February 2022 Obs/Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would say the one hit wonder years, like 1996-1997 and 2011-2012, maybe you could make more of an argument about numbers lying...or the inverse on seasons like 2009-2010.

[JC-CT]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, its the active seasons that leave something on the field....I mean, what did 2019-2020, 2011-2012 and 2001-2002 leave on the field lol

Not sure how the numbers lie...85" is 85".

I remember 2012-13 as the year of modeled KUs only to continuously have them shredded through the meat grinder - until one didn't

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro would have been interesting if it went beyond 90

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro would have been interesting if it went beyond 90

Did it look like it was gonna bite on 2/8 possibly? 

[wx2fish]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro would have been interesting if it went beyond 90

18z EPS mean is west, tossing some qpf into sne. Probably a few interesting members.

[dryslot]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Something to watch anyway 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks warmish, crap airmass. 

[JC-CT]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks warmish, crap airmass. 

yes it does

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh. The winters are getting disrupted, period.
 
Making climate numbers off over producing minor systems that are benefitting from a theta-e bloated ambiance, meanwhile winters leaving huge potential consummately untapped … is a weirdly reduxing behavior and is different.  And a random Feb or Mar that didn’t leave as much on the table …? Yay  Those are exceptions to the rule and don’t abase the longer term.

I can’t allow myself to hide behind climate numbers to avoid admitting an unwanted change - that elides the reality. 

[JC-CT]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh. The winters are getting disrupted, period.
 
Making climate numbers off over producing minor systems that are benefitting from a theta-e bloated ambiance, meanwhile winters leaving huge potential consummately untapped … is a weirdly reduxing behavior and is different.  And a random Feb or Mar that didn’t leave as much on the table …? Yay  Those are exceptions to the rule and don’t abase the longer term.

I can’t allow myself to hide behind climate numbers to avoid admitting an unwanted change - that elides the reality. 

kind of like watching a train wreck in slow motion

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

kind of like watching a train wreck in slow motion

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty good down there. Why is 19/20 missing?

It is on my work computer...gotta email it to myself.

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I knew you guys were going to jump all over that "impression" with numbers but the numbers lie.

The numbers lie?  LOL....believe me dammit, not your lying eyes!

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Making climate numbers off over producing minor systems

Since 2008/2009, we have had fifteen double digit storms down here.  I was born in 1959...maybe I became weather aware in 67 give or take.  Here are the double digit storms we had between 67 and March of 93...which seemed to mark a turning point.

• 1969 Lindsay storm
• 2 blizzards in 1978...when I am away at college, great.
• April 1982
• February 1983

This is in no way an aggregation of minor systems.

[tavwtby]

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Since 2008/2009, we have had fifteen double digit storms down here.  I was born in 1959...maybe I became weather aware in 67 give or take.  Here are the double digit storms we had between 67 and March of 93...which seemed to mark a turning point.

• 1969 Lindsay storm
• 2 blizzards in 1978...when I am away at college, great.
• April 1982
• February 1983

This is in no way an aggregation of minor systems.

cyclical, just like everything else, the whole CC narrative is to fear monger people into fleecing them out of money, I'm sure there were periods before recording started where there were little great winters and some stretches of great ones i have went through the data for winters since 32, when the nearest station to me began official obs, and until the mid 50s, it was mediocre, from the mid 50s to mid 60s, it's was prolific, then another lull, peaks and valleys, anomalous winters sure, but cyclical nonetheless

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

cyclical, just like everything else, the whole CC narrative is to fear monger people into fleecing them out of money, I'm sure there were periods before recording started where there were little great winters and some stretches of great ones i have went through the data for winters since 32, when the nearest station to me began official obs, and until the mid 50s, it was mediocre, from the mid 50s to mid 60s, it's was prolific, then another lull, peaks and valleys, anomalous winters sure, but cyclical nonetheless

This is an ignorant comment. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

cyclical, just like everything else, the whole CC narrative is to fear monger people into fleecing them out of money, I'm sure there were periods before recording started where there were little great winters and some stretches of great ones i have went through the data for winters since 32, when the nearest station to me began official obs, and until the mid 50s, it was mediocre, from the mid 50s to mid 60s, it's was prolific, then another lull, peaks and valleys, anomalous winters sure, but cyclical nonetheless

Cc is real 

end discussion

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh. The winters are getting disrupted, period.
 
