Go Kart Mozart Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 That cold front diving into the convergence cone off the Carolina's could be a big deal: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Some op runs trying to make 24th interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some op runs trying to make 24th interesting. This will sound strange coming from me, but I would sacrifice a KU for a moderate event starting late xmas eve PM into xmas PM. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some op runs trying to make 24th interesting. 12z GFS is a good example of that NAO block doing a lot of dirty work. Notice how every system that makes an attempt to go west of us gets crunched underneath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 That system crawling up the coast on the 22-23rd ish is showing subtle signs it wants to be more of a player than just wide right. it's be creeping closer each run. Might not amount to anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hazey said: That system crawling up the coast on the 22-23rd ish is showing subtle signs it wants to be more of a player than just wide right. it's be creeping closer each run. Might not amount to anything though. Too bad the streams are so discrete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Personally hoping for good weather Christmas Eve and day because I'm driving 200 miles to my sister. Bad weather means staying at home alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z GFS is a good example of that NAO block doing a lot of dirty work. Notice how every system that makes an attempt to go west of us gets crunched underneath. Love the fact that accums are down to central Jersey. Buffer for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Personally hoping for good weather Christmas Eve and day because I'm driving 200 miles to my sister. Bad weather means staying at home alone. Miller B east ; 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 60-61F around here right now with partial sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Everything blows up east on the ensembles....great pattern for New Foundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke. Things can pop quick in this..we watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke. I know there is still time for this whole thing to flip to some raging Grinch cutter....But at least at this point it looks like seasonable weather for the holidays, with a chance of wintry weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, Spanks45 said: I know there is still time for this whole thing to flip to some raging Grinch cutter....But at least at this point it looks like seasonable weather for the holidays, with a chance of wintry weather.... Not gonna grinch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 All I want for Christmas is a nuke Blizzard! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 BDL at 62F, so the record has been broken. 60F was the old one from 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke. I think this should be monitored on the 22nd and 23rd for that thing to make a re-appearance, old school style, in guidance... We can see below, close! That N-stream is just not quite digging enough, but ...notice that time stamp there says 174 hours... And given the speed of the overall system translations in the flow, the total N-stream aspect of this is probably somewhere NW of the Aleutian archipelago ... and with the flow during this run-up era buckling toward more N-S constructs over the Alaskan sector... it's not a far-gone conclusion as to whether that'll start digging more in future run cycles. ya know ... we typically lose, or lose significance, systems in the ext...it'd seem almost fitting if one 'emerges' instead. Although ...the 22n/23rd was in there 3 or 4 days ago, just sayn' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think this should be monitored on the 22nd and 23rd for that thing to make a re-appearance, old school style, in guidance... We can see below, close! That N-stream is just not quite digging enough, but ...notice that time stamp there says 174 hours... And given the speed of the overall system translations in the flow, the total N-stream aspect of this is probably somewhere NW of the Aleutian archipelago ... and with the flow during this run-up era buckling toward more N-S constructs over the Alaskan sector... it's not a far-gone conclusion as to whether that'll start digging more in future run cycles. ya know ... we typically lose, or lose significance, systems in the ext...it'd seem almost fitting if one 'emerges' instead. Although ...the 22n/23rd was in there 3 or 4 days ago, just sayn' Euro looked quite interesting for that date too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Personally hoping for good weather Christmas Eve and day because I'm driving 200 miles to my sister. Bad weather means staying at home alone. What do you have for a vehicle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 OP euro solution is kind of ugly in that the southern stream gets totally isolated and cutoff but the fact there is a storm there is good to see. Even with those flaws, it's pretty close to a good event. One of the flaws on this run is that a chunk of the PV that was previously getting pinned under the NAO block actually retrogrades back west into the PNA domain, which gives us a worse airmass to work with too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: What do you have for a vehicle? Volvoxc70. But I'm disabled and if I get stuck I can't walk in the snow. And I have to take I-84 which has alot of road construction. I might leave early, but then I wouldn't see my son for Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Euro moved closer to a colder solution for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: OP euro solution is kind of ugly in that the southern stream gets totally isolated and cutoff but the fact there is a storm there is good to see. Even with those flaws, it's pretty close to a good event. One of the flaws on this run is that a chunk of the PV that was previously getting pinned under the NAO block actually retrogrades back west into the PNA domain, which gives us a worse airmass to work with too. Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada. Yeah agreed... I think that period 22 -25th is still on the table... It'd be ( I think? ) the 22nd event these models toyed with 4 days back, but lost it. But that chart above is/are a part of the moving pieces back then, still being negotiated in these runs now... I don't think - duh - at D7+ it is too much to ask for this to modulate back into significance. I just you know honestly I wouldn't really be hitting at it, but these blocking nodes, Greenland ( and trending W by the way ...) and -(WPO;EPO), are evolving, ..which means no one from Colorado to NF is safe at this point. interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada. That's very interesting you see it on the EPS but not the OP...or actually maybe it really isn't that interesting. Could it be a smoothing issue? Or maybe it just indicates that there are a ton more members hinting at such a look? Also, it is interesting to note on the OP you have that cut-off low off the coast...so is that really a piece of the PV lobe there on the EPS or is it just there is enough of a weakness with that ridge to allow interaction between that deep trough into central Canada and the cut-off low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada. Sell OP. Buy EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Weeklies are pretty nice....they shift the PAC/Aleutian ridge eastward in January so it's more over the GOA and EPO region...so we lose the deeply negative PNA trough. Here's the 5 day mean Jan 10th and then the same thing for Jan 17th...note how the ridge moves eastward. This is getting pretty far out there but that would be a good time for that to happen as they start to lose the NAO blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies are pretty nice....they shift the PAC/Aleutian ridge eastward in January so it's more over the GOA and EPO region...so we lose the deeply negative PNA trough. Here's the 5 day mean Jan 10th and then the same thing for Jan 17th...note how the ridge moves eastward. This is getting pretty far out there but that would be a good time for that to happen as they start to lose the NAO blocking I think you or Ray and others mentioned that in January, any major difference from say a week or go? Meaning hanging around longer ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 What a miserable day. 39.6° and heavy fog off of a high of 41°. The front is on the north side of CON right now. MHT airport was partly sunny and 56° on the car thermo…upper 40s and BKN at CON. You hit that cold air/fog like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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