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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

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1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

The rest of Connecticut probably won't meet the wind criteria.

Im not so sure about that. We need 35 mph for 3 hours ( amd we will have all the other criteria met )... Its possible ( although, even if we don't, it will still look like a Blizzard ). All good either way. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah... this run of the NAM does little to motivate me - personally..

I mean I've seen this kind of antic from the NAM < 48 hours, where it tosses a turd cycle into the punch-bowl, only to correct a cycle or two later. 

This run appears to be just a 'slightly' unraveling of the 06z ...and immediately, we see a ... I dunno 20% reduction in the 'awe' top side.  In a philosophy that's fine, because the previous solutions were sorta kinda 'off the reservation' relative to climo to an uncomfortable extent.  That said, the "upside" aspect of this is still there - so we can't let guard down as to how much this could come back...  Side, RGEM...GGEM and Euro ... 

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS came in with a 30-bomb clear to HFD - haha

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... this run of the NAM does little to motivate me - personally..

I mean I've seen this kind of antic from the NAM < 48 hours, where it tosses a turd cycle into the punch-bowl, only to correct a cycle or two later. 

This run appears to be just a 'slightly' unraveling of the 06z ...and immediately, we see a ... I dunno 20% reduction in the 'awe' top side.  In a philosophy that's fine, because the previous solutions were sorta kinda 'off the reservation' relative to climo to an uncomfortable extent.  That said, the "upside" aspect of this is still there - so we can't let guard down as to how much this could come back...  Side, RGEM...GGEM and Euro ... 

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS came in with a 30-bomb clear to HFD - haha

 

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted
My friend just sold his childhood collection of Kiss memorabilia for $6000!
OT, but I had a friend who collected custom guitars. Had a Gene Simmons are bass, #2/250. Gene had #1, obviously. There were cork pegs in the body. We removed one and there was a handwritten note. Kinda cool.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we are just obsessing over the trees in the midst of a historically expansive forest-

Yes, very much so. I don't really think this double, or elongated low is a real thing. Probably more the models dealing with the phase. I feel we've seen this before and in the end it was one cohesive LP

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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16 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I think we're all in agreement that naming winter storms is a stupid practice...but I can't help but notice Ch3 in CT has gone with the name 'Bobby'. I can't think of a more underwhelming name for a storm of this magnitude. Cringeworthy.

We mused last night ... maybe "James" would be better -

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

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I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

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