November 2021

[Intensewind002]

We went down to 30 here in Albany, but it was pretty cold back home on long island too with a low of 36 imby

[bluewave]

Record lake effect snows with the warmest  lake temperatures for so late in the season.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
0234 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2021

...RECORD DAILY NOVEMBER MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT THE GAYLORD WEATHER 
FORECAST OFFICE...

11.7 INCHES BREAKS THE ALL TIME NOVEMBER DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD OF 
10.7 INCHES SET BACK ON NOVEMBER 18TH, 2014.

THIS IS ALSO THE 6TH HIGHEST ONE DAY TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE GAYLORD 
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN BACK IN 1998.

 

 

[Rtd208]

The overnight low actually made it down to 33 this morning which I edited in my previous post.

[ForestHillWx]

I saw 32 at 7:00 a.m., some decent frost on the field across the street and my yard/garden 

[CIK62]

We are headed for a 9-day period of 57degs.(51/63), or +8.      Nov. 08-16

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

2015-2016 was even more extreme at LGA. It was their only first freeze of the season to occur in January. Then it was followed by their biggest snowstorm on record.

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2001	03-28 (2001)	31	12-23 (2001)	32	269
1998	03-22 (1998)	31	12-22 (1998)	24	274
2011	03-29 (2011)	32	12-11 (2011)	31	256
1948	04-10 (1948)	32	12-11 (1948)	32	244

 

Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2021-11-02
1	28.2	2016-01-25	0
-	28.2	2016-01-24	0
	27.9	2016-01-23	0
2	25.4	2006-02-13	0
-	25.4	2006-02-12	0
3	24.2	1996-01-09	0
	23.8	1996-01-08	0
	23.3	2006-02-14	0
4	22.8	1947-12-28	0
-	22.8	1947-12-27	0

was JFK similar in that respect?

 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

hard freeze Don? I think thats defined as 4 hours below 28 if I'm not mistaken?

 

It’s defined as a “few” hours at or below 28. MPO had a hard freeze.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

was JFK similar in that respect?

 

The latest first freeze at JFK was in 1983.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1983	03-30 (1983)	31	12-17 (1983)	31	261
1998	03-25 (1998)	31	12-14 (1998)	31	263
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	31	242
2009	03-25 (2009)	31	12-07 (2009)	31	256
2006	04-05 (2006)	32	12-04 (2006)	31	242
1985	04-10 (1985)	29	12-02 (1985)	30	235
1975	04-07 (1975)	30	12-02 (1975)	32	238

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s defined as a “few” hours at or below 28. MPO had a hard freeze.

it actually looks like snow fell there, thats a big wow, the heavy frost was still around at 10 am!

 

think JFK and vicinity gets at least a frost tonight?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The latest first freeze at JFK was in 1983.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1983	03-30 (1983)	31	12-17 (1983)	31	261
1998	03-25 (1998)	31	12-14 (1998)	31	263
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	31	242
2009	03-25 (2009)	31	12-07 (2009)	31	256
2006	04-05 (2006)	32	12-04 (2006)	31	242
1985	04-10 (1985)	29	12-02 (1985)	30	235
1975	04-07 (1975)	30	12-02 (1975)	32	238

figures it was 1983 that was one of my dream summers and falls lol.

 

also a la nina and an amazingly cold winter we even got to 0 in December didn't we? so we went from first 32 to 0 in the same month?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The latest first freeze at JFK was in 1983.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1983	03-30 (1983)	31	12-17 (1983)	31	261
1998	03-25 (1998)	31	12-14 (1998)	31	263
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	31	242
2009	03-25 (2009)	31	12-07 (2009)	31	256
2006	04-05 (2006)	32	12-04 (2006)	31	242
1985	04-10 (1985)	29	12-02 (1985)	30	235
1975	04-07 (1975)	30	12-02 (1975)	32	238

wow 2009's was really late too, 12-07? and look what a winter we had!

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 2009's was really late too, 12-07? and look what a winter we had!

