CIK62 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The last 2 days of October are averaging 61degs.(57/65), or +8. Month to date is 62.2[+3.9]. October should end at 62.1[+4.2]. Reached 61 again here yesterday. Today: 60-64, wind e., m. cloudy, some breaks, rain late. EURO Nov. 01-07 is 46(40/52), or -5. 62*(96%RH) here at 6am. 64* at Noon. 65* at 2pm. 61* at 6pm. 60* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Morning thoughts… Through 7 am EDT, New York City had picked up 0.91” of rain from the ongoing system. That brought the annual precipitation figure to 57.11”. As a result, 2021 now ranks as New York City’s 15th wettest year on record. By the time the last rain ends late tonight or early tomorrow, 2021 could be in the 14th position. Today will be cloudy with some additional showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 65° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 59.6°; 15-Year: 59.7° Newark: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.0°; 15-Year: 62.0° The sun should return tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Drier air moving into parts of the region, though not Suffolk County, resulted in several hours of afternoon sunshine and balmy readings. There are growing signs of autumn. But there is also a dissenting opinion from nature. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 A warmer than normal Halloween will conclude a warm October in which many locations in the region will see their warmest monthly minimum temperatures on record for October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A warmer than normal Halloween will conclude a warm October in which many locations in the region will see their warmest monthly minimum temperatures on record for October. Interesting that the mean temp for 10/31 went down in the most recent set of averages. Must have been some warm Halloween's in the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and unseasonably mild. However, cooler weather is on the way. It will turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the first week of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. There is an increasing probability that a warming trend could commence during the second week of November. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 30 4 pm): Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) Mount Pocono, PA: 35° (record: 34°, 1920) New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 49° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast favors the Cluster 2 scenario. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 30 4 pm is 15.21". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -3.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.468 today. On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.878 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.847 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: Interesting that the mean temp for 10/31 went down in the most recent set of averages. Must have been some warm Halloween's in the 80's. 2011, 2012 and 2020 were cold. 2020 had the coldest mean temperature (39.0F) since 1925 and the 2nd coldest on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 2011, 2012 and 2020 were cold. 2020 had the coldest mean temperature (39.0F) since 1925 and the 2nd coldest on record. Thanks. Of course the temp difference could of been a result of some colder years and not necessarily a warm 1980's. 2011 and 2012 were the super cold years after the October snowstorm and Sandy respectively, I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 The last day of October is averaging 60degs.(55/65), or +7. Nov. 01-07 50(45/54), or -1. Month to date is 62.1[+4.0]. October will end at 62.0[+4.1]. Reached 65 here yesterday. Today: 62-66, wind ese., p. cloudy. 57*(98%RH) here at 6am, street wet. 56* at 8am, clearing up. Was a Bum Steer---rain and 57* at 9am. 59* at Noon. 62* at 2pm. 65* at 3pm. Reached 66* at 4pm. 60* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 One of the warmest Octobers and falls so far from the mid-Atlantic to New England. October Fall so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Picked up 0.46" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the warmest Octobers and falls so far from the mid-Atlantic to New England. October Fall so far Likely in large part thanks to the very persistent +EPO since the beginning of September, it’s been relentless. If November also averages a +EPO, it would be a very bad sign. Griteater’s new twitter thread explains in detail: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Likely in large part thanks to the very persistent +EPO since the beginning of September, it’s been relentless. If November also averages a +EPO, it would be a very bad sign. Griteater’s new twitter thread explains in detail: The September and October composite looks much different than 2011 and 1999. Notice how much more of a south based -NAO -AO pattern we had this year. The Northeast Pacific low was displaced south from Alaska closer to the PAC NW with the recent record storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will become partly sunny. It will be unseasonably mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 66° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 59.2°; 15-Year: 59.4° Newark: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 61.6° Cooler air will begin pushing into the region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Currently 61 here under partly sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Actually warm in the sun! 62F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Only the 2nd time that Newark made it to 60°every day in October. