December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This is why I talk about luck so much....

this winter...

was snowier than this winter...

I remember JB saying he nailed the upper air pattern of 01-02. Gave himself an A--but he had some really bad luck

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I remember JB saying he nailed the upper air pattern of 01-02. Gave himself an A--but he had some really bad luck

Naw thats some BULL because I remember he was calling for some epic cold/snowy winter (his status quo defacto forecast) and this...

looks pretty bad on the whole.  What I have said is we had a favorable enough look for about 3-4 weeks that 2002 shouldn't have been THAT bad.  It wasn't going to be a good winter but we should have gotten 1-2 decent snows and it would have just been a more typically blah year like so many others we forget about...not the dreg year it was wrt snowfall.  

[WxUSAF]

Wow good thing I was only 4 and there was no internet or I would have been cliff jumping in 85-86.

[North Balti Zen]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where did ya move to @North Balti Zen?

Monkton, baby! I have applied for honorary membership to north crew - exit 27 off 83 far enough north to qualify for admission?

[Jeff B]

Mappy says “no soup for you”, Zen. So close yet so far…lol

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow good thing I was only 4 and there was no internet or I would have been cliff jumping in 85-86.

Lol. I gave people nightmares a few years ago a few days before a big threat by posting a ton of h5 maps and half were hecs storms and half epic fails and you can’t tell the difference.  Unfortunately it’s way easier for a good pattern to fail than a bad one to work. And that’s why our climo is what it is. 
 

ps @WxWatcher007still owes me for that one. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Monkton, baby! I have applied for honorary membership to north crew - exit 27 off 83 far enough north to qualify for admission?

I’m pretty inclusive 

10 minutes ago, Jeff B said:

Mappy says “no soup for you”, Zen. So close yet so far…lol

Sounds like gerrymandering 

[North Balti Zen]

Can't wait to wear the new pledge beanie to the secret north crew meetings!

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. I have people nightmares a few years ago a few days before a big threat by posting a ton of h5 maps and half were hecs storms and half epic fails and you can’t tell the difference.  Unfortunately it’s way easier for a good pattern to fail than a bad one to work. And that’s why our climo is what it is. 
 

ps @WxWatcher007still owes me for that one. 

Feb 1986 was pretty good. 13” at BWI

[frd]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. I gave people nightmares a few years ago a few days before a big threat by posting a ton of h5 maps and half were hecs storms and half epic fails and you can’t tell the difference.  Unfortunately it’s way easier for a good pattern to fail than a bad one to work. And that’s why our climo is what it is. 
 

ps @WxWatcher007still owes me for that one. 

LOL!!!  I guess you sparked a little business for him back then!

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Feb 1986 was pretty good. 13” at BWI

It wasn’t AWFUL but 15.6” total (considering bwi climo was ~ 22” during that period) with that pattern would have been a let down.  It was also worse up here. Low 20s I think which is a bottom 10% snowfall winter here. Cold/dry if my memory of the records is right. Just crazy that 2000 was better wrt snowfall when the pattern was absolutely sheet 90% of that winter. 

[HighStakes]

26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Monkton, baby! I have applied for honorary membership to north crew - exit 27 off 83 far enough north to qualify for admission?

We will see how it goes after your 90 day probation period ends then We'll make a decision!

[psuhoffman]

I would love for the two waves before and during Xmas to work but their long shots. But the guidance is turning that Xmas wave into a monster 50/50 and preserving the west based block. If that’s accurate look for the period after that for a legit threat. Any legit wave would have a good chance. 

[HighStakes]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Feb 1986 was pretty good. 13” at BWI

2 decent moderate events the last week of February salvaged the winter.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It wasn’t AWFUL but 15.6” total (considering bwi climo was ~ 22” during that period) with that pattern would have been a let down.  It was also worse up here. Low 20s I think which is a bottom 10% snowfall winter here. Cold/dry if my memory of the records is right. Just crazy that 2000 was better wrt snowfall when the pattern was absolutely sheet 90% of that winter. 

There were 2 busts that were painful in January Superbowl Sunday ( Bears vs. Patriots ) was supposed to be rain changing to snow with up to 6 inches expected. The other bust was a 3-6 inches forecast and ended up with zilch.

