November 2021

[Will - Rutgers]

this will be the coldest winter of the rest of our lives

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Last 5-6 winters have been warm overall.   Last truly cold stretch was 13-14 and 14-15 combos

The last cold winter with memorable snowstorms was 10-11. While 13-14 and 14-15 were snowy, no one snowstorm really stood out. The lasting storm memory in 14-15 was the January snowstorm shifting east at the last minute. While 15-16 was one of our warmest winters on record, it also produced the heaviest snowstorm around NYC near 30”. The next year was almost as warm with 60s the day before the February blizzard. Although the 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018 came at the end of a cold streak, the warmth in February was more impressive with our first 80°. March was the snowiest on record for Long Island. So while the last 6 winters have featured above normal to record temperatures, there has been no shortage of memorable snowstorms.

[Nibor]

16 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

this will be the coldest winter of the rest of our lives

This will be the last winter until the next one.

[Eduardo]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last cold winter with memorable snowstorms was 10-11. While 13-14 and 14-15 were snowy, no one snowstorm really stood out. The lasting storm memory in 14-15 was the January snowstorm shifting east at the last minute. While 15-16 was one of our warmest winters on record, it also produced the heaviest snowstorm around NYC near 30”. The next year was almost as warm with 60s the day before the February blizzard. Although the 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018 came at the end of a cold streak, the warmth in February was more impressive with our first 80°. March was the snowiest on record for Long Island. So while the last 6 winters have featured above normal to record temperatures, there has been no shortage of memorable snowstorms.

True, but for pack-retention snobs like me, 13–14 and 14–15 were incredible.  The locked-in cold kept snow on the ground for a long time.  Would take a massive -EPO-driven winter again in a heartbeat, even if it didn't feature blockbuster storms.

[psv88]

November sucks...52 and cloudy, who needs this?

[mattinpa]

I don’t like warm Novembers, but neither do I need it to be cold - until around Thanksgiving when I start liking the cold. That GFS run posted was a real roller coaster!

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

this will be the coldest winter of the rest of our lives

That's a scary thought. 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

True, but for pack-retention snobs like me, 13–14 and 14–15 were incredible.  The locked-in cold kept snow on the ground for a long time.  Would take a massive -EPO-driven winter again in a heartbeat, even if it didn't feature blockbuster storms.

The number of snow cover days held steady as temperatures and snowfall increased. 

[Cfa]

Winter of 2020 was rather pleasant, I’d like a do over.

[donsutherland1]

The coldest weather so far this season is now overspreading the region. By the end of the week, much of the region outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely have seen one or more freezes and New York City's Central Park could see at least one sub-50° high temperature. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week.

Mount Pocono had no freeze through November 1, which assures that 2021 will record the latest first freeze on record there, either this evening or tomorrow morning. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920.

The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +5.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.532 today.

On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.624 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If November turns out to be another above normal month, this will be one of the warmest met falls (Sept - Nov) in history 

Sounds like rocket fuel for another 30-40"+ snowstorm nearby. 

All you need is a favorable blocking interval which I think is likely this season and boom. 

[kat5hurricane]

57 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

True, but for pack-retention snobs like me, 13–14 and 14–15 were incredible.  The locked-in cold kept snow on the ground for a long time.  Would take a massive -EPO-driven winter again in a heartbeat, even if it didn't feature blockbuster storms.

I was just about to say this. For me (and snowpack retention snobs like you said), '13-'14 and '14-'15 were more memorable than, say, '05-'06 and '15-'16 which had a blockbuster storm each but was pretty much a nothing burger otherwise which was basically a 2 day winter as opposed to the 5-6 week winters of the previously mentioned years with no really memorable individual storms but an unforgettable extended winter with long lasting snowpack and consistent pack refresher moderate snowstorms.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

I don’t like warm Novembers, but neither do I need it to be cold - until around Thanksgiving when I start liking the cold. That GFS run posted was a real roller coaster!

The EPS has a back and forth pattern also. Cool down this week followed by warm up next week. Another potential cool down showing up for the third week of November.

12z Nov 17th

 

[George001]

Will November likely be a warm month? Based on what I see on the models, yes. November will likely end up several degrees above average, with not one flake of snow. However, that does not mean that this won’t be a big winter. In my winter forecast, I forecasted a very warm November due to the strengthening of the polar vortex and consolidation over the North Pole. I do expect this warm pattern to continue into the first half of December.

