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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, it D10, no use in discussing in detail because we both know it's gonna change next run, but I don't believe we escape the next 2 weeks without a threat (or two) to track.  And yeah...JB, lol.  Everything is always '93 with him

We are very much still in business after Sunday. I honestly think this could end up a very memorable winter month.

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@psuhoffman Got a couple questions about your post:

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So he isn't wrong that this is the kind of pattern to get the NS to dig down and phase and get amplified storms but he goes full over the top hype mode as usual.   Also its not necessarily what we want as were seeing now these types of storms can cut if we dont have enough confluence to our north.

So if that the problem we're seeing with Sunday's mixed mess? Not enough confluence? Or was is something else involved too? Is there a reason why "this type" of storm can cut?

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The key is to either have something blocking the flow, a well timed 50/50 or wave coming over the top in front of it... and it would also help not to have another NS wave diving in and phasing right behind it!    

I guess this question might be one more for one of the zoom chats...I wanna see exactly what you mean by "a well timed 50/50 coming over the top".

And to the other issue when a NS waves phases right behind...YUCK. All I can see is March 2018--boo! (Although I don't fully understand why that made the storm do what it did). So in other words....if we can get the Great Lakes to play nice, maybe we get something going! :D

 

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Euro at 240 was about to phase and go nuts. I can't see the heights in the Arctic on pivotal, but it looks like there's kind of a Scandinavian Ridge poking a little into the NAO domain, a bit of a 50/50, a +PNA, and the ridge axis out west anchored in Idaho. I'm not going to sniff at that.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro is trying for another NS phase job with a gulf system next weekend.  Might not pull it off this run but interesting and somewhat similar to this.  We were discussing this in the last few zoom chats... JB is right about one thing...this is the kind of pattern where you can get the NS to dig far enough south to get these amplified systems coming up out of the gulf coast.  But they aren't going to be 1993...even for a triple phased system that was a once in a lifetime thing.  We've had several other triple phased storms but they usually phase and bomb further north like the November 51 and January 66 storms.  So he isn't wrong that this is the kind of pattern to get the NS to dig down and phase and get amplified storms but he goes full over the top hype mode as usual.   Also its not necessarily what we want as were seeing now these types of storms can cut if we dont have enough confluence to our north.  The key is to either have something blocking the flow, a well timed 50/50 or wave coming over the top in front of it... and it would also help not to have another NS wave diving in and phasing right behind it!    

I agree. I honestly don't want another 1993-type storm. Interesting and all, but give me a wet, phased system that runs into a block and gets tucked in just off of OCMD as the upper-level comes in from behind. I don't need ridiculous dynamics and all that - that just spells trouble for us. Let's be honest - we do those pretty well, if only occasionally. We're (MBY) NEVER going to be on the big end of a triple-phased monster.

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12 hours ago, weathercoins said:

Good afternoon all … exactly what time will the snow start for the NW DC suburbs and exactly how many inches???? Not talking about the storm this Sunday I’m talking about the possible Miller A in ten days thanks 

It starts at 330pm on a Monday. The snow becomes heavy right away, wall of snow. There will be thundersnows. You get anywhere from 11 to 18 inches. No mixing, tho there may be some mixing in SE VA and E NC. Massive storm, lots of moisture and decent cold air. There'll be other snows after that, too.

We've only just begun.

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8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Not looking very cold anymore....who spilled the salt shaker?

Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum,  the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. 

from bluewave below: 

'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February."

 

6EAADEA0-71D8-45C6-8A04-7638FB1E0BF0.thumb.png.a1cc747ed4cf586be59865aad21d678b.png

23D0E966-F6BE-4095-8FCF-286109990703.thumb.png.3a356c39b0c9a7828feae0b654b7a161.png

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11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Not looking very cold anymore....who spilled the salt shaker?

Euro n GFS look seasonable this coming week with a BN pattern for next week. Euro being colder than GFS. 8 to 14 day outlook still shows us BN during the same period.

106F30A4-7051-4323-894F-2B8B26E5A454.gif

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum,  the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. 

from bluewave below: 

'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February."

 

6EAADEA0-71D8-45C6-8A04-7638FB1E0BF0.thumb.png.a1cc747ed4cf586be59865aad21d678b.png

23D0E966-F6BE-4095-8FCF-286109990703.thumb.png.3a356c39b0c9a7828feae0b654b7a161.png

Ok good then it can snow 14" in Fredericksburg again with the -PNA

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum,  the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. 

from bluewave below: 

'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February."

 

6EAADEA0-71D8-45C6-8A04-7638FB1E0BF0.thumb.png.a1cc747ed4cf586be59865aad21d678b.png

23D0E966-F6BE-4095-8FCF-286109990703.thumb.png.3a356c39b0c9a7828feae0b654b7a161.png

Feb will work just fine with that bottom pattern.

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5 minutes ago, George BM said:

Putting this in here as well. Possible implications down the road? We'll see. This is the Tonga eruption which occurred just after 400z today.

We back to volcanoes, asteroids, and strat warning?

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