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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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46 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That was 0z. 6z has a low cutting to Green Bay. Op runs day 10+ are for entertainment purposes only.

I know just posted it because it’s something fun to think about. In fact I made a post earlier about how things never go the way we thought 7 + days out.

15 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously.  

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I know just posted it because it’s something fun to think about. In fact I made a post earlier about how things never go the way we thought 7 + days out.

 

Things "kind of" go the way we think when we use the ensembles (GEPS,GEFS, EPS) and look at h5 especially looking at NA view....the op runs are often comedy and tragedy all rolled into one show past day 7

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One key to this potential event is the energy that gets left behind in the southwest around day 5-6 or so. Of course the HP positioning and confluence are major factors, but this Southwest energy helps phase and bring the low farther SE imo....last night's euro buried that energy and was purely northern stream. I don't think a N stream only event would work out yet. 

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

One key to this potential event is the energy that gets left behind in the southwest around day 5-6 or so. Of course the HP positioning and confluence are major factors, but this Southwest energy helps phase and bring the low farther SE imo....last night's euro buried that energy and was purely northern stream. I don't think a N stream only event would work out yet. 

The Euro ensemble gets the southern energy involved and has a storm.

1640044800-onTm7FlVrmg.png

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24 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

One key to this potential event is the energy that gets left behind in the southwest around day 5-6 or so. Of course the HP positioning and confluence are major factors, but this Southwest energy helps phase and bring the low farther SE imo....last night's euro buried that energy and was purely northern stream. I don't think a N stream only event would work out yet. 

That is my concern here. Nina climo says mostly N stream and the STJ wave gets shredded as it heads east. Nice mix of scenarios on the ens members. Like a few have said, not a strong signal for a major storm but certainly something we can have enjoyment tracking. 

 

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GLL needs to GTFO

It does weaken on several ens, so maybe.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not a bad set up. I would prefer something flatter/ less amped. Colder outcome and could produce a light to moderate frozen event for the MA. Having the developing -NAO and the 50-50 vortex in place can work in our favor.

1640001600-T29flckB4B4.png

1640066400-uAH4GUgPCXY.png

 

A bomb pulls in its own cold air B)

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14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sign me up from some Christmas week snow. Let's all pull together and make this one happen. 

Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously.  

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now...given the nina squash tendencies, do we like...wanna root for seeing something more amped at first to make room for said squashing? Lol

I don't think it matters what we root for lol. NS dominant with a weak/suppressed southern wave is always a viable outcome.

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3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously.  

at least give me credit for being a downer.

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9 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously.  

This makes sense...post of the year goes to Yeoman.  Hats off to you sir

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20 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously.  

See, that's the kind of can't do attitude that isn't helpful. LETS ALL PULL TOGETHER AND MAKE THIS HAPPEN

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1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously.  

Exactly right. Model watching outside of about 3-4 days is fun but nothing you pin hopes or disappointment on.

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