However, by late November the polar vortex is expected to weaken significantly. There is a lag, which is why I expect the pattern change to be week 3 in December, with the potential for a severe blizzard the last week of December. Although the pattern will likely change in December, I do expect even December to average warmer than normal, but only 1 to 2 degrees warmer than normal. Where shit is going to really get wild is January, when the effects of the polar vortex event we are expected to experience in December are well underway. January is going to be our big month, with 2-4 severe blizzards from NYC north (not all will be a direct hit, someone will probably get screwed). In NYC, my forecast is this

Dec-
temp +1 to +2

snow 10-15 in

Jan-

temp -4 to -3

snow 25-30 in

Feb-

temp +4 to +5

snow 0-3 in

Mar-

temp -2 to -1

snow 10-12 in

Total- 45-60 inches

 

A warm snowless November is not the end of the world when it comes to our chances for winter. In 2014-2015, my area (Boston) pretty much punted the entire first half of winter and we ended up with 110 inches of snow. Trust the process, I’d rather be staring down a shitty October and November with a weak polar vortex expected than vice versa. 

[lee59]

Central Park Weather station gets honor. Maybe some landscaping is also in order.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202110311046-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Central Park Weather station gets honor. Maybe some landscaping is also in order.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202110311046-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

shows how out of touch they are...

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The coldest weather so far this season is now overspreading the region. By the end of the week, much of the region outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely have seen one or more freezes and New York City's Central Park could see at least one sub-50° high temperature. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week.

Mount Pocono had no freeze through November 1, which assures that 2021 will record the latest first freeze on record there, either this evening or tomorrow morning. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920.

The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +5.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.532 today.

On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.624 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

 

Don since NYC should see at least one sub 50 high, does that also mean we're likely to see at least one low temp in the 30s too?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

November sucks...52 and cloudy, who needs this?

the only worse weather I can imagine is 33 and rain 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last cold winter with memorable snowstorms was 10-11. While 13-14 and 14-15 were snowy, no one snowstorm really stood out. The lasting storm memory in 14-15 was the January snowstorm shifting east at the last minute. While 15-16 was one of our warmest winters on record, it also produced the heaviest snowstorm around NYC near 30”. The next year was almost as warm with 60s the day before the February blizzard. Although the 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018 came at the end of a cold streak, the warmth in February was more impressive with our first 80°. March was the snowiest on record for Long Island. So while the last 6 winters have featured above normal to record temperatures, there has been no shortage of memorable snowstorms.

February and March in 2015 were really good though

 

[dmillz25]

Down to 40 here

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 35 here which is the overnight low.

Edit: The overnight low actually made it down to 33 this morning.

[Tatamy]

32 out here.  Growing season is done.

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don since NYC should see at least one sub 50 high, does that also mean we're likely to see at least one low temp in the 30s too?

 

Yes. Tonight or tomorrow night could see the first upper 30s there.

MPO also recorded its first freeze yesterday. The old record latest first freeze was November 1, 1920.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 51°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 58.2°; 15-Year: 58.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 59.5°; 15-Year: 59.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 60.4°

Mainly fair and cool weather will continue through the week.

[dmillz25]

41 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Down to 40 here

39 here in bed stuy so first 30s at least here

[STORMANLI]

33°

Frozen Dew and Frost

First of season and certainly one of the latest I can recall.

[bluewave]

This is the 2nd latest first 30s at Islip.

 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1971	05-05 (1971)	39	11-04 (1971)	39	182
2017	05-04 (2017)	39	11-01 (2017)	36	180
2011	05-06 (2011)	38	10-28 (2011)	37	174
1967	05-09 (1967)	38	10-26 (1967)	38	169

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.(46/57), or Normal.      Gonna be AN into mid-Nov. on the next 8.      Storms miss to east Nov. 5th. & 7th.     A  miss to the west 'somewhat' Nov. 12-15?

Was 54/55 for most of day yesterday.

Today:  51-53, wind nw. and breezy, m. sunny.     40 tomorrow AM.

44*(67%RH) here at 6am.     43* at 7am.       49* at Noon.      52* at 2pm.       Reached 54* at 4pm.         47* at 11pm.

 

[lee59]

My car, in an open area, has ice on the roof. My temperature is in the mid 30s. The grass is just wet. 

[bluewave]

POU finally ends its longest above freezing streak at 210 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature > 32 
for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2021-11-02
1	210	2021-04-07 through 2021-11-02
2	197	1942-04-15 through 1942-10-28
3	194	1971-04-25 through 1971-11-04
4	190	2007-04-22 through 2007-10-28
-	190	1975-04-23 through 1975-10-29
5	183	1990-04-20 through 1990-10-19
6	178	2016-04-16 through 2016-10-10
-	178	1946-04-19 through 1946-10-13
-	178	1944-04-20 through 1944-10-14
7	177	2018-04-24 through 2018-10-17