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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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clskinsfan
clskinsfan

The blocking looks to hold on through mid Dec at least. None of us are getting buried the next 4 weeks. But I think snow is coming for the favored areas. Now give me a weenie. 

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

That much of an anomalous west-based -NAO on a 10-15 day mean is just insane. We should start to see some chances around Christmas into the New Year with shortwaves rolling underneath the block (like

WxUSAF
WxUSAF

@MillvilleWx at the party

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Starting to get that 2001 - 02 feel.

I was going to post this yesterday but somehow resisted it.  Thank you.

As for GEFS, I get the feeling there is a classic thermal boundry setting up for the late holiday / post holiday period.  On the right side of the boundry is cold/dry and on the wrong side you have today and the rest of this week.  This pattern will eventually produce some cold days and nights, and pity snows (cartoppers).  Chance of brine 90%.

There is legit cold air in western canada but without a mechanism to force it down, it's hard to envision a sustained period of deep winter.

IIRC the all time January high temp for several stations in VA was set in late January 2002 (~80*F).

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

From what people are saying this upcoming post Christmas through Mid January looks to be a pretty good pattern for us. What should we roughly expect snowfall wise? I know nothing is certain but by the end of this pattern should we at least get one storm?

That's not how forecasting really works. You can't say "In this pattern we expect 10 inches of snow in the next 4 weeks" - the exact same/similar pattern can yield vastly different results. As PSU has said - a lot is luck. Then add in chaos as well. 

Nobody can guarantee anything - not even "one storm" based on longwave H5 patterns. Just not how it works. All we can say is "X pattern looks good going into the next 2-4 weeks" - beyond that it's pretty much the unknown. 

ETA: You seem to want to apply short-term forecasting abilities to long term patterns. There's not some metric that says "H5 pattern = X, therefore Snow > 6 inches in region" - BIGGEST word that will derail you in your post was "EXPECT" - you should never "expect" any snow ;) 

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IronTy

IronTy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Looking at the GEFS/GEFSX, our temps are average to a few degrees below average from the last few days of Dec through Jan 18 verbatim. I'll take that on a mean.

No JB weenie ass vodka cold showing up though.

In fairness to JB he was referring verbatim to the GEFS output, not what he thought was going to happen.  I give JB a lot of shit (though I've been a paying member for years) but I can't think of anybody in the business who can pull historical analogs out of their ass better than him.  

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IronTy

IronTy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mattie g said:

If the EPO does cooperate and we get the blocking that's showing up on the ensembles, then I think we do get cold and our chances start shortly thereafter, which is when our general chances at frozen start to increase significantly in general.

While I realize that waiting a little bit for the pattern to favor us is much better than having it kick in earlier, I kinda wish we'd seen this like 10 days earlier so that we'd have a better shot at some white leading into Christmas...though I'm not going to complain about it if we do wait and it comes to fruition!

Yeah i agree. Haven't had a white Christmas in decades though I guess I expect it down here.  At the very least I would like some cold weather so I can burn some of this firewood I got stacked all over.  Can't complain about cold heading into January though.  Lol but last time we had a cold January spell I managed to start my huge compost pile on fire during that wind storm and the flames must be been 30ft tall. I was legit afraid I'd burn the neighborhood down.  Of course the hoses were frozen so all I had was my tiny kitchen fire extinguisher which quickly ran out.  I used buckets of water and rakes after that....luckily got it under control.  Next day I went on Amazon and bought three large fire extinguishers just in case....

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Yeoman

Yeoman

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, IronTy said:

In fairness to JB he was referring verbatim to the GEFS output, not what he thought was going to happen.  I give JB a lot of shit (though I've been a paying member for years) but I can't think of anybody in the business who can pull historical analogs out of their ass better than him.  

Worlds best ass puller.. keep the $$ coming and he'll personally hand pick only those that keep you coming back.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Might be the strongest -PNA on record for December, 12z GFS ensembles have 2 separate reloads of +640dm and +600dm! Enjoy the pure extremes over weather for the next two weeks.. observe what a High pressure in the Central North Pacific Ocean is like here. 

