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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
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14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This storm is not like Jan 16 but the divergence and spread amongst EPS members remind me of that time 24-36 hrs before the event.

And we have a lot longer to go than 24 hours.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-3544000.thumb.png.d3127b5606705909a174ff01a0a1105c.png

Hey girl wassup wassup witchu girl

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Fair enough, you right. Jan15 haunts us out here so it’s been tough to avoid the similarities. 

No qualms there . I recall that sharp cutoff vividly . 6” west of HFD and sun by mid morning while you guys looked east and saw a wall of white. I recall talking to my pops in New Milford and he could not believe what I was reporting . I don’t think this will be like that at all 

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18 minutes ago, FXWX said:

And a very impressive cluster shifting west.  

That's the key...clusters.  The mean is meaningless, it doesn't mean shit...bad puns but you get the point.  If you don't believe me, Google the Golden Mean Fallacy.

For God's sake, the mean incorporates a member 25 miles south of Newfoundland!

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

No qualms there . I recall that sharp cutoff vividly . 6” west of HFD and sun by mid morning while you guys looked east and saw a wall of white. I recall talking to my pops in New Milford and he could not believe what I was reporting . I don’t think this will be like that at all 

I was in Shelton then and yup, woke up to sunny skies and birds chirping. So I took a drive up the merritt and as I got close to 91 you can see the wall of white like a thunderstorm in the summer. I Continued the drive to my job in Manchester and just stayed in the parking lot for a few hours, got stoned… walked around, etc. it was a cool experience but when you return home to a sandy 6” with the sun shining and the asphalt glistening, it was deflating.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The freakouts are getting a bit ridiculous. This is still really 2.5+ days away. I know it seems plausible to want to see such strong agreement and consistency but the truth of the matter is we're still within the time frame where subtle differences are going to occur. Forgetting about these east vs. west swings, at the end of the day, we're not asking for significant changes here. For things to come together and be a very high-impact event for most...it's not like a ton has to happen for that to happen. There is a difference in needing drastic or substantial changes and very subtle. 

Like 100 miles west and it’s a massive difference. I think I saw Tip say earlier that at this lead time the envelope is like 150 to 200 miles - granted that was after the 12z so let’s say 120 to 180 now.

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5 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Ugh Geoff Fox, I don’t think any CT met ever hated winter as much 

Fun fact, he rode the Navy model one time on air for Mar 4-6 2001 when it was the only model showing virtually no snow and was progressive. I remember verbatim he said "it just spins up a couple inches and scoots outta here fast"

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Thousand of weenies refreshing every 2 seconds to hear Will say:

"GFS will be west. Way more amped already at 24"

or

"Gives the Cape a few inches at least" 

We will see.

Went to the store and made dinner… I’m at a complete loss as to what happened after the gfs

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11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm tired of the whining/bitching.  Act like an adult and you've seen snow or missed a snowstorm before.

:lol: Not going to lie that’s what makes it even better coming from the TAN crowd.  We’d think you guys would be able to sympathize with many other posters.

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