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I've no skill in LR forecasting but the late start to the FALL frost-freeze season,  NAEFS, and modeling through the 10th suggests we should be closer to normal this November than the positive departure we'll end up with in October.  

So when will the first snow accumulate I95 northwestward, then in NYC? 

Can we muster one more tropical RH contributor to the NYC subforum?

Edited body at 742AM-Nov 2, to add the October 2021 CP +4.1F departure from normal, to use as comparison for NOV 2021 departure from normal.

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Just for the record and not a separate thread yet: The operational GFS has been forecasting measurable accumulative snow to near I95 sometime between the 3rd and 8th of November for the following cycles. 18z/23, 00z and 06z/25, 12z/26 and now 18z/27. Am monitoring for a possible thread occurrence between the 5th and 8th but no confidence yet. 

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The record warmth in September and October matched our recent delayed fall pattern. This endless summer pattern is reflected in the large September and October temperature increase in the new 1991-2020 climate normals. But the November temperature increase has been smaller. Several Novembers over the last decade were the only cooler departure months of fall. So it’s possible that November may have a smaller warm departure than September and October or a negative departure. Still too early to guess what the actual November temperature departures will be. This is the first fully coupled La Niña November since 2017 and 2016. November 2017 went -0.3 and 2016 finished at +2.3 in the NY Coastal climate division of the NYC five boroughs and Long Island.

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

 

 

 

Fall monthly temperature departures in the 5 boroughs of NYC and Long Island

September departures 

202109 69.2°F 122 3.4°F
202009 66.9°F 99 1.1°F
201909 67.4°F 107 1.6°F
201809 69.6°F 124 3.8°F
201709 68.6°F 118 2.8°F
201609 69.4°F 123 3.6°F
201509 70.8°F 126 5.0°F
201409 67.4°F 107 1.6°F
201309 64.4°F 41 -1.4°F
201209 66.7°F 97 0.9°F
201109 68.7°F 119 2.9°F
201009 68.8°F 121 3.0°F


October

 

202010 57.0°F 104 2.0°F
201910 58.0°F 115 3.0°F
201810 56.5°F 94 1.5°F
201710 62.0°F 126 7.0°F
201610 57.6°F 110 2.6°F
201510 55.5°F 76 0.5°F
201410 57.8°F 112 2.8°F
201310 57.5°F 108 2.5°F
201210 57.9°F 113 2.9°F
201110 56.6°F 97 1.6°F
201010 56.4°F 92 1.4°F


November

 

202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F
201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F
201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F
201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F
201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F
201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F
201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F
201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F
201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F
201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F
201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F

 

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record warmth in September and October matched our recent delayed fall pattern. This endless summer pattern is reflected in the large September and October temperature increase in the new 1991-2020 climate normals. But the November temperature increase has been smaller. Several Novembers over the last decade were the only cooler departure months of fall. So it’s possible that November may have a smaller warm departure than September and October or a negative departure. Still too early to guess what the actual November temperature departures will be. This is the first fully coupled La Niña November since 2017 and 2016. November 2017 went -0.3 and 2016 finished at +2.3 in the NY Coastal climate division of the NYC five boroughs and Long Island.

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

 

 

 

Fall monthly temperature departures in the 5 boroughs of NYC and Long Island

September departures 

202109 69.2°F 122 3.4°F
202009 66.9°F 99 1.1°F
201909 67.4°F 107 1.6°F
201809 69.6°F 124 3.8°F
201709 68.6°F 118 2.8°F
201609 69.4°F 123 3.6°F
201509 70.8°F 126 5.0°F
201409 67.4°F 107 1.6°F
201309 64.4°F 41 -1.4°F
201209 66.7°F 97 0.9°F
201109 68.7°F 119 2.9°F
201009 68.8°F 121 3.0°F


October

 

202010 57.0°F 104 2.0°F
201910 58.0°F 115 3.0°F
201810 56.5°F 94 1.5°F
201710 62.0°F 126 7.0°F
201610 57.6°F 110 2.6°F
201510 55.5°F 76 0.5°F
201410 57.8°F 112 2.8°F
201310 57.5°F 108 2.5°F
201210 57.9°F 113 2.9°F
201110 56.6°F 97 1.6°F
201010 56.4°F 92 1.4°F


November

 

202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F
201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F
201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F
201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F
201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F
201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F
201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F
201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F
201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F
201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F
201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F

 

I like this climate compare post.  What i also see in Nov data are the variable outcomes...many-many more neg departures than either Sept-Oct.  Yet, as you note, confidence on whether we'll actually end up with a negative departure in Nov has to be minimal... just don't know, at least not using these data alone.

