Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[mreaves]

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not everyone is seeing historic.

Well then I don't want it!  Oh wait, I'm not getting it. 

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'd be nice if ECMWF could speed up their product output by even 30 minutes. Are they running 4dvar on a compaq presario?

Nah don't forget they are in the UK so they are running it on a cluster of BBC Micro's.

[JC-CT]

I wish they would run RAP 100-member perturbed ensembles as individual outputs every 10 minutes

[Roger Smith]

Also they have to show the output to the Queen so that takes time, she's fussy about isobars and such. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Man, I will tell you, life is much less stressful when your backyard was never in the jackpot zone.

I just want a few inches of gawdamn snow.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even those folks will be in the 6-12” zone. There will be a huge deform band thrown waaaayyy west 

I think everyone was like this before Feb 2013 and then that band kept coming west and we know how that went.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I think everyone was like this before Feb 2013 and then that band kept coming west and we know how that went.. 

The big ones make us nuts....no one wants to make it to the Super Bowl and lose.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I think everyone was like this before Feb 2013 and then that band kept coming west and we know how that went.. 

This is exactly what people did. Not that this ends that way.. but I remember Sw CT folks slashing wrists the same way they are today 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3rd and goal, Euro need to make a stop.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Man, I will tell you, life is much less stressful when your backyard was never in the jackpot zone.

I just want a few inches of gawdamn snow.

Happens more often than not here.  I wish everyone was in the game on this one but I can't control the weather.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The big ones make us nuts....no one wants to make it to the Super Bowl and lose.

The way im looking at it even if I get over 6 its the biggest storm so far this year and a good one  but I think the potential even here is high

[radarman]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I think everyone was like this before Feb 2013 and then that band kept coming west and we know how that went.. 

10% Feb 2013

60% Jan 2018

30% Jan 2015

 

[Torch Tiger]

22 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

I think some folks are latching onto these really high-end solutions and totals a bit early.

tried to tell 'em

[HimoorWx]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Also they have to show the output to the Queen so that takes time, she's fussy about isobars and such. 

Then wait for the VAR review to see if there was a clear and obvious error.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Final guess:

12-18 along and east of I-91

**18-24 possible HFD-IJD-ORH**

6-12 from Route 7 to I-91

3-6 Taconic Parkway to Route 7

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I wish they would run RAP 100-member perturbed ensembles as individual outputs every 10 minutes

You can get the HRRR with 15min increments.

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsubh/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_subh_ncep_jet&domain=t3&run_time=28+Jan+2022+-+15Z

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3rd and goal, Euro need to make a stop.

https://youtu.be/8RL6_Ec9QGg

[IowaStorm05]

Moderate to nearly heavy snow was falling on my drive between willi and Montville, and was lighter at old Lyme but is increasing. 

[dryslot]

Whispers from Messenger.

[ineedsnow]

more recon being sent in for the 0z runs tonight which to me means it could still go either way for a lot of people 

[Digityman]

Euro looks way South
Coming in hot and heavy to the North
OMG it's OTS
Looks great for WOR folks
 

Just preparing myself........ Okay I'm ready....

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You can get the HRRR with 15min increments.

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsubh/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_subh_ncep_jet&domain=t3&run_time=28+Jan+2022+-+15Z

it's not that....i want more output, more variance, more often. I want to live and die by every model run, 100x every 10 minutes. oh, and they should go out to 300 hours

[JC-CT]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

The way im looking at it even if I get over 6 its the biggest storm so far this year and a good one  but I think the potential even here is high

Yes, that is exactly the attitude you need to have!

[shawnmov]

Everybody gotta just....

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

more recon being sent in for the 0z runs tonight which to me means it could still go either way for a lot of people 

By tonight you can just look at radar. 

[dendrite]

Just now, JC-CT said:

it's not that....i want more output, more variance, more often. I want to live and die by every model run, 100x every 10 minutes. oh, and they should go out to 300 hours

Yeah I knew what you meant.

[skierinvermont]

Euro digs the trough a bit more at 6hrs PV pulling out more

[ineedsnow]

Euro will be a bit east it looks like but still good

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Holy smokes what a bunch whining beotches.  It’s unreadable. GFS Improved a lot for everybody, and in less than 20 minutes, you’ll know if it’s a storm cancel or all systems go.  
 

Then if it holds serve for the most part, we just need to all go and enjoy the storm and let’s see how we all do. Too much microanalysis in here now. It negates the joy, and that’s too bad.  

Just let it play out. The train wreck is funny though.