I’ll give credit. You called this well in advance

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Might be the strongest -PNA on record for December, 12z GFS ensembles have 2 separate reloads of +640dm and +600dm! Enjoy the pure extremes over weather for the next two weeks.. observe what a High pressure in the Central North Pacific Ocean is like here. 

Sounds like a big pot of ass stew

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Might be the strongest -PNA on record for December, 12z GFS ensembles have 2 separate reloads of +640dm and +600dm! Enjoy the pure extremes over weather for the next two weeks.. observe what a High pressure in the Central North Pacific Ocean is like here. 

Might be the kiss of death for us this winter. We're about to enter peak climo for cool temps and if the Pacific isn't going to cooperate, then it's probably best to just turn off the lights and hope for something better next year or move north.

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dallen7908

dallen7908

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Even for Tasslemeyer…just. No.

Crazy of him to event mention an "event" that would be 10-days away beginning on XMAS eve; an operational model has no skill 10-days out and ensembles are only useful for guidance as to whether or not there will be an east-coast event. 

But I couldn't resist: 5 of the 51 EPS members show snow on the 24th or 25th- with a maximum amount of ~1". 

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IUsedToHateCold

IUsedToHateCold

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Stormfly said:

The Derecho didn't affect us at all.  We were on the northern fringe.  Which was fine by me!  Northern VA OTOH was a mess indeed.

Sandy also brought wind but we didn't lose power aside from some flickers.  Total number of outages in BGE territory similar to the Jan 26, 2011 "Carmageddon" event. (250K) Irene and Isabel seem to be the highest (outage) events with over 700K outages.

March 2018 was a very long event too.  Fortunately we just don't get widespread winds with full tree canopy.   Even so there is too much vegetation impingement in our area.

Winter 2010-2011 is my favorite analog for this one. It's a match in many different ways (sea ice, SST anomalies, IOD). So maybe another Jan 26, 2011 event to come in 2022? 

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StormchaserChuck!

StormchaserChuck!

Posted
Posted

Furthermore, El Nino's that missed it, and had a -3SD> December -PNA vs ENSO state include 1957, 65, 72, 97, and the following February (Feb 2023 analog)fwiw -PNA next year maybe. I also mention this because the other 2 times 6th year after Strong El Nino, 7th year broke it(this shows not). ^(for ENSO analogs) subsurface ENSO is Kelvin Wave/warm-neutral now(El Nino slight analog, -PNA is 3-4SDsvsENSO right now: -PNA signal next Jan-Feb)

9g.png

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, IronTy said:

In fairness to JB he was referring verbatim to the GEFS output, not what he thought was going to happen.  I give JB a lot of shit (though I've been a paying member for years) but I can't think of anybody in the business who can pull historical analogs out of their ass better than him.  

I was referring verbatim to the GEFS output. One of us is wrong, er engaging in nonsensical hyperbole.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Might be the kiss of death for us this winter. We're about to enter peak climo for cool temps and if the Pacific isn't going to cooperate, then it's probably best to just turn off the lights and hope for something better next year or move north.

Relax. The north pac ridge isn’t ideal but it could be worse. I’d be way more pessimistic if it was a mid latitude ridge again like recent years. Then we’d have the conus blasted with pac puke again. 
 

We know the best we can realistically hope for is a decent winter giving the limitations of the pac base state.  Given the options (we know there will be a ridge somewhere in the pac this isn’t the type base state where we can get a huge trough there which would be ideal) this is as good as we can hope for. It’s not working now because we just had an AK vortex and a positive AO and NAO.  Would you rather that ridge in the pac retreat and the vortex pull back to Ak and we repeat early last year?  
 

Blocking has a lag. We go through this everytime a block is just setting in. Its not instant. But if the blocking has staying power eventually the cold will spread east under the block. History shows a -epo/-NAO in January/February is cold enough.  
 

Thibgs could fail. A epo/NAO pattern in a Nina can be frustratingly dry. And we always need luck. And maybe the blocking fades too fast. Dunno. But there are no signs of it yet. So wait until after Xmas at least before throwing in the towel on a pattern that’s still a week away from starting. 

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