The warming climate change in Sept, Oct, Dec,Jan, July is noted. Thank you.  

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewaveOnce again, the models are correcting to the WAR as we get closer to the beginning of November. What once appeared “cold” in the long range isn’t so cold anymore

Works for me. Been saving a lot of money on heating bills. As long as it's below 70 in November then I'm fine. 

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some issues with a "cold" November

1.  Canada remains warm in a relative sense.

2. Record warm SST's east of us.   Even if Canada were cold, the cold would tend to be not the hit and hold type given the warm waters.  We've seen this in past years.

3.  Stronger WAR given the warm SST's.  Positive feedback cycle.   This will keep coldest departures to our west most likely.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

some issues with a "cold" November

1.  Canada remains warm in a relative sense.

2. Record warm SST's east of us.   Even if Canada were cold, the cold would tend to be not the hit and hold type given the warm waters.  We've seen this in past years.

3.  Stronger WAR given the warm SST's.  Positive feedback cycle.   This will keep coldest departures to our west most likely.

I think the cold will wait till later November. Meanwhile many are preaching about a cold November.

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

some issues with a "cold" November

1.  Canada remains warm in a relative sense.

2. Record warm SST's east of us.   Even if Canada were cold, the cold would tend to be not the hit and hold type given the warm waters.  We've seen this in past years.

3.  Stronger WAR given the warm SST's.  Positive feedback cycle.   This will keep coldest departures to our west most likely.

Those SSTs along and off the east coast aren’t just warm, they are record warm. They are going to feedback into the WAR and SE ridge. Also, unlike last year, we have a very well coupled and strengthening La Niña, along with a strong -PDO and -PMM. Any +PNA is not going to sustain itself like last year, any PNA spike is going to be transient 

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those SSTs along and off the east coast aren’t just warm, they are record warm. They are going to feedback into the WAR and SE ridge. Also, unlike last year, we have a very well coupled and strengthening La Niña, along with a strong -PDO and -PMM. Any +PNA is not going to sustain itself like last year, any PNA spike is going to be transient 

Is it  winter yet ? Good thing this is happening in October.

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16 hours ago, wdrag said:

I've no skill in LR forecasting but the late start to the FALL frost-freeze season,  NAEFS, and modeling through the 10th suggests we should be closer to normal this November than the positive departure we'll end up with in October.  

So when will the first snow accumulate I95 northwestward, then in NYC? 

Can we muster one more tropical RH contributor to the NYC subforum?

I think we will get at least one tropical-moisture influenced storm and/or hybrid in the northeast US between Nov 4 and 12.   

Signal on ensembles is moderate but growing for something subtropical/hybrid to form in the GOM or off SE Coast and move up the east coast between Nov 8 and 12.  Also a signal for late-forming secondary low tracking from VA Capes to NE US to late on Nov 4 to Nov 6 with perhaps cold enough air for some snow in the interior.

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 the last few model cycles look to bring in some pretty cold air next week.  1st cold front Monday  with slightly below normal temps the next one around the 4th or 5th looks pretty impressive  could be negative 10 to 15  departures.  Maybe 1st freeze for many areas away from the coast. Let's see if it holds

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Is it  winter yet ? Good thing this is happening in October.

He doesn’t understand the effects a easterly QBO can have on the stratosphere. Being primarily focused on the ENSO state and PDO is bad forecasting.  We’ll have good chances at periodic blocking this year.  Some extreme -NAO situations are possible. 

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28 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

He doesn’t understand the effects a easterly QBO can have on the stratosphere. Being primarily focused on the ENSO state and PDO is bad forecasting.  We’ll have good chances at periodic blocking this year.  Some extreme -NAO situations are possible. 

You have no idea what you’re even talking about, literally none. 11-12 was -QBO also

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Extended EPS has a colder than average first week of November. But the coldest departures are centered to our west. The week two forecast has departures rising back closer to normal.

