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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, NHDrySlot said:

Three decades worth of experience weathering the most painful dryslots and "near misses" in the Merrimack Valley area. Cynical until I hit the 24-30" jackpot.

Nobody better at pissing and moaning their way to 18". 

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Just now, NHDrySlot said:

Can pretty much guarantee if Bedford pulls 18" there will be a rogue 30" slant report sourced in the deep woods of Windham.

Could probably start a thread investigating and roasting all the Rockingham County slant stickers. Hillsborough County has the Nashua CWSU to consistently under measure by 50%.

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7 minutes ago, NHDrySlot said:

Could probably start a thread investigating and roasting all the Rockingham County slant stickers. Hillsborough County has the Nashua CWSU to consistently under measure by 50%.

LOL. In case you all didn’t know, myself, NHdryslot (red tag him) and Wx2fish all worked together. We’re all good friends and big weenies. And good at giving each other crap. NHdryslot loves it when I rain, so he and @40/70 Benchmark will have fun pig pilling on me. 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ray what do you think of 2016-17 as an analog?  Chris thinks thats a better analog than 2011-12 because it looks like we will have more NAO blocking than we did in 2011-12 and it will be more like 2016-17

 

It's certainly a better overall analog than 2011....the latter is a great Pacific analog (except for the fact la nina was a modoki), but it just isn't a very appropriate representation of the polar domain. 

The reason 2016 was not higher on my list is because it was very decidedly modoki with a westerly QBO, which is not a conducive environment for blocking.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing I noticed this morning is that the tropical convection forecast on the EPS does finally try to nudge east. I think some of those PNA forecasts going boom was due to convection more closer to Nina climo. The nudge east supports more of a dateline ridge probably after first week of December. EPS tries to show that. 
In that graphic below, look how far west the convection is. That’s probably not supportive of a -EPO to +PNA ridge for more than a few transient days despite what the models showed last week and the week before. But, it finally shows signs of moving east which supports more dateline ridging. Now to make sure we are on the good side of the gradient.

 

650AF8F9-D678-4E3D-BFA9-0D2EEDE34C5D.png

This is the smoking gun for change IMO....great post. I made a few posts about how we needed the convection to get out of the bowels of the maritime continent and move east towards the dateline. Theoretically speaking, the eastward propagation of la nina should help that. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL. In case you all didn’t know, myself, NHdryslot (red tag him) and Wx2fish all worked together. We’re all good friends and big weenies. And good at giving each other crap. NHdryslot loves it when I rain, so he and @40/70 Benchmark will have fun pig pilling on me. 

Hmm, Must have to do with the name.......................:lol:

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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL. In case you all didn’t know, myself, NHdryslot (red tag him) and Wx2fish all worked together. We’re all good friends and big weenies. And good at giving each other crap. NHdryslot loves it when I rain, so he and @40/70 Benchmark will have fun pig pilling on me. 

Thats awesome! small world 

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Most towns have noise ordinances that go to 7am.  Call the police. Or buy a wrist rocket slingshot and light his ass up with acorns. 
:devilsmiley:

I never I mean never call the police unless it's an emergency.  I have a slingshot lol

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12 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

How about the MANY holiday movies that show snow for weeks in the village while there are green leaves on many trees in the background? The lack of paying attention to details drives. me. bonkers. My wife insists that most "normal" people don't even pay attention to those things... :lol:

yup lol..I always say that to my girlfriend. I go look at the green leaves on all the trees …so pathetic and foney.  
 

The first time I pointed this out, she goes omg I never noticed that, but you’re right.  Now when I say it, and say they filmed it in July, she goes go in the other room and don’t ruin the movie for me:lol:.   

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Subtleties in the runs offer a lean back to a more chillier regime after perhaps a two or three days of con attempts. Lol - we'll see. 

Looking at individual GEF members from 00z cycle and matching with the EPS mean for H500 mb anomalies, as well as sfc pressure synoptic evolution... the only aspect limiting significant MA/NE/ NW Atl cyclogen is the lower troposhere is out of phase.  Still, next Saturday looks like a nasty wintry day, with gray grits in the air and probably a siggy upslope/terrain enhanced snow squally regime for central/NNE. It's pretty well agreed upon in both the GEFs and EPS means.  Hey.. winter appeal is what it is 

Not sure I buy this recent 12z wild windy deep cold noreaster for Dec 2 just yet. But... you know, ...the suggestion from the telecon spread was always more encouraging than the operational runs of any model - interesting...  But there is still a correction tendency going on with the +PNA/-NAO ( and looking at the EPS mass fields argues any tele's from that cluster would likely match the American source - ).

People need to see the significant event on the charts to be enthused.  This is unfortunately a situation where the canvased potential is waiting -

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

yup lol..I always say that to my girlfriend. I go look at the green leaves on all the trees …so pathetic and foney.  
 

The first time I pointed this out, she goes omg I never noticed that, but you’re right.  Now when I say it, and say they filmed it in July, she goes go in the other room and don’t ruin the movie for me:lol:.   

I saw an episode of North Woods Law where they pulled over some snowmobilers in Lincoln, NH. They showed the stop and the officers talking to the riders. Then they would cut to a shot of just the officer explaining the rule that was being violated. It’s was just a head shot with him wearing a helmet but the background was completely green forest. Lol. I figure those type of scenes were shot when they were editing together the show at a later time. 

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15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Cold night last night. Caught a massive coyote on my ring. Thing looked like a bloody German Shepard 

Coywolf?   I saw the same thing driving to my house from errands a few days ago.   Could by coydog also....

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One of the things I I'm truly looking forward to is when we do have something to track as far as a potential storm goes. I love the way everyone comes together, there's an excitement level that we're all feeling. All the worries and frustrations of past disappointments disappear. We all know it's going to happen, and I'm looking forward to it. I have a good feeling they'll be many opportunities to feel this way

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