January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

Our power never went out.
 

Impossible - not even a flicker?

[Stormfly]

13 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Impossible - not even a flicker?

Yep.

Our power here is strange.  During a storm, sometimes severe, never a trace of anomaly.  (outside of 6kV spikes from lightning but those generally don't initiate a transfer except UBS which is critical systems)
A perfectly clear day OTOH, sometimes there's a blip or even total outage lasting a few seconds to 30 minutes.
Been that way for over 10 years.

Yesterday afternoon there was an anomaly which caused a transfer, for example.  I know because I get a text immediately.
 

 

[Steve25]

10 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Yep.

Our power here is strange.  During a storm, sometimes severe, never a trace of anomaly.  (outside of 6kV spikes from lightning but those generally don't initiate a transfer except UBS which is critical systems)
A perfectly clear day OTOH, sometimes there's a blip or even total outage lasting a few seconds to 30 minutes.
Been that way for over 10 years.

Yesterday afternoon there was an anomaly which caused a transfer, for example.  I know because I get a text immediately.
 

 

Same exact thing in my neighborhood. Power will go out on the most clear days out of the blue. Never goes out during storms though. 

[jaydreb]

If 18z GFS doesn’t show at least 35” IMBY it’s a disaster.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s next weekend that I think is worthy of monitoring.

[Buddy1987]

Man how close was that absolute missile from being caught? What an absolute mauling for NE at 144

[nj2va]

Quite the blizzard next Friday on the GFS for LI/NE.  Tons of energy rounding the base of the trough but the timing is a bit off in time for our latitude.  Certainly bears watching.

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s next weekend that I think is worthy of monitoring.

 

 

[Rhino16]

The weenies need to get off TT until the whole model is in, they’re slowing it down. Anyways, guessing the mountains will destroy whatever that is at 174.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s next weekend that I think is worthy of monitoring.

Move that Low another 100 miles West and develop it earlier….we are in business. Big change from 12z to 18z

[Scraff]

The storm on Friday looks nuts! Too bad it’s a swing and a miss. However—wouldn’t take much for it to pull back towards the coast and crush us. 

[NorthArlington101]

The weenies need to get off TT until the whole model is in, they’re slowing it down. Anyways, guessing the mountains will destroy whatever that is at 174.

Least a little makes it over - snowing at 186.

[jaydreb]

NE weenies probably loving this run of the GFS.  

[nj2va]

GFS looks good for the mountains next weekend.  Gets snow from the LP as it passes our area and then upslope gets cranking as the LP heads NE. Would be good timing for the long weekend at the ski resorts.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The gfs ain’t exactly locked in on the system at the end of the week.

[nj2va]

59 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

If 18z GFS doesn’t show at least 35” IMBY it’s a disaster.  

Time to cancel winter.  No blizzard this run.

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Time to cancel winter.  No blizzard this run.

JI about to   

[mattie g]

17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs ain’t exactly locked in on the system at the end of the week.

I know you know this, but we won’t be locked into anything unless we get a killer block and a real southern stream storm. We’re going to see crazy solutions up and down the east coast in the medium to long range while we’re in this pattern. Those exact solutions will come and go, but someone will eventually cash in on an event in which the models will give weenies decent confidence at about 72 hours out (whether it’s us that gets hit or those farther northeast).

[Maestrobjwa]

Might be in for some wild model swings during this quiet weather week! Watch at your own risk...lol (another interesting psychology bit: why we react to even long range model run solutions the way we do--despite knowing how much things jump around!)

[poolz1]

38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs ain’t exactly locked in on the system at the end of the week.

Was just going to post....Went from a south ATL low north of the Bahamas to a coastal NE snowstorm.  Just a wag, but there will likely be some slight adjustment in the coming days.

18z GFS was close to a repeat of the 12z run for late in the period.  Too much squish this run but the phase tried!

12z eps had a few nice signals. Including a beaut for the 12z gfs' timeframe...

[WinterWxLuvr]

24 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I know you know this, but we won’t be locked into anything unless we get a killer block and a real southern stream storm. We’re going to see crazy solutions up and down the east coast in the medium to long range while we’re in this pattern. Those exact solutions will come and go, but someone will eventually cash in on an event in which the models will give weenies decent confidence at about 72 hours out (whether it’s us that gets hit or those farther northeast).

I’m thinking we see a system of interest within the next 7 days. I will not be looking beyond that time.

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m thinking we see a system of interest within the next 7 days. I will not be looking beyond that time.

Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if something pops up in that time.

Long-range monster snowstorms are [incredibly!] fun to see modeled, but there’s just no reason to pay attention to details on ops at range. We say it all the time, and I understand why folks want the odd crazy solution to come true, but we just need to take it as one of innumerable possible ultimate solutions.

[snowfan]

GFS LR have things flying all over the place with cold nearby nearly the entire run. Love it.

[nj2va]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Was just going to post....Went from a south ATL low north of the Bahamas to a coastal NE snowstorm.  Just a wag, but there will likely be some slight adjustment in the coming days.

18z GFS was close to a repeat of the 12z run for late in the period.  Too much squish this run but the phase tried!

12z eps had a few nice signals. Including a beaut for the 12z gfs' timeframe...

Great post. That map shows the multiple chances that the pattern could produce. It feels like we’re on the right side of luck (finally) so I like our chances of one of these waves EPS is keying in on (or another) working out. 

[SnowenOutThere]

59 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m thinking we see a system of interest within the next 7 days. I will not be looking beyond that time.

Any ideas to where those threat might pop up, besides MLK weekend.

[clskinsfan]

The long range potential of the GFS is salivating. Just look at the split flow, active southern stream and blocking over the top. You have REAL artic air dumping into the country straight out of Siberia through the entire month of January. Get the streams to merge on any of these chances and someone on the east coast is getting smoked. An elongated PV could lead to our southern friends getting hit instead. But the potential on these recent runs is the best I have seen since since 2009/10. 

 

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas to where those threat might pop up, besides MLK weekend.

I think the ops out to about a week give a good feel for timing of possible events. Ensembles will help as you go farther out.

This is all said with a HUGE asterisk next to it. Surface weather on any model looking out beyond three days in a relatively volatile pattern can’t be trusted, but they give you a feel for the timing of potential events IYBY.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

The long range potential of the GFS is salivating. Just look at the split flow, active southern stream and blocking over the top. You have REAL artic air dumping into the country straight out of Siberia through the entire month of January. Get the streams to merge on any of these chances and someone on the east coast is getting smoked. An elongated PV could lead to our southern friends getting hit instead. But the potential on these recent runs is the best I have seen since since 2009/10. 

It’s about time we had something to be excited about.

Now watch us get shut out.

[LeesburgWx]

I’m watching news and radar videos of 2016… God, I hope this pattern gives us the unicorn we are looking for.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas to where those threat might pop up, besides MLK weekend.

The threat window opens +/- Friday IMO. And gets better most likely as we move into the following week. But there’s a ton of shortwaves flying around and the track of any storm is contingent on the conditions prepared by the previous wave. I think it’s possible by Tuesday that we might know if we’re in the game for something in the Friday-Sunday period. Anything after that will take longer. Don’t get too beholden too any individual Op scenario until a storm is within 72-96 hours at most.