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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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20 minutes ago, George BM said:

Putting this in here as well. Possible implications down the road? We'll see. This is the Tonga eruption which occurred just after 400z today.

Probably not even close to being large enough for long term impacts. We'll see if it keeps spewing SO2 but it takes a lot to do anything to climate. 

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26 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Forget it. We already see the back side of this upcoming pattern.

The number of times the message in here has been that the long range looks bad and it turned out fine and vice versa is high. I wouldn't get all overwhelmed by the long range. 

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2 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Still a small signal around 1/22-23.

image.thumb.png.274cc56d2584d269b14c09f9c0808156.png 


image.thumb.png.86fd654d44baefefd5e30a70eec0ccc8.png


 

image.thumb.png.2658869c7af638e1aed5790d78fabc8b.png

GEFS is holding onto that signal as well. Still showing up a bit on the OP runs, like with what the Canadian tried to do at hr 180. Pretty suppressive look up top, but as we learned with this recent system, that can easily change. 

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Just now, Amped said:

Impressive snowstorm in the SE.    Another closed low 500 low moving across the gulf coast

Looks pretty enticing. NAO goes from - to + during this timeframe, so there's decent HA storm signal. Would probably also help offset how far east the trough is. Ensembles should be fun. 

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