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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The GFS still is having those skill drop outs at day 5 and beyond which puts it in last place. The Euro scores increased with upgrade. So the Euro hasn’t missed any storms to suppression since the upgrade. Hopefully, this continues through the winter.

 

BE8B5624-E5BF-46FF-8D4A-D51A06F7E035.thumb.jpeg.a80e38001dbec6bc06be47b8eff0c952.jpeg

 

Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI.

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22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI.

The Euro, CMC, and GFS  were similar with the track SE of MTP last Saturday and Sunday. But the Euro had the 0z run on Monday which tucked 80 miles too far west. It quickly came back to the consensus on the 12z run Monday. So one over amped run in a series of good runs isn’t that big of a deal.  The main problem with its coastal storm tracks in recent years has been suppression at times. Maybe an occasional over amped run in a series of good runs  means that the issue was corrected. 

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21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI.

Euro EPS or Euro OP?

The EPS was very threatening with big goodyear tire circulation centered s of LI....far in advance. If we're talking OP... i don't remember details, EXCEPT,  Tuesday morning I think that low was crossing sw LI near JFK... I do know there was a circulation there. 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro, CMC, and GFS  were similar with the track SE of MTP last Saturday and Sunday. But the Euro had the 0z run on Monday which tucked 80 miles too far west. It quickly came back to the consensus on the 12z run Monday. So one over amped run in a series of good runs isn’t that big of a deal.  The main problem with its coastal storm tracks in recent years has been suppression at times. Maybe an occasional over amped run in a series of good runs  means that the issue was corrected. 

6z 36 hrs out

D2FB214F-88DE-41D0-A612-80561BB73E74.jpeg

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro, CMC, and GFS  were similar with the track SE of MTP last Saturday and Sunday. But the Euro had the 0z run on Monday which tucked 80 miles too far west. It quickly came back to the consensus on the 12z run Monday. So one over amped run in a series of good runs isn’t that big of a deal.  The main problem with its coastal storm tracks in recent years has been suppression at times. Maybe an occasional over amped run in a series of good runs  means that the issue was corrected. 

Main issue has been too amped and west for many years now

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4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Main issue has been too amped and west for many years now

It had numerous big snows too far south like the day before the January 2016 blizzard. Also It had to come NW in the short term with the early February 2021 follow up storm.

 

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I’m just surprised. It was calm all day and there was no weather like this forecasted. First gust really caught me off guard. It’s funny (and typical) because it’s pretty gusty and I got these idiots in my neighborhood blowing off fireworks. 

Yup blew through here too. Nasty 

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I expect November to be yet another above normal month, nothing like October was, which was ridiculously warm, but something like a +1 - +2 AN month would not surprise me. After this week, we mild right back up again. You still have the troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO)….you aren’t going to get cold with that look

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00z/1 EPS on the 5th-6th has trended weaker and further east as a possible grazer while the GEFS is positive tilt as previously 24 hours ago but continues much more interested in the 8th-9th (now extended into the 10th).  

Am surprised EPS has nothing signaled for the 8th-10th. 

Therefore, no consensus on either set of paired dates except 5th-6th per the 500MB patterns looks positive tilt and weaker than previously indicated (grazer) while 8th-10th-no EPS-GEFS consensus. 

 

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8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

00z/1 EPS on the 5th-6th has trended weaker and further east as a possible grazer while the GEFS is positive tilt as previously 24 hours ago but continues much more interested in the 8th-9th (now extended into the 10th).  

Am surprised EPS has nothing signaled for the 8th-10th. 

Therefore, no consensus on either set of paired dates except 5th-6th per the 500MB patterns looks positive tilt and weaker than previously indicated (grazer) while 8th-10th-no EPS-GEFS consensus. 

 

Let the winter model fun begin. This sounds a bit familiar to what we went thru leading up to last weeks coastal storms.

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October ended at  62.0[+4.1], 5th Place.      Rain was 5.26", about 1" AN.

The first 8 days of November are averaging   50degs.(46/54), or -1.

Back to the 60's by mid-month?     The GFS with 9 straight 60's----"Nice Winter We Are Not Having".......stan laurel.

Reached 66* here yesterday.

Today:  60-63, wind w., breezy, m. sunny, 47 by tomorrow AM.

53*(82%RH) here at 6am.      55* at 9am.       57* at 10am.      58* at Noon.       59* at 3pm.      Reached 61* at 4pm.

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and cooler. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°
Newark: 63°
Philadelphia: 61°

Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler.

Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 58.9°; 15-Year: 59.0°
Newark: 30-Year: 60.2°; 15-Year: 60.6°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.2°

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 67.3°
Average temperature: 67.8°
Average error: 1.3°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 71.8°
Average temperature: 72.4°
Average error: 1.3°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 71.4°
Average temperature: 71.6°
Average error: 1.5°

 

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23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I do think mid November (or even earlier) will be mild but I also see that being transient.

I think the last third will turn cooler and that will go along with the expected blocking in December.

As long as you have troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO), you aren’t getting arctic cold. That has to change. All -NAO/-AO would do is bring down PAC maritime junk air in that setup. I think we end up with yet another above normal month 

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in the winter time after a winter storm there is usually another storm in the forecast...I can remember that going back to the March 1960 storm...most of the time the storm never came or was minor...The video of the 1967 blizzard on you tube says another storm is on the horizen...that turned out to be a 2" event...

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