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October 2021


Stormlover74
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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85).  More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall.  Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month.  Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the  warm spots but chances may be increasing.

Very La NIna October, at least for the first part with the SE Ridge. Euro monthly's had a warm September and October followed by cooling in November and a cold December. Hope that pans out

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5 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Follows the trend of recent years where we get some brief cooldowns in between the warmth like Bluewave mentioned above.

Yeah, October 1st may be our coolest temperature departures for a while. 
 

EPS Oct 4-11

FB38D217-9E19-4200-A204-6155DC19F596.thumb.png.37d26551f8180754657d5e9dc8e140c4.png

 

Oct 11-18

 

47D8F004-9419-4AB6-836C-D98F92F97692.thumb.png.27c3a347283b5ab33ce7e774732f8009.png

 

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September ended at  70.3[+1.1].     Second half was +2.2, since we were Normal after 15 days.

btw:    My 1968 NYC Almanac has the 30-Year Normal att. as 68.5 for September.     So up 0.7 in 60 years, 1945-2005 midpoints.

Reached 67* here yesterday.

The first 8 days of October are averaging  69degs.(62/77), or +5.

53*(76%RH) here at 6am.        60* at 11am.         68* at 3pm.         Reached 70* at 4:30pm.

Today:     67-70,wind  nw. to w., m. sunny.

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Morning thoughts...

October 2021 got off to a crisp start. Low temperatures included:

Allentown: 42°
Bridgeport: 50°
Danbury: 42°
Islip: 49°
New York City: 51°
Newark: 52°
Philadelphia: 50°
Westhampton: 37°
White Plains: 45°

The crisp start masks what will very likely be October 2021's true nature. The month will very likely be warmer to much warmer than normal. New York City could finish with a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above.

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and continued cool. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°
Newark: 72°
Philadelphia: 72°

Warmer air will arrive for the weekend.

Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.5°
Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 73.3°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.0°; 15-Year: 74.3°

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 76.3°
Average temperature: 76.3°
Average error: 1.1°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 80.4°
Average temperature: 80.2°
Average error: 0.9°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 79.8°
Average temperature: 80.1°
Average error: 1.1°

 

 

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

September ended at  70.3[+1.1].     Second half was +2.2, since we were Normal after 15 days.

btw:    My 1968 NYC Almanac has the 30-Year Normal att. as 68.5 for September.     So up 0.7 in 60 years, 1945-2005 midpoints.

Reached 67* here yesterday.

The first 8 days of October are averaging  69degs.(62/77), or +5.

53*(76%RH) here at 6am.

Today:     67-70,wind  nw. to w., m. sunny.

The September warming has accelerated in recent years. The 2000-21 mean is 69.6. The 2010-21 mean is 70.4.

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Only the third time that ISP had the first 40s of the season as late as October. The other two years were 2015 and 2018. The low of 53 before midnight yesterday was also the warmest September monthly minimum temperature.

 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121
2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131
2003 06-03 (2003) 48 09-30 (2003) 45 118
2002 06-08 (2002) 46 09-29 (2002) 49 112
1970 05-31 (1970) 48 09-29 (1970) 46 120
1980 06-12 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 48 106
2016 05-23 (2016) 49 09-25 (2016) 48 124
2005 05-28 (2005) 48 09-25 (2005) 49 119
1987 06-07 (1987) 49 09-25 (1987) 42 109
2014 06-01 (2014) 49 09-23 (2014) 45 113
1998 06-10 (1998) 47 09-23 (1998) 44 104
1974 05-28 (1974) 42 09-23 (1974) 46 117
1976 06-13 (1976) 49 09-22 (1976) 46 100
2008 05-30 (2008) 47 09-21 (2008) 48 113
1981 06-08 (1981) 47 09-21 (1981) 47 104
2004 05-30 (2004) 41 09-20 (2004) 49 112


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 53 0
2 2015 52 0
3 2018 51 0
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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only the third time that ISP had the first 40s of the season as late as October. The other two years were 2015 and 2018. The low of 53 before midnight yesterday was also the warmest September monthly minimum temperature.

 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121
2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131
2003 06-03 (2003) 48 09-30 (2003) 45 118
2002 06-08 (2002) 46 09-29 (2002) 49 112
1970 05-31 (1970) 48 09-29 (1970) 46 120
1980 06-12 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 48 106
2016 05-23 (2016) 49 09-25 (2016) 48 124
2005 05-28 (2005) 48 09-25 (2005) 49 119
1987 06-07 (1987) 49 09-25 (1987) 42 109
2014 06-01 (2014) 49 09-23 (2014) 45 113
1998 06-10 (1998) 47 09-23 (1998) 44 104
1974 05-28 (1974) 42 09-23 (1974) 46 117
1976 06-13 (1976) 49 09-22 (1976) 46 100
2008 05-30 (2008) 47 09-21 (2008) 48 113
1981 06-08 (1981) 47 09-21 (1981) 47 104
2004 05-30 (2004) 41 09-20 (2004) 49 112


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 53 0
2 2015 52 0
3 2018 51 0

Yea no 40s in September here which I can’t remember for my location before 

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Little early to throw in the towel on October guys. What is it 9 hours old?

Might I add, with glee, that forecasts of extreme warmth through a colder month on this sub forum have been notoriously wrong and usually covered up with “the weeklies changed overnight” posts.

54F at 9am.

47F in SLC at 7 am✈️

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