Cfa Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 LGA made into January without a freeze a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EpicJolee Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, Cfa said: LGA made into January without a freeze a few years ago. What about Central Park? Also, if there is a special topic for that type of things here (specially for NYC) please send it to me. Thank U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, EpicJolee said: What about Central Park? Also, if there is a special topic for that type of things here (specially for NYC) please send it to me. Thank U Central Park is weird currently, buried under a canopy of shrubs and trees. I don't see how anyone can take the measurements from there seriously. You are probably better served using the Upper West Side site from the AMNH, there is actually a real person there who takes the data and the place has been there for more than a century, so the environment is pretty stable, in contrast to Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 49 minutes ago, EpicJolee said: What about Central Park? Also, if there is a special topic for that type of things here (specially for NYC) please send it to me. Thank U December 22 http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2021/10/21/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Interesting tweet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Nice long range pattern on the gfs. Negative NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 I see two events coming in an 84-96 hour period between the 12th-15th. First one is the larger rain event of 3/4-2.5" on Friday. The second for now as a CFP with a period of showery precip late Sunday or early Monday. The first high amplitude 500MB trough lifts northeastward and weakens across us, but plenty of jet, so it won't surprise with iso SVR Friday but for now, indicators are mediocre. The second short wave looks pretty strong for next Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 70° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.2° Newark: 30-Year: 57.3°; 15-Year: 57.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.2° Temperatures will average above to much above normal through much of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(47/58), or +4. Month to date is 48.0[-3.4]. Should be about 50.0[+0.3] by the 17th. Reached 66 here yesterday. Today: 65-68, wind w., m. sunny. 1" of rain Fri./Sat.---then highs 45-49 starting Sun. 53*(68%RH) here at 6am. 57* at 9am. 60* at 11:30am. 61* at Noon. 66* at 2pm. 68* at 2:30pm. 70* at 3pm. Reached 71* near 4pm. For the record---1 Year Ago: 2020-11-04 62 40 51.0 -0.6 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-05 67 52 59.5 8.2 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-06 70 56 63.0 12.0 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-07 74 56 65.0 14.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-08 75 56 65.5 15.2 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-09 75 54 64.5 14.5 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-10 74 60 67.0 17.3 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-11 72 64 68.0 18.6 0 3 0.78 0.0 0 2020-11-12 68 46 57.0 7.9 8 0 0.24 0.0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 The NAO is currently negative and is forecast to go positive for a time in mid-November. Long range EPS and GEFS have it gong negative again later in the month. The phase of the November NAO for the last 10 out of 11 coupled La Ninas has correctly predicted the NYC seasonal snowfall and winter temperatures. The snowiest and coldest La Ninas had a November NAO under -1 for 1995 and 2010. At this point, the -NAO doesn’t look like it will be that negative. The least snowiest and warmest 2011 had the November NAO above +1. So this November isn’t showing such a positive NAO. If we can maintain a neutral to even slightly negative NAO for the whole month, then NYC will have a reasonable chance of reaching 25” or more of snow this coming season. Winter temperatures could average near to above normal following a NAO in that November range. The new 1991-2020 winter average temperature in NYC has risen to 36.2° from 35.1° for the 1981-2010 period. So this could make it easier for NYC to come closer to normal or have a less warm departure than it would have been using the older averages. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table November coupled La Niña NAO and NYC seasonal snowfall and DJF average temperature Season………..Nov NAO……Snowfall….Temperature 2017-2018…..0.00….40.9”….36.2° 2016-2017…..-0.16….30.2”….39.3° 2011-2012…..+1.36….7.4”…..40.5° 2010-2011…..-1.62…..51.4”….32.8° 2008-2009…..-0.32…27.6”….34.2° 2007-2008…..+0.58…11.9”….36.4° 2005-2006…..-0.31….40.0”….37.3° 2000-2001…..-0.92….35.0”…..33.5° 1999-2000…..