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60 Missing Count 1971 31 0 2021 31 0 - 2017 30 0 - 1994 30 0 - 1984 30 0 - 1947 30 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Bright sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and temperatures in the 60s made for anything but a frightening Halloween, at least as far as the weather is concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Unforecasted rain in the LHV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 An unseasonably warm October is concluding with an unseasonably warm Halloween Day. October will finish with a mean temperature of 62.0° (4.1° above normal) in New York City. Numerous locations in the region saw their warmest monthly minimum temperature on record for November. Those locations included: Atlantic City: 41° (old record: 40°, 2004) Bangor: 35° (old record: 34°, 1968 and 1989) Bridgeport: 43° (old record: 41°, 2004) Harrisburg: 43° (tied record set in 1984) Islip: 42° (old record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) Mount Pocono, PA: 35° (old record: 34°, 1920) New Haven: 42° (old record: 39°, 2014) New York City-JFK: 47° (old record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 49° (old record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (old record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (tied record set in 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (old record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Providence: 41° (old record: 39°, 1971) Scranton: 38° (old record: 36°, 1971) Sterling, VA: 39° (old record: 37°, 1971) Syracuse: 36° (tied record set in 1971) Washington, DC: 47° (old record: 46°, 1971 and 1984) Wilmington, DE: 43° (old record: 41°, 1971) It will turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the first week of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. There is an increasing probability that a warming trend could commence during the second week of November. Overall, November will more likely than not average somewhat below normal to near normal in much of the region. The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast favors the Cluster 2 scenario. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 31 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -1.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.752 today. On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.983 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.879 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 New Haven and Newark are concluding their warmest October on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 October finished here at +5.2°...3rd warmest in 44 years behind 2017 and 2007. Rainfall of 6.80".... 38.12" past 4 months and 60" ytd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 14 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Unforecasted rain in the LHV! had a brief light shower as I was walking around with the kids last night-was a bit surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 On 10/31/2021 at 6:27 PM, donsutherland1 said: An unseasonably warm October is concluding with an unseasonably warm Halloween Day. October will finish with a mean temperature of 62.0° (4.1° above normal) in New York City. Numerous locations in the region saw their warmest monthly minimum temperature on record for November. Those locations included: Atlantic City: 41° (old record: 40°, 2004) Bangor: 35° (old record: 34°, 1968 and 1989) Bridgeport: 43° (old record: 41°, 2004) Harrisburg: 43° (tied record set in 1984) Islip: 42° (old record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) Mount Pocono, PA: 35° (old record: 34°, 1920) New Haven: 42° (old record: 39°, 2014) New York City-JFK: 47° (old record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 49° (old record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (old record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (tied record set in 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (old record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Providence: 41° (old record: 39°, 1971) Scranton: 38° (old record: 36°, 1971) Sterling, VA: 39° (old record: 37°, 1971) Syracuse: 36° (tied record set in 1971) Washington, DC: 47° (old record: 46°, 1971 and 1984) Wilmington, DE: 43° (old record: 41°, 1971) It will turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the first week of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. There is an increasing probability that a warming trend could commence during the second week of November. Overall, November will more likely than not average somewhat below normal to near normal in much of the region. The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast favors the Cluster 2 scenario. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 31 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -1.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.752 today. On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.983 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.879 (RMM). Thanks for the list, Don! I believe this will be Mt Poconos latest first freeze on record? And Allentown didn't get below 40 in October? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks for the list, Don! I believe this will be Mt Poconos latest first freeze on record? And Allentown didn't get below 40 in October? Yes. It should be MPO’s latest first freeze. Allentown’s low was 36. That’s why it didn’t appear on the list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. It should be MPO’s latest first freeze. Allentown’s low was 36. That’s why it didn’t appear on the list. wow they actually got almost as cold as MPO, must have been one of those inversion layers that makes the valleys colder. Will all these locations get their first freeze this week? I'm guessing the coastal regions and the city will have to wait for around Thanksgiving to have our first freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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