[ldub23]

JB says the GFS is going to be very wrong

 

 

[BristowWx]

Isn’t that the Op GFS above?  Doesn’t seem prudent to use that if it is

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Isn’t that JB above?  Doesn’t seem prudent to use that if it is

Fixed 

[psuhoffman]

@WEATHER53 sorry I was snarky last night. I’ll try to be less hostile. I was thinking about how you criticize the spread of numerical guidance at range and how they are designed to show every possible solution. Well you’re right…in a way. They shouldn’t show EVERY solution but they should have spread to show every reasonably possible permutation. A model run isn’t a forecast. It’s a tool to help make a forecast. And we know we don’t have the ability to model the atmosphere at long leads completely correctly. Seeing all the possible permutations then using meteorological knowledge and skill to determine what is the most likely reality is more useful than if the guidance spit out one solution that was wrong most of the time. That would be pretty useless. So the spread is useful since we know the simulation won’t be perfect. That’s where we have to step in and figure out what’s the most likely outcome. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would love for the two waves before and during Xmas to work but their long shots. But the guidance is turning that Xmas wave into a monster 50/50 and preserving the west based block. If that’s accurate look for the period after that for a legit threat. Any legit wave would have a good chance. 

Agreed, Christmas week were weak signals but windows of opportunity, tho it isnt looking like either wave will work out for us right now. GEFS/GEPS show an extended 50/50 signature after 300 hrs all the way past the end of their range. Add in the tanking -AO forecast during that week and maybe it's gametime.

[WxUSAF]

Another great thread from @griteater

upshot:

 

[mappy]

3 hours ago, Jeff B said:

Mappy says “no soup for you”, Zen. So close yet so far…lol

Hahaha not true! He told me about the potential move before it happened, I was giving him all the details on what he could expect up here. He may not have my elevation, but his latitude will be helpful compared to the city. He’s about 10-15 min south of me, so close enough! 

[StormchaserChuck!]

At 12z, 8/25 GFS ensemble members had the 498dm Polar Vortex over SE Canada, or the NE at 384hr (12-29). 

[Ji]

Another great thread from [mention=2064]griteater[/mention]
[/url] upshot:
 

This is what psu said yesterday lol

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

At 12z, 8/25 GFS ensemble members had the 498dm Polar Vortex over SE Canada, or the NE at 384hr (12-29). 

So you are saying we just can’t know?

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Another great thread from @griteater

upshot:

 

Hmm...Is it wrong that I wish we woulda had this NOT in a nina? Lol Cause ya kinda know that even with tanking AO/NAO we'll still be fighting enso...but perhaps, as psu mentioned in his outlook, this means a still below average but not as crappy nina. But dang what we wouldn't have given for that a couple years ago!

[StormchaserChuck!]

23 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

So you are saying we just can’t know?

It's a really good signal for Arctic cold. NAO block could last into January, too, alot of the roll forward stuff from the Spring, Summer and Fall had this. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hmm...Is it wrong that I wish we woulda had this NOT in a nina? Lol Cause ya kinda know that even with tanking AO/NAO we'll still be fighting enso...but perhaps, as psu mentioned in his outlook, this means a still below average but not as crappy nina. But dang what we wouldn't have given for that a couple years ago!

La Nina is weakening, and there should be a PNA shift around Jan 15th. 

It will be hard to do -PNA with that subsurface structure in the 2nd half of Winter.  

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hmm...Is it wrong that I wish we woulda had this NOT in a nina? Lol Cause ya kinda know that even with tanking AO/NAO we'll still be fighting enso...but perhaps, as psu mentioned in his outlook, this means a still below average but not as crappy nina. But dang what we wouldn't have given for that a couple years ago!

I get what you’re saying but it’s pointless to do that to yourself. We have no control. And yes ideally we want to time up a blocking pattern with a Nino but there is a reason years like 2010 don’t happen that often. So take what you can get. If Baltimore gets like 17” this winter instead of 6” in a Nina without any blocking, take it!  Be happy. Life’s too short. And besides maybe 1996 does happen again eventually. Hope springs eternal. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

3 pink 500mb anomaly peaks, 18z GFS ensemble mean: That's 582dm ridge in northern England, to start. 2nd image hits almost+600dm as an ensemble mean average, that's top 10-15 all time (I think I found +720dm over the Arctic as the record).