 

Nov 1-8

EC0FED7C-77AD-4DE5-A857-C9161466B661.thumb.png.7f60b68a71a28d487d2d9816ea1b6c88.png

 

Nov 8-15

A9BB68D2-06D5-4DFA-835A-7AA972645944.thumb.png.f9077b25302b8ecb76be088da756d099.png


 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Extended EPS has a colder than average first week of November. But the coldest departures are centered to our west. The week two forecast has departures rising back closer to normal.

 

Nov 1-8

EC0FED7C-77AD-4DE5-A857-C9161466B661.thumb.png.7f60b68a71a28d487d2d9816ea1b6c88.png

 

Nov 8-15

A9BB68D2-06D5-4DFA-835A-7AA972645944.thumb.png.f9077b25302b8ecb76be088da756d099.png


 

Once again, courtesy of the WAR, the cold can only progress so far east. Deja Vu of the last few years….the models are way too cold in the extended only to correct warmer the closer we get 

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6 hours ago, jconsor said:

I think we will get at least one tropical-moisture influenced storm and/or hybrid in the northeast US between Nov 4 and 12.   

Signal on ensembles is moderate but growing for something subtropical/hybrid to form in the GOM or off SE Coast and move up the east coast between Nov 8 and 12.  Also a signal for late-forming secondary low tracking from VA Capes to NE US to late on Nov 4 to Nov 6 with perhaps cold enough air for some snow in the interior.

Gfs shows that 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Extended EPS has a colder than average first week of November. But the coldest departures are centered to our west. The week two forecast has departures rising back closer to normal.

 

Nov 1-8

EC0FED7C-77AD-4DE5-A857-C9161466B661.thumb.png.7f60b68a71a28d487d2d9816ea1b6c88.png

 

Nov 8-15

A9BB68D2-06D5-4DFA-835A-7AA972645944.thumb.png.f9077b25302b8ecb76be088da756d099.png


 

I would hedge warmer than normal for November

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Goodbye for the 60's after Sunday.       They try to return by mid-month however, on many members.        We will be lucky if the lower heights can push passed us and into the Atlantic by  Nov. 3rd.         Nov. 07 looks like the bottom, and in Albany wet snow may occur then.

1635422400-jVu5heInvy8.png

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7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You have no idea what you’re even talking about, literally none. 11-12 was -QBO also

Oh I do. How about the strong  La Niña of 2010-2011 with a strong -PDO?  The atmospheric blocking overwhelmed the pattern most of that winter.  You disappear all year long and start posting every fall  being a troll.   There’s a reason why you’re limited to 5 posts per day.  You do absolutely nothing to contribute to this board. Sorry Mods I speak the truth.

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6 hours ago, Neblizzard said:

Oh I do. How about the strong  La Niña of 2010-2011 with a strong -PDO?  The atmospheric blocking overwhelmed the pattern most of that winter.  You disappear all year long and start posting every fall  being a troll.   There’s a reason why you’re limited to 5 posts per day.  You do absolutely nothing to contribute to this board. Sorry Mods I speak the truth.

No, you really don’t lol and 10-11 was a 1st year Niña coming off a Niño and it was +QBO lol 

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No, you really don’t lol and 10-11 was a 1st year Niña coming off a Niño and it was +QBO lol 

Where did I say it was a -QBO in 2010-2011? Let’s get those 5 posts in quickly today. 

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When we have a coupled La Niña like this year, the November NAO phase usually carries over to the winter. This worked out for every coupled La Niña since 1999. All the neutral or negative NAO Novembers had winter -NAO and -AO intervals with normal to above normal snows. 

NAO during coupled  La Niña Novembers and winter  blocking and snowfall

2017…0.00 neutral….Winter blocking intervals snowy

2016…-0.16……………..Winter blocking intervals snowy

2011….+1.36…………….Near record low winter snowfall

2010…..-1.62……………Strong winter blocking and snowy

2008…..-0.32…………..Near normal snowfall

2007…..+0.58…………..Below normal snowfall 

2005…..-0.31……………Winter blocking intervals snowy

2000…..-0.92…………..Winter blocking intervals snowy

1999……+0.65…………Less winter blocking below normal snowfall 

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