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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A significant snowfall will continue to impact the Great Lakes region into tomorrow. The precipitation from that system will spread eastward, with a moderate to significant snowfall likely across upstate New York and central and northern New England. Detroit will likely see its first 10" or above snowfall since February 15-16, 2021 when 10.4" accumulated.

In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, mild but wet conditions will prevail tomorrow. Colder air will begin to press southward, producing a changeover to freezing rain, sleet, and some snow. Northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are at the greatest risk of seeing significant icing. A cold weekend will follow.

There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +13.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.548.

On January 31 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.477 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.552 (RMM).

 

 

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Except me ... :)   heh..

I mentioned the "D8-12" near the end of the  blizzard as the next interesting period ( for me...).   I did not anticipate ( honestly ..) this aspect in the foreground - though in my defense...I was not looking for it's type; that being non- large synoptic rooted, such as the last event was..etc.  This nearing system is an interesting arctic kiss against modest warm anomaly in both non-hydrostatic circulation manifold in the S, but one with modest warm hydrostatic heights - which is why there is unusual QPF likely to verify across a gargantuan swath of CONUS real-estate.  "Hadley ... I want you to meet Arctic - I think y'all 'ill hit it off"

Anyway, I "sorta" still like the D5 -10 range ( as it's gotten closer..), because the flow is showing a tendency ( still ) to bulge the +PNA ridge toward the Rockies.  WHILE, and this is important ...the flow subtended E across the mid latitudes of the continent appears to "relax" gradient some. This offers room for amplitude/ .. less overall large --> shorter scale negative interference ( which is really what speeding flow/compression really represents). 

The only problem is ... we are not getting delivered any kind of stronger Pac wave mechanics into that described arena, such that anything meaningful can spawn.  So, it's like a scaffolding for building that never gets filled in.  This happened a year ago in January - the flow relaxed and there wasn't much to take advantage of it.  It just sort of came and went - maybe you remember that.  I dunno.  Point is ... it happens.

I think if a S/W does get introduced, it may take advantage - but I've been in wait. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the way, as as separate aspect... Folks are mentioning the MJO.   I'd be careful using that for this first two weeks of February, as NCEP is being pretty clear that there are local time scale Rossby wave(s) activity that is in wave-space conflict  ... causing suppression of the wave's emergence through the Marine continent.   It may change heading into week two, but by then, it's forcing ( if it can ...) time lags into week 3.  Yikes.. In other words, it may not work to depend much on any MJO feedbacks.  

Also, I recall mentioning in my own 'tepid takes' wrt to the seasonal outlook game earlier this last autumn, that I thought the La Nina and the atmosphere may uncouple as the season progressed ( won't go into reasons why, as they piss off Ray LOL... ).. No but that is being observed now, as the low level westerlies are currently disonnected from the La Nina circulation model.

The MJO remains weak, with both the RMM-based and CPC velocity potential based indices
reflecting low amplitude and no eastward progression.
There are indications of an eastward propagating enhanced convective envelope now over the
Indian Ocean, but a remarkably strong Rossby wave is destructively interfering with this signal.
Anomalous lower-level westerlies over the east-central Pacific reflect a continued disruption of the
La Niña background state.

Nah, ENSO forcing ebbs and flows...I wouldn't debate that. I don't argue that climate change is altering things somewhat, either.

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Next week is a classic Tip warm bum-bums in the car type of week....atmosphere is cold enough to support snow but getting into 2nd week of February means if its sunny, it will feel pretty warm when you don't have a fresh airmass in place. Those are the type of days that are like 41/9 for the rad pits that have snow cover.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next week is a classic Tip warm bum-bums in the car type of week....atmosphere is cold enough to support snow but getting into 2nd week of February means if its sunny, it will feel pretty warm when you don't have a fresh airmass in place. Those are the type of days that are like 41/9 for the rad pits that have snow cover.

The truck was quite toasty yesterday afternoon.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next week is a classic Tip warm bum-bums in the car type of week....atmosphere is cold enough to support snow but getting into 2nd week of February means if its sunny, it will feel pretty warm when you don't have a fresh airmass in place. Those are the type of days that are like 41/9 for the rad pits that have snow cover.

Great ski week if anyone gets some time to come up here.

Sunny, mid-20s, deep powder, and perfect groomers. Doesn't get much better.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next week is a classic Tip warm bum-bums in the car type of week....atmosphere is cold enough to support snow but getting into 2nd week of February means if its sunny, it will feel pretty warm when you don't have a fresh airmass in place. Those are the type of days that are like 41/9 for the rad pits that have snow cover.

...and I know it's silly, and even petty annoying for those that hate the thought of winter ending.. But those types of super discrete tedious environmental changes really are the very beginning of seasonal change. 

I mean ( not directed at you - ) those days don't 'warm' cars or south facing window sills beween Nov 8 and Feb 8, nearly as proficiently as they do on Feb 12 ... It's a noticeable thing.  There really is quantifiable increases in watt/m2 that cross a threshold on the 8th, one that is celestial mechanical of Earth's orbit position vs tilt circumstance, caused.

But, ...normal seasonal climate lag/momentum is overwhelming... and obviously, smashes that factor at least until May 1 ... as blizzards in springs remind.  That is, at least in 1980 climate. 

It seems in recent decade(s), springs are just as hugely vagarious as autumns have been. I have personally observed three February's where a week hosted 70s and two touched 80 on at least one of those days!  March... three or four times too in the last 10 years.  And 90s once or twice in Aprils.  This, despite the some hefty March snow event reminder years, too. Regardless, probably near equal number of Mays as Octobers, having produced if not a synoptic car-topper, packing pellet CAA virga exploded CU days.  That turn of phrase is designed to intimate no discernible bias, the pattern is 'lack of pattern' in itself.  

I remember in the early 2020 Pandemic, in May, sitting out on back deck of a buddy's house, where is salon wife was cutting our hair.  We sat in sweaters doubting the truth of the Pandemic with occasional flurries going by... christ.  May - ...  Yet, it was in the 70s earlier that February - again.   And we've suffered this unusual wide standard deviation latitude in Octobers and Novembers, too.  At both seasonal ends, the frequency increase is oh ... 5X's  above the previous 200 years of climate signal for SD oscillation that are above ~ 3.   Maybe it's just a weird noisy 20 years ... ( yeah right).

 

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What's been the deal this year with shortwaves getting stretched out? Seems like a repetitive thing with these positively tilted troughs. Energy gets stretched out with some getting left behind. Even last weekends event had issues with it. 

6z gfs has another example of this coming up....

 

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-4235200.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-4397200.png

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16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

What's been the deal this year with shortwaves getting stretched out? Seems like a repetitive thing with these positively tilted troughs. Energy gets stretched out with some getting left behind. Even last weekends event had issues with it. 

6z gfs has another example of this coming up....

 

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-4235200.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-4397200.png

Hadley Cell man, the effing Hadley Cell.

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is there even anything there? Haven’t Heard anything about the 8th except one time. 

Ukie and GGEM have it today....GFS was a close miss. We'll see if Euro bites.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree with Donny B second half of Feb may have warmer tendencies. Maybe not straight torch, but cutter risk.

I am getting to the point where I just want to be done with it, and sacrifice another sub 50% of mean seasonal snowfall to the gods of regression. Not complaining, but its been exhausting.

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