Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

20 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Looks like more along track spread more than anything else.

There are massive CT crusher members in there that occluded early.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Getting my haircut while reading this. Laughed and my barber got mad at me

Took off 8” instead of 1”?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, 2015

Ah, ok so Jan15 got you up there. GL again with this. Tinctures and dendrites incoming...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, giventofly said:

BOX updated map

They need to add an 18-24" slice near 495 for starters...

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah, ok so Jan15 got you up there. GL again with this. Tinctures and dendrites incoming...

What ever the name of that blizzard was lol, 28.5"

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Took off 8” instead of 1”?

DotRatTailWx

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They need to add an 18-24" slice near 495 for starters...

I’d agree I’d run it from you down to Norfolk county and all of Bristol and Plymouth 

[JC-CT]

27 minutes ago, FXWX said:

That's only the ones who live and die with modeled snow totals and don't appreciate what a dynamic upper air setup is capable of doing and has done in the past; especially the evolution of that 500 mb low.

No offense, but that's not really fair to dismiss concerns about being on the fringes just because it's a big dynamic storm. March 2014 was as dynamic an upper air setup as they come...just too far east. Not saying this is March 2014, it's not...but there's always a fringe.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suspect the Capital District of eastern NYS is the real western "edge" to this one - would not be shocked..

Using the 12z Euro ... which, it's accedemic as most guidance has this below, these are about as close to the idealized jet couplet paradigm for explosive snow shield expansion over/within the cold sectors of winter coastal storms, as you will ever see.  This is the 300 mb centered on 48 hours (Sat 12z...). 

The models are definitely suspect with how far W the snow shield will expand imho -

The yellow circle is also the top of the evac channeling for the exit region of a 110 kt 500 mb jet curling around the eastern side and running up N of height falls approaching the M/A.   These models should really have at least light to moderate snows expanding over that region of NY ...possibly as the western extent...  

Yup.. You can see Logan 11’s silver hair blowing horizontally in the wind today . He’s standing at the property at 1300’ and the hair reaches to the 1150’ portion. Gleaming in the sun 

[CT Rain]

As mentioned the spread in the 12z EPS has only grown larger from 06z and 00z. Not really what you like to see this close to an event.

What surprised me was how many members have really ugly solutions. For example, 30% of members have <6" of snow for Boston. That's not an insignificant amount and it has increased from 00z.

[rnaude241]

I wish we could see James map for this storm. I bet it would be epic!

[dryslot]

GYX just hoisted watches here, Must of liked the euro.

[Torch Tiger]

I think some folks are latching onto these really high-end solutions and totals a bit early.

[JC-CT]

Seems like over the past 24 hours, we've evolved into a bit more of a wide turn then hard left hook scenario.

Could definitely see how sensitive timing differences could be to on-the-ground results with that

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup.. You can see Logan 11’s silver hair blowing horizontally in the wind today . He’s standing at the property at 1300’ and the hair reaches to the 1150’ portion. Gleaming in the sun 

 

[jbenedet]

54 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The Great Lakes blizzard of Jan 25-26 1978 reached a central pressure of 955 mbs at Sarnia ON (south end of L Huron lat 43N) around 12z 26th. I know of some storms that have hit eastern Canada into the low 940s but that is further north of course. You could also look up data for a storm on Mar 1-2 1914 near NYC that had very low central pressures (and gave NYC 14" snow, don't know what happened in New England, the low was south of Islip).

Yes and essentially proves my point. 

Sarnia is the same latitude as the central gulf of Maine—Portsmouth NH. That’s your extreme high end up here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

I think some folks are latching onto these really high-end solutions and totals a bit early.

Yea, they should be latching onto +9C day 8 H85 maps

[Roger Smith]

I just looked at some historical weather maps for the Blizzard of (March 12-13) 1888. The track of that looked pretty similar to what the NAM was showing around 06z today and the eventual map for the blizzard near ACK looks similar to the Euro 57-60h maps. Looks to me like those very high snowfall amounts were partly due to a rather slow forward speed of the storm. However I bet the ocean SST values in March 1888 were a good 5-10 F deg lower than what this storm is working with. 

