Feb 1 -3 GHD III

[Cartier God]

5 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Anyone have euro kuchera totals? Just for curiosity in Indy

 

[RCNYILWX]

The more important thing is that it's still a very big snow on the Euro.  I'd be more concerned if there were significant backing off on amounts in the main corridor than shifts in placement at this point.  
The stakes are high so we'll probably be living and dying with each model/cycle more than usual.  Lol

Excellent point. To see QPF output of that magnitude, have to assume a tremendous amount of latent heat release. With a juiced baroclinic zone to work with due to finally open Gulf trajectories advecting northward to it, you can get sufficient downstream height rises to counteract suppression from the TPV lobe over Hudson Bay. You don't want that feature to be overly suppressive, so the risk is dry Arctic air mass really sharpens cutoff, but without it, the background pattern could support a much farther north baroclinic zone.

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[Stebo]

I would argue there is more room for this to come back north from that 00z run. If the high pressing in is weaker it comes north, if the confluence is weaker it comes north. We are kind of already at the maximum strength for both already. Also if it speeds up a bit it would come north again. Again as others noted too, this version of the euro has been pretty lousy for this region as well.

[snowman33]

01/29/15 12z GFS run:

Quote

gfs has been very consistent it's last 3 runs....minor shifts in qpf shield/amounts.  

Looking like a solid 3-6" widespread snowfall centered on i70,  Low end warning criteria.   Long duration light to mod at times.   Still feel biggest risk is further south and weak....euro is a huge red flag.

Result:

[cyclone77]

Will be interesting to see if and how much the EPS shifts south here shortly.

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would argue there is more room for this to come back north from that 00z run. If the high pressing in is weaker it comes north, if the confluence is weaker it comes north. We are kind of already at the maximum strength for both already. Also if it speeds up a bit it would come north again. Again as others noted too, this version of the euro has been pretty lousy for this region as well.

The op Euro has been terrible lately, at least for this area.  Did quite bad with the clipper train last week.  Maybe it just sucks with clippers and does better with the bigger systems like what we're tracking here.  Either way I'm sort of pissed off at it atm lol.

[Dalfy]

21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The corridor the Euro smashes is overdue to be sure, so that is nice to see.  Definitely gonna be painful to miss the best event of the season so far though, if Euro solution works out.  

100% correct. Bring on the southern track baby.  

 

[snowman33]

I-72 has been getting screwed for over a decade. So many promising starts turning into north shifts and near misses.

[RCNYILWX]

Will be interesting to see if and how much the EPS shifts south here shortly.

Noteworthy shift south. From a LOT CWA and my backyard (as a snow enthusiast like most on here lol) perspective though, we're in the threat zone. It's hard to tell if this particular run was under dispersive, though it kind of seems that way. Nonetheless, still several significant hits up into the metro and I think key takeaway is confidence continues to grow in a swath of impressive precip/snow, wherever it ultimately sets up.

I wouldn't argue with feeling a bit worse about chances at this juncture in the far north CWA and northwest CWA and points west, though also still plenty of time. It was roughly around this lead time I believe from GHD II, that several guidance members shifted main axis south. This is not to imply that things will go a certain way because of how it went on some past occurrences, but that we're still pretty far out.

[sbnwx85]

40 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Anyone have euro kuchera totals? Just for curiosity in Indy

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Toot toot! Let’s go!

 

Also, I have set the Natester ICON mention over under at 9.5. Place your bets. 

[Stebo]

9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Toot toot! Let’s go!

 

Also, I have set the Natester ICON mention over under at 9.5. Place your bets. 

Pound the over

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

 

If I saw that swath without the state outlines, I'd probably guess it's somewhere on the east coast.  Truly remarkable stuff.

[WHEATCENT]

30 inches over my ohio county 4 days out oh myyyyyyyyyyy 

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

I still have alot of those images on my old computer. That did briefly trend south to the point of being a i70 special but then came back north. 

Nice to see ya in here friend!  But I thought you went to AZ. I'm a SEMI Peep since last summer myself - far western Wayne cnty almost to Washtenaw. This one seems to like this region and would fit well with the tradition that says Motown has it's best shot for good snow when it's a bitter cold pattern. 

[Radtechwxman]

Where can you see the EPS runs? 

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Noteworthy shift south. From a LOT CWA and my backyard (as a snow enthusiast like most on here lol) perspective though, we're in the threat zone. It's hard to tell if this particular run was under dispersive, though it kind of seems that way. Nonetheless, still several significant hits up into the metro and I think key takeaway is confidence continues to grow in a swath of impressive precip/snow, wherever it ultimately sets up.