+0.65….16.3”….36.2° 1998-1999……-0.28….12.7”….38.6° 1995-1996…….-1.38….75.6”….32.2° 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 50 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Had my 7th straight night below 40 last night with a low of 37.1. Beautiful daytime highs with 67 yesterday and maybe higher today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Big diurnal swing days. Hit 37F this morning and should see 70F today. Lack of rain and full sunshine means temps could easily over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 45 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The NAO is currently negative and is forecast to go positive for a time in mid-November. Long range EPS and GEFS have it gong negative again later in the month. The phase of the November NAO for the last 10 out of 11 coupled La Ninas has correctly predicted the NYC seasonal snowfall and winter temperatures. The snowiest and coldest La Ninas had a November NAO under -1 for 1995 and 2010. At this point, the -NAO doesn’t look like it will be that negative. The least snowiest and warmest 2011 had the November NAO above +1. So this November isn’t showing such a positive NAO. If we can maintain a neutral to even slightly negative NAO for the whole month, then NYC will have a reasonable chance of reaching 25” or more of snow this coming season. Winter temperatures could average near to above normal following a NAO in that November range. The new 1991-2020 winter average temperature in NYC has risen to 36.2° from 35.1° for the 1981-2010 period. So this could make it easier for NYC to come closer to normal or have a less warm departure than it would have been using the older averages. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table November coupled La Niña NAO and NYC seasonal snowfall and DJF average temperature Season………..Nov NAO……Snowfall….Temperature 2017-2018…..0.00….40.9”….36.2° 2016-2017…..-0.16….30.2”….39.3° 2011-2012…..+1.36….7.4”…..40.5° 2010-2011…..-1.62…..51.4”….32.8° 2008-2009…..-0.32…27.6”….34.2° 2007-2008…..+0.58…11.9”….36.4° 2005-2006…..-0.31….40.0”….37.3° 2000-2001…..-0.92….35.0”…..33.5° 1999-2000…..+0.65….16.3”….36.2° 1998-1999……-0.28….12.7”….38.6° 1995-1996…….-1.38….75.6”….32.2° Plenty of solid years in that bunch and this is yet another factor that leads me to believe this won't be a total shutout. Niña's scare me, but we'll avoid a ratter so long as the Niña remains tempered and we manage to get some blocky periods. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 The next 30 days, EURO style. Similar for the 30 days leading up to Christmas---which could be colder but have the same general look as this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 15 hours ago, EpicJolee said: What about Central Park? Also, if there is a special topic for that type of things here (specially for NYC) please send it to me. Thank U first and last freeze dates in Central Park... season....first.freeze....last.freeze.. 1876-77.......10/15.......4/08 1877-78.......11/07.......3/26 1878-79.......11/05.......4/06 1879-80.......10/25.......4/12 1880-81.......11/18.......4/07 1881-82.......11/22.......4/12 1882-83.......11/03.......4/03 1883-84.......11/12.......4/06 1884-85.......11/19.......4/14 1885-86.......11/01.......4/04 1886-87.......11/07.......4/19 1887-88.......10/30.......4/25 1888-89.......11/17.......3/31 1889-90.......10/24.......4/19 1890-91.......11/21.......5/06 1891-92.......11/04.......4/25 1892-93.......11/11.......3/30 1893-94.......11/15.......4/09 1894-95.......11/07.......4/05 1895-96.......11/12.......4/08 1896-97.......11/23.......4/20 1897-98.......11/18.......4/07 1898-99.......11/24.......4/06 1899-00.......11/12.......4/11 1900-01.......11/15.......3/31 1901-02.......11/10.......3/20 1902-03.......12/05.......4/05 1903-04.......11/07.......4/20 1904-05.......10/31.......3/15 1905-06.......11/14.......4/01 1906-07.......11/29.......4/03 1907-08.......12/03.......4/05 1908-09.......11/04.......4/11 1909-10.......11/30.......3/18 1910-11.......11/20.......4/03 1911-12.......11/03.......4/04 1912-13.......11/03.......3/28 1913-14.......11/11.......4/13 1914-15.......11/10.......4/04 1915-16.......11/18.......4/09 1916-17.......11/15.......4/10 1917-18.......10/31.......4/12 1918-19.......11/24.......4/26 1919-20.......11/14.......4/11 1920-21.......11/12.......4/11 1921-22.......11/06.......4/21 1922-23.......11/21.......4/14 1923-24.......11/09.......4/03 1924-25.......11/16.......4/21 1925-26.......10/29.......4/20 1926-27.......11/04.......3/28 1927-28.......11/07.......4/16 1928-29.......10/30.......3/18 1929-30.......11/22.......4/24 1930-31.......11/05.......3/14 1931-32.......11/07.......4/13 1932-33.......11/20.......3/25 1933-34.......10/26.......3/29 1934-35.......11/14.......4/16 1935-36.......11/23.......4/08 1936-37.......10/26.......3/31 