Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I get the feeling NBC is heading toward ceasing NECN 

I used to watch it back in the day.  Have no idea where it is on my cable system anymore.   

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Should be more west, but I'm not on the giddy bandwagon with this run yet.

Giggity instead?

[Chrisrotary12]

This NAM run might LBSW.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

This is within a 48-54hr forecast window:

[wxsniss]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sharper trough, Southern s/w is is phasing in at 21z where 18z was leaving it behind.

hr 48 that runaway convection that was to Bermuda 18z is gone

will 100% be better than 18z, but that's a low bar lol, so we'll see how this unfolds

again, key message is 18z was an anomaly

[ineedsnow]

at 51 looks great

[weathafella]

I urge you to look at 57 hoof the 18z run and compare to 51 0z.  Laughable 

[ariof]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This is within a 48-54hr forecast window:

It's only about a 450 mile jump. Like when we see a low go from ACK to BUF …

[MarkO]

... and here we go with the NAM. 3, 2, 1 go.

[dendrite]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This is within a 48-54hr forecast window:

That's actually decent for the NAM.

[weathafella]

I got ninjad above but it’s obvious that 18z was a fart.

[JC-CT]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the NAM is nothing like the 18z as expected, was just a hiccup earlier

both streams are more favorable

 

That's like saying it's a hiccup when Rudy Gobert misses a 3 pointer. This is just what it does, there was no hiccup.

[dryslot]

Just now, wxsniss said:

hr 48 that runaway convection that was to Bermuda 18z is gone

will 100% be better than 18z, but that's a low bar lol, so we'll see how this unfolds

again, key message is 18z was an anomaly

Yeah, Fair to say that run can be tossed.

[bristolri_wx]

Looks like the NAM is back on it's meds.   Needs to get that prescription on auto-fill so it doesn't have anymore 18z episodes...

[JJBASHB]

0z NAM looks way weaker with the convection/low off the coast vs 18z.  Wont be in the way of the main show as much?

[weathafella]

Like I said/ good for us or not the NAM continuity is a joke.

[Chrisrotary12]

At about hour 24 I stopped toggling with the 18z run and am now only toggling between 00z and 12z.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The whole model can be messed up at times.  It should figure this out by 12z Friday

NAM will become very useful when it's really time to zone in one mesoscale aspects (banding, potential subsidence)

[CT Rain]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

At about hour 24 I stopped toggling with the 18z run and am now only toggling between 00z and 12z.

Ha- I did the same.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This NAM run might LBSW.

That's digging pretty far south so quite possible.

[nutmegfriar]

18Z was the "pull my finger" run.

[78Blizzard]

Looks more like the 12z run this time.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

At about hour 24 I stopped toggling with the 18z run and am now only toggling between 00z and 12z.

So far it's closer to last night's 0z.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

At about hour 24 I stopped toggling with the 18z run and am now only toggling between 00z and 12z.

I have all three up lol

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Ha- I did the same.

Comparing those two.. What can you tell us? Cc: @Chrisrotary12

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Giggity instead?

Another run with increased confluence...not liking that.

[78Blizzard]

Slower than 12z.

[weatherwiz]

Just the upper-levels alone...you're going to have a rapid blossoming of precipitation well west

[Chrisrotary12]

Definitely a bit slower. Dragging its heals off Carolinas it seems.

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks more like the 12z run this time.

I think its even better than 12Z