I wouldn't argue with feeling a bit worse about chances at this juncture in the far north CWA and northwest CWA and points west, though also still plenty of time. It was roughly around this lead time I believe from GHD II, that several guidance members shifted main axis south. This is not to imply that things will go a certain way because of how it went on some past occurrences, but that we're still pretty far out.

 

Yeah confidence taking a hit now

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The 06Z GFS is a touch north, clobbers Detroit

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

If I saw that swath without the state outlines, I'd probably guess it's somewhere on the east coast.  Truly remarkable stuff.

No kidding! I suppose if the Jan '67 moisture bomb was modelled properly, it too would've looked kinda like some of these Euro Op runs, tho the 20+ swath back in '67 was not as wide as what's being portrayed for next week around these parts. 

 

2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The 06Z GFS is a touch north, clobbers Detroit

Love it! But, N then S then N then S on these Op runs are frustrating some Peeps in here. I'd hang my hat on the GEFS at this point. Until it moves SE a bunch, there's still a good signal for those favored by it. 

[AWMT30]

GFS said enough with the shifts south 

[AWMT30]

GEFS look to hold as well. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

No kidding! I suppose if the Jan '67 moisture bomb was modelled properly, it too would've looked kinda like some of these Euro Op runs, tho the 20+ swath back in '67 was not as wide as what's being portrayed for next week around these parts. 

 

Love it! But, N then S then N then S on these Op runs are frustrating some Peeps in here. I'd hang my hat on the GEFS at this point. Until it moves SE a bunch, there's still a good signal for those favored by it. 

No matter who gets the highest totals, rn it looks like most of the subforum will get spread the wealth warning criteria at least

[RogueWaves]

GFS 6z. So sexy! 1.75" qpf yielding 20-21" total here via KCH formula:

 

[KokomoWX]

4 hours ago, zinski1990 said:

Idk. Maybe it's finally my time lol. Still not getting hopes up til maybe Monday. It doesn't feel real in Indy 

It would be crazy to think we could make up a seasonal deficit with one storm this late in season.  I will say the previous GHD monster storms yanked the rug out from us last minute.  While 6" of sleet was nothing to sneeze at, it was a far cry from feet of snow that was expected.  Pinging sounds are bad memories.

[Chicago WX]

6z GEFS mean total precip and snowfall. Pretty juicy this far out. Regardless, expect shifting of the snow axis from run to run. Just want to see the models keep the same general idea of a sizable system somewhere in the region. Details TBD on Monday and Tuesday, if it's still warranted... 

[dmc76]

Classic 8-12” snow for SEMI

[KokomoWX]

GHD I was expected to be a monster for the LAF-OKK crew. Instead a last minute sleet storm happened and Chicago got a historic snowstorm. Here are a few maps and images I have from leading up to that event.  You can see the bullseye was everything we dreamed. Long live the DGEX.  (I forget who used to run a private high resolution weather model for our area.)

This memory makes me think I'd rather be in Chicago vs Indy for next week.

[Stevo6899]

7 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

GHD I was expected to be a monster for the LAF-OKK crew. Instead a last minute sleet storm happened and Chicago got a historic snowstorm. Here are a few maps and images I have from leading up to that event.  You can see the bullseye was everything we dreamed. Long live the DGEX.  (I forget who used to run a private high resolution weather model for our area.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ughh what a nightmare that ended up being, hearing the sleet. Thats why i like where we sit right now with the euro being further SE. This time around though, theres not a wound up low like ghd1 so I think a big nw trend last minute is less likely and last nights euro has a better chance of verifying. Hopefully the zone from laf/fortwayne/dtw can cash on this one and redeem ghd1. Its weird how we find a storm threat almost every yr around groundhog day.

[Chambana]

GHD I was one of the biggest heartbreaks ever, it’s how I discovered this board and sleep was a rarity that week. GHD II was a whiff. March 25, 2013 came close to the elusive 12” mark but ultimately fell short, the last 12”+ snowfall was 2/13/07. 
 

These more wound up systems tend to trend north in the days/hours leading up the event. That being said, it’s fun to see a significant winter storm to this magnitude. 

[mimillman]

Dunno what happens in the end, but 2 things are for sure:

1) Plenty of time

2) Climo doesn’t favor a Euro solution