. 

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Thanks for your post Waltb, but careful, Snowman19 might put a weenie tag on you saying winter isn't over.... 

Good morning WG. I’ve noticed on the sub forums, respect for the professionals is constant. The New England group may throw weenies around, despite the tag, but their tens of thousands of posts to me evidence a different tolerance dynamic. In our forum an exception might be forky. With a few syllables he posts a lure and many times hooks a bonanza. Stay well, as always ….

[penndotguy]

Snow squall warning out here, it’s SN+ at the moment 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The one thing I will say is after mid month , the pattern starts to break down and winter " might " be over.

I never really understood what "winter is over" really means. 

We've had snow in a sea of warmth like March 2016, Feb 2018, January 2012. Heck the book about the 1888 blizzard talked about an early spring and early flower growth before the storm (probably late season severe blocking occured).

Even if we go ++++AO NAO EPO mega RNA it doesn't mean there is NO SHOT of winter weather or a late return. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has more of a -PNA look near the end of the 0z run. But the GEPS and GEFS not as much.  The big story this winter was the historic PNA rise from December to January. It was the greatest on record from December to January. So even if the +PNA weakens or reverses in late February, the February PNA reading won’t be anything like December was. So in two consecutive La Niña winters, this December will be the only severe -PNA out of 6 winter months. The December PNA was a record breaking -2.56 and January jumped to +1.01.

 

 

I know someone saw that the other -PNA Decembers which were close in amplitude to this one that Jan/Feb both averaged below normal after in the Eastern US so perhaps some type of forced change to the pattern as a result of a persistent -PNA like that 

[psv88]

27.5” inches of snow here this winter, 5-6” from season average. Really not terrible. I’d be ok with no more snow 

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I never really understood what "winter is over" really means. 

We've had snow in a sea of warmth like March 2016, Feb 2018, January 2012. Heck the book about the 1888 blizzard talked about an early spring and early flower growth before the storm (probably late season severe blocking occured).

Even if we go ++++AO NAO EPO mega RNA it doesn't mean there is NO SHOT of winter weather or a late return. 

 

I think it means chances for accumulating snow are over. 

So by that metric our chances don't end till mid April though you can see ahead of time if the pattern could support late season snow. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think it means chances for accumulating snow are over. 

So by that metric our chances don't end till mid April though you can see ahead of time if the pattern could support late season snow. 

Yeah I get that chances would go down, but it can snow in almost any pattern.

It's just impossible to declare winter over no matter what the environment looks like.

Sustained winter pattern over, yeah I get that, just not it's over with no chance of more snow.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

The guy is obsessed with warmups. Every time I check your subforum out, there's a post from him about warmups coming.

He always does. His act is old. He said I would be wearing shorts and short sleeved shirts in Feb. It's 23 outside. 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

He always does. His act is old. He said I would be wearing shorts and short sleeved shirts in Feb. It's 23 outside. 

"Insert picture of him wearing shorts and short sleeved shirt while it's in the 20s..."

"I was right!"

[EasternLI]

18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

"Insert picture of him wearing shorts and short sleeved shirt while it's in the 20s..."

"I was right!"

[eduggs]

I hate this winter. Still waiting for a solid snow and nothing promising to track. Monday doesn't have much of a ceiling. The wettest models (and ens individuals) are rain. It's a lousy setup. Maybe interior SNE and especially NNE has a shot.

[mattinpa]

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I hate this winter. Still waiting for a solid snow and nothing promising to track. Monday doesn't have much of a ceiling. The wettest models (and ens individuals) are rain. It's a lousy setup. Maybe interior SNE and especially NNE has a shot.

Well the good snows have been all around me, also. It’s true that the best chances can come up without much advance notice. I hope that happens again. 

[larrye]

35 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I hate this winter. Still waiting for a solid snow and nothing promising to track. Monday doesn't have much of a ceiling. The wettest models (and ens individuals) are rain. It's a lousy setup. Maybe interior SNE and especially NNE has a shot.

I know it's far out. But at a glance, the GFS seems to hint at something around 2/14, although the Euro seems to push it OTS. I didn't take a look at the temps - are they too warm?

[bluewave]

This year the heaviest snows have shifted back to the east. Last several seasons  it was more west. So a continuation of the multi-year windshield wiper effect between ISP and EWR.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-NEWARK
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall  ISP	Total  snowfall  EWR
2022-04-30	32.3	14.9
2021-04-30	33.5	45.7
2020-04-30	6.8	6.9
2019-04-30	12.8	22.0
2018-04-30	65.9	39.0
2017-04-30	39.3	39.0
2016-04-30	41.4	32.8
2015-04-30	63.7	46.4
2014-04-30	63.7	61.1
2013-04-30	46.9	29.5
2012-04-30	4.7	8.8
2011-04-30	55.3	68.2
2010-04-30	53.8	47.9

[White Gorilla]

42 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I hate this winter. Still waiting for a solid snow and nothing promising to track. Monday doesn't have much of a ceiling. The wettest models (and ens individuals) are rain. It's a lousy setup. Maybe interior SNE and especially NNE has a shot.

I hate this winter too so far, though I realize it could be worse.  But constant shaft city is no bueno. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This year the heaviest snows have shifted back to the east. Last several seasons  it was more west. So a continuation of the multi-year windshield wiper effect between ISP and EWR.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-NEWARK
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall  ISP	Total  snowfall  EWR
2022-04-30	32.3	14.9
2021-04-30	33.5	45.7
2020-04-30	6.8	6.9
2019-04-30	12.8	22.0
2018-04-30	65.9	39.0
2017-04-30	39.3	39.0
2016-04-30	41.4	32.8
2015-04-30	63.7	46.4
2014-04-30	63.7	61.1
2013-04-30	46.9	29.5
2012-04-30	4.7	8.8
2011-04-30	55.3	68.2
2010-04-30	53.8	47.9

I'm a little surprised that EWR has rarely gotten more snow than ISP over that stretch, and never by much. I guess it's not far enough NW. Overall the stations are pretty similar most years.

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I hate this winter. Still waiting for a solid snow and nothing promising to track. Monday doesn't have much of a ceiling. The wettest models (and ens individuals) are rain. It's a lousy setup. Maybe interior SNE and especially NNE has a shot.

Long ways to go for winter 

[MJO812]

Gfs and cmc looks good mid to long range

Euro takes the MJO to 4 while the gefs doesn't 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This year the heaviest snows have shifted back to the east. Last several seasons  it was more west. So a continuation of the multi-year windshield wiper effect between ISP and EWR.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-NEWARK
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall  ISP	Total  snowfall  EWR
2022-04-30	32.3	14.9
2021-04-30	33.5	45.7
2020-04-30	6.8	6.9
2019-04-30	12.8	22.0
2018-04-30	65.9	39.0
2017-04-30	39.3	39.0
2016-04-30	41.4	32.8
2015-04-30	63.7	46.4
2014-04-30	63.7	61.1
2013-04-30	46.9	29.5
2012-04-30	4.7	8.8
2011-04-30	55.3	68.2
2010-04-30	53.8	47.9

I feel like 2000 through 2010 was heavily skewed west (more blocking). Could be wrong though.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, larrye said:

I know it's far out. But at a glance, the GFS seems to hint at something around 2/14, although the Euro seems to push it OTS. I didn't take a look at the temps - are they too warm?

Yeah I saw that. H5 looks potentially promising even though ensembles are unexciting. The 12z CMC has it too. Too bad it's so far out.