1937-38.......11/21.......4/07 1938-39.......11/24.......4/13 1939-40.......11/13.......4/15 1940-41.......10/19.......3/31 1941-42.......11/25.......2/28 1942-43.......11/13.......4/16 1943-44.......11/15.......4/06 1944-45.......11/23.......3/11 1945-46.......11/21.......3/12 1946-47.......11/23.......3/31 1947-48.......11/19.......4/04 1948-49.......12/11.......3/20 1949-50.......11/22.......4/14 1950-51.......11/16.......3/27 1951-52.......11/03.......3/17 1952-53.......11/29.......3/11 1953-54.......11/06.......4/04 1954-55.......11/10.......3/29 1955-56.......11/19.......3/28 1956-57.......11/10.......3/25 1957-58.......11/11.......4/09 1958-59.......11/28.......3/29 1959-60.......11/17.......3/27 1960-61.......11/07.......3/21 1961-62.......11/10.......3/09 1962-63.......11/07.......3/23 1963-64.......12/01.......4/05 1964-65.......11/21.......4/01 1965-66.......10/29.......3/29 1966-67.......11/04.......4/12 1967-68.......11/08.......4/06 1968-69.......11/21.......4/01 1969-70.......10/23.......4/11 1970-71.......11/23.......3/27 1971-72.......11/08.......4/09 1972-73.......10/20.......3/21 1973-74.......11/10.......4/10 1974-75.......10/19.......4/10 1975-76.......10/31.......4/12 1976-77.......10/27.......4/10 1977-78.......11/14.......4/03 1978-79.......11/25.......4/08 1979-80.......11/30.......4/17 1980-81.......11/16.......3/21 1981-82.......11/25.......4/08 1982-83.......11/13.......3/30 1983-84.......11/13.......3/18 1984-85.......11/19.......4/10 1985-86.......12/02.......3/22 1986-87.......11/13.......4/01 1987-88.......11/11.......3/23 1988-89.......10/31.......3/22 1989-90.......11/18.......3/28 1990-91.......11/09.......4/13 1991-92.......11/26.......4/13 1992-93.......11/08.......3/20 1993-94.......11/21.......3/19 1994-95.......11/23.......4/06 1995-96.......11/09.......3/29 1996-97.......11/12.......4/10 1997-98.......11/13.......3/23 1998-99.......12/22.......3/16 1999-00.......11/30.......4/09 2000-01.......11/20.......3/28 2001-02.......12/16.......4/07 2002-03.......11/27.......4/08 2003-04.......11/09.......4/06 2004-05.......11/09.......3/16 2005-06.......11/18.......3/22 2006-07.......12/04.......4/09 2007-08.......11/11.......3/30 2008-09.......11/18.......3/24 2009-10.......12/07.......3/27 2010-11.......12/04.......3/29 2011-12.......12/10.......3/27 2012-13.......11/06.......3/23 2013-14.......11/12.......4/16 2014-15.......11/18.......4/01 2015-16.......11/24.......4/10 2016-17.......12/09.......3/23 2017-18.......11/10........4/09 2018-19.......11/14........3/18 2019-20.......11/08.......3/01 2020-21.......10/31.......4/03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Beautiful 63 today. Incredible day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 68 now. Should make it to 71 or 72. Ewr is already 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EpicJolee Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, uncle W said: first and last freeze dates in Central Park... season....first.freeze....last.freeze.. 1876-77.......10/15.......4/08 1877-78.......11/07.......3/26 1878-79.......11/05.......4/06 1879-80.......10/25.......4/12 1880-81.......11/18.......4/07 1881-82.......11/22.......4/12 1882-83.......11/03.......4/03 1883-84.......11/12.......4/06 1884-85.......11/19.......4/14 1885-86.......11/01.......4/04 1886-87.......11/07.......4/19 1887-88.......10/30.......4/25 1888-89.......11/17.......3/31 1889-90.......10/24.......4/19 1890-91.......11/21.......5/06 1891-92.......11/04.......4/25 1892-93.......11/11.......3/30 1893-94.......11/15.......4/09 1894-95.......11/07.......4/05 1895-96.......11/12.......4/08 1896-97.......11/23.......4/20 1897-98.......11/18.......4/07 1898-99.......11/24.......4/06 1899-00.......11/12.......4/11 1900-01.......11/15.......3/31 1901-02.......11/10.......3/20 1902-03.......12/05.......4/05 1903-04.......11/07.......4/20 1904-05.......10/31.......3/15 1905-06.......11/14.......4/01 1906-07.......11/29.......4/03 1907-08.......12/03.......4/05 1908-09.......11/04.......4/11 1909-10.......11/30.......3/18 1910-11.......11/20.......4/03 1911-12.......11/03.......4/04 1912-13.......11/03.......3/28 1913-14.......11/11.......4/13 1914-15.......11/10.......4/04 1915-16.......11/18.......4/09 1916-17.......11/15.......4/10 1917-18.......10/31.......4/12 1918-19.......11/24.......4/26 1919-20.......11/14.......4/11 1920-21.......11/12.......4/11 1921-22.......11/06.......4/21 1922-23.......11/21.......4/14 1923-24.......11/09.......4/03 1924-25.......11/16.......4/21 1925-26.......10/29.......4/20 1926-27.......11/04.......3/28 1927-28.......11/07.......4/16 1928-29.......10/30.......3/18 1929-30.......11/22.......4/24 1930-31.......11/05.......3/14 1931-32.......11/07.......4/13 1932-33.......11/20.......3/25 1933-34.......10/26.......3/29 1934-35.......11/14.......4/16 1935-36.......11/23.......4/08 