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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That cold first 10 days of November vanished faster than Pickles undies on Dilf night. 
Persistent Gulf of Alaska trough stuck there thru Mid Nov. All Pacific air behind fronts 

Really ... nah - I see a teleconnector signaled, trend-footed confidence scenario for a "seasonal cold" wave - meaning ...nothing extraordinary, no.  But pervasive sub 540 hydrostatic thickness, under a generally moderate +PNAP flow structure that pervades the continent, from ~ Nov 2nd through the 9th. 

Of course, that's going by the tenor of the operational GFS, combine with the telecon from the GEFs system - still... I don't find these sources, in that time range, to necessarily be auto- less reliable than the EPS cluster. 

I guess we'll see.  But ...you know?  part of the problem is that we are 'extraordinary event' saturated to the point where we don't see the middling 'normal' departures as readily.  It's sort of conditioning us to collectively even inadvertently miss if not ignore them, altogether.  

Case in point:  Imagine a scenario where there are three distinct winter events in a 10-day period.   One is 3-5" with a big scale -up potential, one is 3-5 but is sketchy, but the D7 one is a historic blizzard.   The first one verifies 4.5" ... while the D7/8 comes in modeled even more terrifying catastrophic.. The, the next sketchy one does surprisingly well, but by shadow of the looming ( now ) D6 cryo-bomb, does anyone even know it is snowing?  Then, the big dawg busts.   What do you think the opinion of those 10 days will be, when in fact ...  9 or 10" is a 7 to 10 day +snow anomaly?    This is the life as weather chart over-stimulated storm junkies - not a very good or realistic perspective.  I mean I'm not saying this is you .. I'm speaking the straw American weather site -  ..Something like that and over-numbing may not be seeing this cool down in early November ( and this is in spirit been consistent for several consecutive cycles of the GFS) - and again.. fits the erstwhile PNA/NAO ... even hints in some Euro runs for -EPO 'blip' but cross that bridge:

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Yeah... I think I'm good and ready for this Nor'easter to trundle its way out into its death smear across the norther Atlantic and good riddance. 

After awhile with these things ... I tend to get storm fatigue.  Almost "modeling and following the f'er ad nauseam" fatigue, is more like it.  I just get to a point, sometimes even before they happen where it is 'enough is enough' already.   How many different model renditions of the same event does one need to field. Particularly when we all know it will strike one or two communities while sparing the rest of us a pedestrian ordeal.  

It's like a state Lotto ...  If you are that lucky town, you won that storms drawing.   And its like somehow by escape into the model triggered re-imagined reality, we up our chances of picking the right numbers on our tickets.

So, most don't win.... But, because we risk "hurting the storms" feelings, during cancel-culture, or risk getting black-listed in the weather-social-media's equivalence to the House on being Un-American Activities Committee or something...  the storm gets to be an all-timer.  Gosh forbid one ever is - ..who's gonna know it?

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8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I think I'm good and ready for this Nor'easter to trundle its way out into its death smear across the norther Atlantic and good riddance. 

After awhile with these things ... I tend to get storm fatigue.  Almost "modeling and following the f'er ad nauseam" fatigue, is more like it.  I just get to a point, sometimes even before they happen where it is 'enough is enough' already.   How many different model renditions of the same event does one need to field. Particularly when we all know it will strike one or two communities while sparing the rest of us a pedestrian ordeal.  

It's like a state Lotto ...  If you are that lucky town, you won that storms drawing.   And its like somehow by escape into the model triggered re-imagined reality, we up our chances of picking the right numbers on our tickets.

So, most don't win.... But, because we risk "hurting the storms" feelings, during cancel-culture, or risk getting black-listed in the weather-social-media's equivalence to the House on being Un-American Activities Committee or something...  the storm gets to be an all-timer.  Gosh forbid one ever is - ..who's gonna know it?

500k people without power in Mass Lol more than 1 or 2 communities.  I swear you might possibly live in the most boring spot for exciting weather in New England. 

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11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

500k people without power in Mass Lol more than 1 or 2 communities.  I swear you might possibly live in the most boring spot for exciting weather in New England. 

It's probably more like 1 million, or 1.5 million people since customers represent households. 

"Particularly when we all know it will strike one or two communities while sparing the rest of us a pedestrian ordeal."

That's one way to downplay impacts that don't affect one's backyard. 

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First mention of snow in my P/C forecast, And so it begins.

Saturday
A chance of rain showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then rain showers after 10am. High near 50. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

First mention of snow in my P/C forecast, And so it begins.

Saturday
A chance of rain showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then rain showers after 10am. High near 50. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

I like the avatar-where is that?

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

First mention of snow in my P/C forecast, And so it begins.

Saturday
A chance of rain showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then rain showers after 10am. High near 50. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

I've got to finish winterizing the boat.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nice!  I can be there in 4-5 hours although probably add an hour for lower speeds on winding 2 lane roads..

It would be on RTE 201 off of 495, Come Jan-Feb there are sections like a wash board with the frost so yeah it will rattle your teeth ha ha.

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3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Yeah its 95 once you get to thru here and its the Fairfield/Skow exit 133 to hit 201.

Once you're out of the built-up section of Skowhegan one can roll, slowing for Solon/Bingham and the nasty curves just north of the latter.  The road north of there grows some frost heaves as winter goes on but the log trucks run 70+ if the pavement isn't icy.
Some truth in the joke about the PQ driver stopped for speeding on the interstate south of WVL.  "But officer, the sign says 95 and I was only 5 mph over."  After being instructed that it was a route number not a speed limit, he added, "I'm sure glad you didn't catch me on 201!"

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