 

That’s one of the ways last winter was more like an El Niño. Snowy season following one of the warmest Novembers on record like 2009. We just had to wait until January for our record El Niño snows in 2015-2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1975	52.7	0
2	2015	52.5	0
3	2009	51.0	0
-	2001	51.0	0
4	2020	50.9	0
-	1994	50.9	0
5	2011	50.8	0
-	2006	50.8	0
6	1948	50.7	0
7	2016	50.6	0
8	1982	50.4	0
9	1985	50.1	0

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it actually looks like snow fell there, thats a big wow, the heavy frost was still around at 10 am!

 

think JFK and vicinity gets at least a frost tonight?

 

Probably not. The temperature there will probably be a bit too high.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably not. The temperature there will probably be a bit too high.

I noticed southern nassau and NYC are the only parts of the area not under a frost advisory

 

[MJO812]

[lee59]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I noticed southern nassau and NYC are the only parts of the area not under a frost advisory

 

I am not in the frost advisory for tonight but we will probably have plenty. I had frost last night.

[lee59]

How is this for a snowy forecast:

 

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days

[donsutherland1]

An unseasonably cool air mass now covers the region.tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest morning so far in much of the region. Even Central Park will likely see the temperature dip below 40° for the first time this season. Temperatures will run well below normal through the rest of the week. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week.

Mount Pocono recorded its latest first freeze on record yesterday. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920.

The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +11.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.422 today.

On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.480 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.610 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An unseasonably cool air mass now covers the region.tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest morning so far in much of the region. Even Central Park will likely see the temperature dip below 40° for the first time this season. Temperatures will run well below normal through the rest of the week. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week.

Mount Pocono recorded its latest first freeze on record yesterday. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920.

The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +11.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.422 today.

On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.480 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.610 (RMM).

 

Don do you have a projection for first freeze for NYC, JFK, LGA, etc?

Thanksgiving?

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How is this for a snowy forecast:

 

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days

I saw a forecast for like 150 inches of snow LOL

and these places are near sea level?

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

that dog measures snow better than most people, at least it knows not to use the ruler upside down

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw a forecast for like 150 inches of snow LOL

and these places are near sea level?

 

That’s what it took to finally erase the persistent warm blob south of Alaska.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That’s what it took to finally erase the persistent warm blob south of Alaska.

 

with all that rain the Portage Glacier will melt

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

How is this for a snowy forecast:

 

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/113-straight-hours-and-27-inches-later-the-rain-finally-stopped-in-alaska

[Allsnow]

Eps really hinting at some cold weather coming mid month after a brief warm up

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps really hinting at some cold weather coming mid month after a brief warm up

That’s the kind of week 2 cold signal that could lead to a cold departure November if the late month blocking pattern  comes to fruition. 
 

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, jconsor said:

I agree that the ECMWF is likely too amped and it will be tough to get significant precipitation as far west as the immediate NYC metro... however would not dismiss a high wind threat for E LI with ensembles trending  toward more consolidated system with better phasing.  Also, closely watching coastal flood threat for NJ shore and LI (astro. high tides peak 11/5-7 due to perigee as well as new moon). 

Of course, the larger risks for those threats are along the SE coast from N. FL to NC Outer Banks and in SE New England.

I'll check again tomorrow morning early on on theb7th-8th...  meanwhile something sizable in the 13-16time frame.  Expanded the window one day for two events. Nice 18z/3 GFS op totals of 1-3, iso 4+.  still way early. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/113-straight-hours-and-27-inches-later-the-rain-finally-stopped-in-alaska

So what happened, the forecast was for feet of snow and instead they got feet of rain? If so, that would have made some snow lovers pretty upset.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

So what happened, the forecast was for feet of snow and instead they got feet of rain? If so, that would have made some snow lovers pretty upset.

Lol.  It's just the lower elevations saw a ton of rain.  Other areas saw/ are seeing a ton of snow. 

[lee59]

Big range in temperatures on these clear, cold nights with no wind. Nearby airports still in the mid 40s, while local stations, such as mine, already dropping into the 30s. Muttontown in northern Nassau, already in the mid 30s.