My forecast would be like a few others I have seen here in map form although I would almost double some of the numbers in some cases. Think there will be places just inland from the east coast of MA with 35-42 inch outcomes. ORH won't be far off that either. An axis of heaviest snow will then extend southwest through RI into se CT and across LI Sound into Suffolk County LI. Amounts in that zone will probably be in the 20-30 inch range. There may be a secondary band further west that allows a few places in w/c MA into far w CT and possibly over towards LGA-JFK (with LI Sound squalls) to reach 18" with a bit of a lull in between bands 14-18. 

Seeing Albany near zero on some guidance that seems a bit pessimistic to me, maybe 2-4" there. Eventually there is going to be some Lake Ontario snow squall bands drawn into this departing circulation. 

When I see max snowfall over the Cape, I have to wonder, how realistic is that, wouldn't various factors such as low ratios and mixing lead to a cap of perhaps 24" out there? So that could be the max in a GFS east-track scenario I suppose, but if the Euro verifies then I would think the max would be places like (*hauls out atlas*) Lowell, Marlborough, Milford, even as far west as Worcester. But BOS could be close with 36" not out of reach. 

 

[JC-CT]

don't even need to read it...roger 

[ineedsnow]

more SREF members looking better atleast  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

I just looked at some historical weather maps for the Blizzard of (March 12-13) 1888. The track of that looked pretty similar to what the NAM was showing around 06z today and the eventual map for the blizzard near ACK looks similar to the Euro 57-60h maps. Looks to me like those very high snowfall amounts were partly due to a rather slow forward speed of the storm. However I bet the ocean SST values in March 1888 were a good 5-10 F deg lower than what this storm is working with. 

My forecast would be like a few others I have seen here in map form although I would almost double some of the numbers in some cases. Think there will be places just inland from the east coast of MA with 35-42 inch outcomes. ORH won't be far off that either. An axis of heaviest snow will then extend southwest through RI into se CT and across LI Sound into Suffolk County LI. Amounts in that zone will probably be in the 20-30 inch range. There may be a secondary band further west that allows a few places in w/c MA into far w CT and possibly over towards LGA-JFK (with LI Sound squalls) to reach 18" with a bit of a lull in between bands 14-18. 

Seeing Albany near zero on some guidance that seems a bit pessimistic to me, maybe 2-4" there. Eventually there is going to be some Lake Ontario snow squall bands drawn into this departing circulation. 

When I see max snowfall over the Cape, I have to wonder, how realistic is that, wouldn't various factors such as low ratios and mixing lead to a cap of perhaps 24" out there? So that could be the max in a GFS east-track scenario I suppose, but if the Euro verifies then I would think the max would be places like (*hauls out atlas*) Lowell, Marlborough, Milford, even as far west as Worcester. But BOS could be close with 36" not out of reach. 

 

Thanks, Roger George0001

[moneypitmike]

Can we name this storm "James"?

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

As mentioned the spread in the 12z EPS has only grown larger from 06z and 00z. Not really what you like to see this close to an event.

What surprised me was how many members have really ugly solutions. For example, 30% of members have <6" of snow for Boston. That's not an insignificant amount and it has increased from 00z.

Must be a slew of gfs like members 

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, Roger George0001

Not fair - Roger has been doing this for years

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

As mentioned the spread in the 12z EPS has only grown larger from 06z and 00z. Not really what you like to see this close to an event.

What surprised me was how many members have really ugly solutions. For example, 30% of members have <6" of snow for Boston. That's not an insignificant amount and it has increased from 00z.

I don’t like the cluster east there. Seems like the OP was on the western side of its own ensembles.

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows

 

Seems there is still a lot to be determined in such a short period of time. 18z will be massive.

Wonder what the GFS will show.

[Southshorewx]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Can we name this storm "James"?

Absolutely

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The euro ensembles having so much spread are definitely eye opening. Hopefully it’s not setting the stage for a rug pull to a gfs like solution 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Can we name this storm "James"?

probably should be extra certain the cape doesn't rain first

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Not fair - Roger has been doing this for years

I'm kidding, jesus lol