Cartier God

First chase of the year locally today, saw a tornado warned supercell while stopped northeast of Eaton Rapids. .

Yesterday’s chase started after leaving a party at my boss’s house around 6:30. Storms began to fire southwest of the warm front around 6:40, looking pretty anemic at first. Still on the fence about chasing, I drove to Staples in Frandor to stop and check mesoanalysis. Soon after I noticed a small cell east of Dewitt that was broadly rotating on radar. I drove north to get a view of the storm at 7:10. Shortly after I caught a glimpse of the distant updraft base. As I approached the storm from the southwest, the RFD clear slot became more apparent, and a broadly rotating wall cloud could be seen. After heading east to get a better view, I witnessed the old updraft base move off to the north and begin to occlude. Off to the south, a new and more vigorous updraft was wrapping up. I cautiously drove east behind the storm. After the trees parted, I was greeted with a closer view of the mesocyclone looking ENE on Bath Rd. The RFD surge was mesmerizing. A tornado looked imminent. I noticed wispy funnels emerging from the mesocyclone about 3 miles west of perry accompanied by rapid upward motion. I continued east as my view of the ground became obscured by trees. I stayed west of I-69 not wanting to risk getting too close or missing out on the storm structure. A weak tornado was visible at this point, lofting small debris. The funnel quickly widened and intensified after crossing I-69. I repositioned and gained sight of the tornado after stopping at the intersection of Bath and Ruess. I watched the now uncondensed funnel cross Ruess Rd, with a brief power power flash and some swirling debris noted. I continued east and witnessed a few more ragged lowerings before calling it a night and heading home at dusk. .

Was on this storm for nearly an hour and a half last night, watching it change from a weakly rotating updraft base to a large and damaging tornado as it entered Perry. Followed it from the west on Bath rd, witnessed lofted debris and power flashes as it crossed Ruess rd. Will post more pics after work

The last tornado to be rated F4/EF4+ in Michigan was actually a little later, in April 1977. Two F4 tornadoes struck Kalamazoo and Eaton counties respectively. Still been an insanely long streak. I have to work up in Grayling today, otherwise I would fs be chasing today.

what's up with the 00z HRRR for tomorrow? really diminishes the severe threat for MI compared to 18z.

see April 3 1956. multiple supercells went surface-based and tornadic the instant they crossed the lake. not saying tomorrow will be anything like that, but it is possible this time of year.

ghost of kyiv reference

got thursday and friday off work, wish i could stay in lansing for the event but we’ll see how detroit fares. i’d be happy to get 6” out of this

me returning from my year long hiatus after natester mentions the icon

I'm scheduled to work here in Lansing Thursday and Friday, and I was planning on driving home to Detroit Friday evening. Something tells me my schedule will be changing.

i fly back to detroit from albuquerque friday so not sure how i feel about the timing of this one

snow is finally falling here in east lansing. solid rates right now

final call 8 inches, as a weenie hut general im obviously manifesting another northwest trend atm

ended with just under a foot of snow here which exceeded my call of 10.5", never count out the holy northwest shift. almost considered driving home to my parents house in wayne county when it was looking like we'd be on the north side of everything, pretty glad i didn't. super solid storm here, ill post pics later today.

final call 10.5 inches. ready 2 reel

terrible bait 0/10

yes its because people from ohio dont understand jokes

ill be home in grosse pointe for this event so naturally im mclovin the south trend

Oh okay. I was just explaining why it was wrong. I’ve seen a couple weenies online push this conspiracy and its complete bs. The ratings for this outbreak were egregious but acting like its some scheme for WFOs to deny people who lost their homes financial aid is ridiculous.

What does WAG mean

I think you have a misunderstanding of how insurance companies provide compensation for natural disasters. It’s based off the cost of insured losses, not EF rating.

The SPC did an excellent job forecasting this event, especially given short-term model guidance that day. It wasn't until around 16z Friday when the CAM runs began to catch on to the overperforming surface temps/dews and started to realize the nightmarish potential of that day. The SPC also did an amazing job with their timely and descriptive MDs as the event unfolded. It's easy to say that they could've gone with a high risk after everything is said and done, but given the model guidance and general expectations for Friday its fair to say that they did a fantastic job.

Warm air damming? lol

I got off work at 4 yesterday tired as hell and knowing I couldn’t make it to the thumb in time, so I took a nap and then I raced to meet the embedded supercell that dropped a tornado near White Lake. I stopped near Sylvan Lake just after the updraft occluded, but I still saw a grungy looking shelf with some cool striations. It was a decent chase but not as nice as the one I had on 6/26. This picture is of the tornado that hit Armada, from a friend of my girlfriend. Her house was ok but other houses on her street sustained damage.