Making climate numbers off over producing minor systems that are benefitting from a theta-e bloated ambiance, meanwhile winters leaving huge potential consummately untapped … is a weirdly reduxing behavior and is different.  And a random Feb or Mar that didn’t leave as much on the table …? Yay  Those are exceptions to the rule and don’t abase the longer term.

I can’t allow myself to hide behind climate numbers to avoid admitting an unwanted change - that elides the reality. 

I don't deny climate change, but prolific winters leaving potential on the table has always happened.  Until these past few seasons, the longer term trend was actually towards more snow.

[WinterWolf]

54 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

cyclical, just like everything else, the whole CC narrative is to fear monger people into fleecing them out of money, I'm sure there were periods before recording started where there were little great winters and some stretches of great ones i have went through the data for winters since 32, when the nearest station to me began official obs, and until the mid 50s, it was mediocre, from the mid 50s to mid 60s, it's was prolific, then another lull, peaks and valleys, anomalous winters sure, but cyclical nonetheless

Great post! 
 

But lets take the cc talk to banter please.  

[George001]

1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

cyclical, just like everything else, the whole CC narrative is to fear monger people into fleecing them out of money, I'm sure there were periods before recording started where there were little great winters and some stretches of great ones i have went through the data for winters since 32, when the nearest station to me began official obs, and until the mid 50s, it was mediocre, from the mid 50s to mid 60s, it's was prolific, then another lull, peaks and valleys, anomalous winters sure, but cyclical nonetheless

I disagree. We have seen a trend towards more big ones yes, which explains why seasonal snowfall averages have increased. However, it seems like it’s harder and harder to get marginal systems to go our way. I do think climate change is a big part of this, as the warmer oceans help beef up storms, which helps us get more big ones. However, a warmer background state also works against us in more marginal events where we don’t have those dynamics. Although snowfall averages have increased here, they have decreased in areas to the south. The earth is getting warmer, and the rate of that warmth is accelerating. There’s a reason why every year we hear “this year is a top 10 warmest year on record”. 2021 was tied for the 6th warmest year on record in a goddamn raging La Niña. La Niña is a cyclical weather oscillation that favors COOLER average global temps, yet last year still was one of the warmest on record globally. You aren’t wrong about cyclical weather cycles, but climate change plays a huge role as well, and that role is getting bigger and bigger every year. 

[George001]

Good low location on the Canadian

[ORH_wxman]

2/8 seems like a long shot and not a great airmass anyway but who knows, maybe it threads a needle. 
 

A larger scale signal is showing up around 2/12-2/14ish…a lot of guidance juices the western ridge and we know what happens a lot with that. 
 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc seems mildly interested in 2/7-8 for ene.  So does my wunderground forecast of 1.8

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/8 seems like a long shot and not a great airmass anyway but who knows, maybe it threads a needle. 
 

A larger scale signal is showing up around 2/12-2/14ish…a lot of guidance juices the western ridge and we know what happens a lot with that. 
 

 

33 and rain?

[UnitedWx]

8 hours ago, eduggs said:

This is an ignorant comment. 

The premise of the statement may be...but there's a ton of truth to the actual statement. Look at the E car thing. It's a completely stupid solution to a problem that will make the typical people a ton of money while just creating tons of other problems. There are green ways to work with what we have already, but it doesn't fit the new big oil (E) narrative.

[tavwtby]

10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Cc is real 

end discussion

 

I could go on for paragraphs on how it's not, but I'll not clog up the obs thread with all the propo over the last 50 years about it

[DJln491]

11 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I could go on for paragraphs on how it's not, but I'll not clog up the obs thread with all the propo over the last 50 years about it

Please do

[ORH_wxman]

Ya'll can take the CC discussion to the CC forum or PM.

[Go Kart Mozart]

This 144 map is promising...before it goes to crap 24 hours later.  Worth keeping an eye on it: