Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR still doing the dual low.

This is a legit concern of mine in terms of this challenging records vs being "merely" a massive storm.

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is a legit concern of mine in terms of this challenging records vs being "merely" a massive storm.

I agree with this. Still TBD. 

Also figuring out where the subby zone is just east of the big time deform snows.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The fun part is this storm will have small surprises right to the end.  This winter has been so bad I'm content with any decent snowfall at this point, jackpots are of no concern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a legit concern of mine in terms of this challenging records vs being "merely" a massive storm.

That is probably why the EURO and NAM backed of a hair in the overall intensity.....see if that trend continues.

[DavisStraight]

Sunday should be a fun day too with the snow blowing around.

[PhineasC]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The fun part is this storm will have small surprises right to the end.  This winter has been so bad I'm content with any decent snowfall at this point, jackpots are of no concern.

Yeah, a locked-in 10" across the entire region is better IMO. Lot of risk with these boom scenarios.

Someone will get screwed and someone will unexpectedly pull 18".

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is probably why the EURO and NAM backed of a hair in the overall intensity.....see if that trend continues.

The low eventually gets captured anyway because H5 is just so strong, but the dual low can act to delay the capture a bit further northeast.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I know some think parts of the BOX map are too low but it seems pretty reasonable given there are still some uncertainties.

[dryslot]

12z Nam probably going to be a tic or so east this run, Not surprised as it was so far west then the other models.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The low eventually gets captured anyway because H5 is just so strong, but the dual low can act to delay the capture a bit further northeast. a

Exactly....its not a storm cancel thing...but just of a shift focus slightly thing.

[HinghamBoss]

I worry that the volume has been turned up a notch too much in last 12 hours and that there will be a letdown/distrust if we don’t achieve the insanely high ceiling on this storm for the reasons/risks outlined in last page or two.

[cut]

PRE - flakes In Stamford 

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Nam probably going to be a tic or so east this run, Not surprised as it was so far west then the other models.

Messenger tics right on schedule.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Nam probably going to be a tic or so east this run, Not surprised as it was so far west then the other models.

Yea, honing in....I don't think it matters because those WOR snows will be more prolific than modeled, anyway...IMHO

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Nam probably going to be a tic or so east this run, Not surprised as it was so far west then the other models.

SLP is stronger though by a couple mb.

[TheMainer]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

If your in greenville.

[LakeEffectKing]

Congrats to our forum brethren!  Looks historic to me.

One cautionary note, with the wind and liquid equivalents of 2+ inches, roofs of structures, especially weakened ones, will be taxed.. The wind will cause unequal distribution of snowfall and pack it down to become more dense.

 Enjoy fellow snow lovers!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly....its not a storm cancel thing...but just of a shift focus to jack me kinda thing.

 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, honing in....I don't think it matters because those WOR snows will be more prolific than modeled, anyway...IMHO

I don't mind i was getting subbied on it between bands

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

No....NE of me...follow along, dude.

[weatherwiz]

I want 30-40'' damn it...not necessarily my backyard (I'll be in Springfield so that isn't happening) but damn it I want to read and see reports of 30-40''. I want pictures of New England Cowboys fans jumping off roves into snow, pictures of Buffalo Bills fans jumping into tables on fire on top of snow drifts, pictures of people having to climb out of second floor windows to get out of their house. MAKE IT HAPPEN!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not sure how I would benefit from the dual low delaying the capture up the coast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We have 20-30 from JC, TIT, Ginx zone and then paint up thru ema into coastal Maine around Dryslut.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No....NE of me...follow along, dude.

It's the edibles 

[CoastalWx]

NAM has some pretty heavy snows SW CT into NYC near dawn.

[JC-CT]

16 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

You'd be surprised at how many will.  

keeps your face warm lol

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I agree with this. Still TBD. 

Also figuring out where the subby zone is just east of the big time deform snows.

I'd just assume it's Ray until there is strong evidence to the contrary

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have 20-30 from JC, TIT, Ginx zone and then paint up thru ema into coastal Maine around Dryslut.

Who is TIT

[dryslot]

Nam has the 2 lows too

[jbenedet]

The H5 trough looks deeper on the NAM through 15–better phasing.

[Baroclinic Zone]

By 09z Sat, SLP is equal to 06z run, just a smidge east. 982mb beast mode going on