November Discussion

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Maybe that low trends east too??  Never know this far out? 

Yeah, I'll start paying attention thursday or friday.

[PhineasC]

It's been bouncing around on the models. Still plenty of time for shifts.

[rclab]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Happy Birthday Ray

 

It must be difficult to dye upper lip and chin hair. As always …..

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I'll start paying attention thursday or friday.

 

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's been bouncing around on the models. Still plenty of time for shifts.

Ya for sure on both your comments.  At least it looks active. 

[GCWarrior]

I'd take the 0z GFS vs the 6z GFS for the places I'll be skiing next week.  EURO... I'm running and hiding. 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We scream next week?

Scream and flood based on the Euro.

[Ginx snewx]

My Bud Ralph's house featured here. Wow. He is still in the hospital recovering from surgery he had right before the tornado hit.

https://www.wpri.com/video/residents-picking-up-the-remains-following-weekend-tornadoes/7154629/

[mahk_webstah]

The WPC map was interesting this morning.  It had the low inland over CT Tues but then at the elbow Wed at 996.  The snow probs were pure NNE with no probs until about the Lakes Region of NH.  I guess we need something to force it under a bit more and a high to the north.   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

[klw]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That view looks like it couldn’t be any further from what I experienced all day today… and only like 15-20 miles away as the crow flies.

Meanwhile the plows are out on the other side of Chittenden County.

BTV is in another world, it’s so awesome the local variation.

More BTV foliage talk:

Those trees look very different at ground level and actually turned yellow weeks ago.

I took this photo about half an hour ago:

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The WPC map was interesting this morning.  It had the low inland over CT Tues but then at the elbow Wed at 996.  The snow probs were pure NNE with no probs until about the Lakes Region of NH.  I guess we need something to force it under a bit more and a high to the north.   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

I think most of us are going to need to wait until the following week for any interesting wintery weather.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think most of us are going to need to wait until the following week for any interesting wintery weather.

or maybe the thanksgiving weekend period.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

or maybe the thanksgiving weekend period.

Very possible most of us don't see any accumulating snow until December....that isn't super uncommon. It's not the norm for the interior from your area down to ORH/interior SNE elevations, but it does happen now and again.

That said, the pattern does look pretty decent for the end of the month, so Nov 25-30 is definitely in play.

 

BTW, don't totally sell the anafront deal on late Thursday night/predawn Friday. I wouldn't expect a real storm, but certainly a C-2" is possible...esp for interior elevations.....if were talking about first measurable snow for some.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very possible most of us don't see any accumulating snow until December....that isn't super uncommon. It's not the norm for the interior from your area down to ORH/interior SNE elevations, but it does happen now and again.

That said, the pattern does look pretty decent for the end of the month, so Nov 25-30 is definitely in play.

 

BTW, don't totally sell the anafront deal on late Thursday night/predawn Friday. I wouldn't expect a real storm, but certainly a C-2" is possible...esp for interior elevations.....if were talking about first measurable snow for some.

12z NAM has a little bit of snow.. would be nice to see

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very possible most of us don't see any accumulating snow until December....that isn't super uncommon. It's not the norm for the interior from your area down to ORH/interior SNE elevations, but it does happen now and again.

That said, the pattern does look pretty decent for the end of the month, so Nov 25-30 is definitely in play.

 

BTW, don't totally sell the anafront deal on late Thursday night/predawn Friday. I wouldn't expect a real storm, but certainly a C-2" is possible...esp for interior elevations.....if were talking about first measurable snow for some.

Ray is about throw his Tandy out the window

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Ray is about throw his Tandy out the window

Yea, sell.

I mean, maybe you could talk me into giving a flying one if I lived at 1K in ORH county, but no chance were I am.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm excited about the future in general, but not imminently intrigued by anything.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, sell.

I mean, maybe you could talk me into giving a flying one if I lived at 1K in ORH county, but no chance were I am.

You'd prob need some elevation in this one since the airmass is dogcrap. If it "pans out", it's the type of thing where it maybe snows light to moderate at 33-34F for maybe 3-4 hours or so...so you get a slushy inch at elevation and prob white rain elsewhere.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You'd prob need some elevation in this one since the airmass is dogcrap. If it "pans out", it's the type of thing where it maybe snows light to moderate at 33-34F for maybe 3-4 hours or so...so you get a slushy inch at elevation and prob white rain elsewhere.

Yup, same page.

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very possible most of us don't see any accumulating snow until December....that isn't super uncommon. It's not the norm for the interior from your area down to ORH/interior SNE elevations, but it does happen now and again.

That said, the pattern does look pretty decent for the end of the month, so Nov 25-30 is definitely in play.

 

BTW, don't totally sell the anafront deal on late Thursday night/predawn Friday. I wouldn't expect a real storm, but certainly a C-2" is possible...esp for interior elevations.....if were talking about first measurable snow for some.

there is snow in the zones up here but nothing that interesting in the discussion, though I read it quickly.  In 13 years living here Dendriteland, we usually don't get snow that becomes a permanent snowpack until mid December, but usually we get accumulating snow in November at some point

[Damage In Tolland]

Walt’s talking snow event Tgiving weekend and says modeled 

[ineedsnow]

12z Icon has a really intense storms looks like it stalls and does a loop   if it was just a bit colder would be a huge snowstorm for us

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Walt’s talking snow event Tgiving weekend and says modeled 

In NYC thread he created 

[Typhoon Tip]

I would not be surprised if the D7-9 amplitude model-morphs narrower in a N-S range, shaving some ( how much or how little..) amplitude as it does..

I have valid reasons for thinking so, one being trend consistency.  The models - et al - have been doing that for years.

The other reason: +PNA teleconnection is high confidence, true. Every GEF member, and the EPS synoptic means, both methods flag that advent over the next 2 weeks.   *BUT* flat in nature as Will surmised last week.   Flat lends to 'stretched' synoptics

That said, it is a mode change from about -1 to +1, signaling a' restoring event' will likely transpire  (Archembault) - how ever huge or pedestrian, aside.

The other interesting aspect is that a strong -NAO teleconnection forecast has emerged over the last couple of days, for that same time range. 

The operational Euro is all over the place. It's had a west limb, east limb, .. now as of 0z it has a kind of SE domain space bias. Of all places effected by NAOs ... New England is one that is uniquely a problem for this particular case. 

I don't think any model is really uniquely qualified as a better NAO handler, either.

In all .. this combination of telecon spread after any November 15, *after* an antecedent quasi -EPO cold loading, should storm.  Where and how, and how much? we'll see

[PhineasC]

12z GFS keeps the nastiest atmospheric river BS offshore this run. Hope that trend continues.

[TheBudMan]

2 hours ago, klw said:

More BTV foliage talk:

Those trees look very different at ground level and actually turned yellow weeks ago.

I took this photo about half an hour ago:

 

 

Quick walk to Foam Brewing      #beer   

 

[ORH_wxman]

That is an absolute beast -NAO block on the GFS at 12z. We've seen some runs do this from time to time and if a block like that forms, then it changes the tenure of the pattern from "pretty good" to "extremely favorable" for winter threats to end November and start December.

[dryslot]

I shutter when i hear a beast -NAO block.

[Lava Rock]

2 hours ago, klw said:

More BTV foliage talk:

Those trees look very different at ground level and actually turned yellow weeks ago.

I took this photo about half an hour ago:

 

someone go pull those leaves down already

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I shutter when i hear a beast -NAO block.

Enjoy the dry, cold weather.

[ineedsnow]

CMC is meh