1936-37.......10/26.......3/31 1937-38.......11/21.......4/07 1938-39.......11/24.......4/13 1939-40.......11/13.......4/15 1940-41.......10/19.......3/31 1941-42.......11/25.......2/28 1942-43.......11/13.......4/16 1943-44.......11/15.......4/06 1944-45.......11/23.......3/11 1945-46.......11/21.......3/12 1946-47.......11/23.......3/31 1947-48.......11/19.......4/04 1948-49.......12/11.......3/20 1949-50.......11/22.......4/14 1950-51.......11/16.......3/27 1951-52.......11/03.......3/17 1952-53.......11/29.......3/11 1953-54.......11/06.......4/04 1954-55.......11/10.......3/29 1955-56.......11/19.......3/28 1956-57.......11/10.......3/25 1957-58.......11/11.......4/09 1958-59.......11/28.......3/29 1959-60.......11/17.......3/27 1960-61.......11/07.......3/21 1961-62.......11/10.......3/09 1962-63.......11/07.......3/23 1963-64.......12/01.......4/05 1964-65.......11/21.......4/01 1965-66.......10/29.......3/29 1966-67.......11/04.......4/12 1967-68.......11/08.......4/06 1968-69.......11/21.......4/01 1969-70.......10/23.......4/11 1970-71.......11/23.......3/27 1971-72.......11/08.......4/09 1972-73.......10/20.......3/21 1973-74.......11/10.......4/10 1974-75.......10/19.......4/10 1975-76.......10/31.......4/12 1976-77.......10/27.......4/10 1977-78.......11/14.......4/03 1978-79.......11/25.......4/08 1979-80.......11/30.......4/17 1980-81.......11/16.......3/21 1981-82.......11/25.......4/08 1982-83.......11/13.......3/30 1983-84.......11/13.......3/18 1984-85.......11/19.......4/10 1985-86.......12/02.......3/22 1986-87.......11/13.......4/01 1987-88.......11/11.......3/23 1988-89.......10/31.......3/22 1989-90.......11/18.......3/28 1990-91.......11/09.......4/13 1991-92.......11/26.......4/13 1992-93.......11/08.......3/20 1993-94.......11/21.......3/19 1994-95.......11/23.......4/06 1995-96.......11/09.......3/29 1996-97.......11/12.......4/10 1997-98.......11/13.......3/23 1998-99.......12/22.......3/16 1999-00.......11/30.......4/09 2000-01.......11/20.......3/28 2001-02.......12/16.......4/07 2002-03.......11/27.......4/08 2003-04.......11/09.......4/06 2004-05.......11/09.......3/16 2005-06.......11/18.......3/22 2006-07.......12/04.......4/09 2007-08.......11/11.......3/30 2008-09.......11/18.......3/24 2009-10.......12/07.......3/27 2010-11.......12/04.......3/29 2011-12.......12/10.......3/27 2012-13.......11/06.......3/23 2013-14.......11/12.......4/16 2014-15.......11/18.......4/01 2015-16.......11/24.......4/10 2016-17.......12/09.......3/23 2017-18.......11/10........4/09 2018-19.......11/14........3/18 2019-20.......11/08.......3/01 2020-21.......10/31.......4/03 So In the 2019-2020 season, was the last freeze on 3/01 and also the earliest last freeze? Wow! It would be very curious because just that same year there was the earliest first freeze in 32 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, EpicJolee said: So In the 2019-2020 season, was the last freeze on 3/01 and also the earliest last freeze? Wow! It would be very curious because just that same year there was the earliest first freeze in 32 years! look more closely...Feb 1942 was the earliest last freeze...2/28... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 69 here, most of the island approaching 70. what a day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Im in Hauppauge this week. What a day outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Eduardo said: Plenty of solid years in that bunch and this is yet another factor that leads me to believe this won't be a total shutout. Niña's scare me, but we'll avoid a ratter so long as the Niña remains tempered and we manage to get some blocky periods. Even before we see what the NAO does in November, the MJO is giving hints in October. We usually have DJFM -NAO and -AO intervals coming off October Maritime Continent forcing like we saw this year. It’s the odd year with very strong forcing over the Western IO that seems to really set off the polar vortex. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 70 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 71 here. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Underperforming solar ascension phase favors La Nina vs El Nino, and some would say -NAO.. (late1960s and ~2009-2013) October NAO is 58% oppositely correlated with the Winter, but when Aug-Nov are -NAO, it's 60-65% for. fwiw solar ascension phase underperforming vs norm https://ibb.co/DgxKhkX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 nicest day of the year basically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Beautiful 70° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Stepped out of the office for lunch and didn't want to come back in. Tremendous day for early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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