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October 2021


Stormlover74
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On 9/24/2021 at 2:56 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Our first full month of autumn. Will it feature more above normal temps and potential threats from the tropics?

Euro is a washout the first weekend of the month 

the washout is now a ridge. lol

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

October will start with record blocking over Eastern Canada. The weeklies continue  this general 500 mb pattern right through October. It’s interesting since several long range seasonal forecasts were showing this type of October regime since last summer. So plenty of Canadian high pressure to our north.

154D3333-520A-4BED-AA34-0255E7459E02.png.7564f03c836e35126935e627de694310.png 


Oct 4-11

EB80D1BE-B4F4-4B32-A108-13DABB05896D.thumb.png.5771b0ee47873f4a7405e9b2781972f2.png


Oct 11-18


9DE83DDD-2641-40D9-A141-D32D9D73A192.thumb.png.e770e2fcdcc83d6120fff85ca16e5f54.png

 

What does this mean temperature-wise?

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A colder than average start to October. Then a very gradual moderation in temperatures. Models eventually get us back to above normal temperatures. But the warmest departures look to remain to our west. 
 

9-27 to 10-04

C526F5DE-8F0E-4BC7-B584-F81F0CBD1EFB.thumb.png.f2446f089b903039a7245af1f9be4a22.png

 

10-04 to 10-11

C5BB16C2-AB4C-4BC1-ACFC-05443DBF830D.thumb.png.5ea79673b7ab31b746ed90e79bdf6480.png

 

10-11 to 10-18

425ECB72-CDE8-4CA9-AFBB-598A92B18A05.thumb.png.2e9654c2912847305323b8d79142681e.png

 

This highly suggest a lot of onshore flow days so probably near normal highs and warm minimums. 

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Maybe the big ridge over Eastern Canada and the Northeast means that we are finally getting 500 mb patterns that are coupled with the ENSO. This is a textbook La Niña pattern for the month of October. It could be related to the recent PDO drop and cooler SSTs off of the West Coast. 16-17 and 17-18 were are last two winters that the La Niña or any ENSO state fully coupled. 

1C4611D6-A490-45CA-BFEE-9670F43912DE.gif.c778dc82bcbe5ac17bbef9a0df6dfde6.gif
 

010A0E3E-BB89-4BCE-9627-639FCBEC0FA8.png.5428abd63b0a6e921732bebe0f6bcec3.png

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NYC October temperature and precipitation......

decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min..ave Rainfall/snowfall

1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6......76.0...34.1......85...29......3.55"...0.1"

1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17".....0

1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59".....0

1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39".....0

1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41".....0

1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"...0.1"

1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22".....T

1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42".....T

1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"...0.1"

1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45".....T

1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88".....T

1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01".....0

1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85".....0

2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23".....T

2010's.....59.2.......64.1....57.1......81.9...39.1......93...33......4.20"....0.3"

2020.......57.9...............................74.0...32.0......74...32......5.05".....0

1870---

2019.......57.2................................79.8...37.4.....94...28......3.70"......T

1990---

2019.......58.0................................80.0...38.7.....93...33......4.43"...0.1"

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Stupid question…going to the Jets game on Sunday (I know, haha, why bother?) and more important to me/us is the tailgate. It was all sun and Upper 60s until today where there is now a chance of showers. Can any of you smarter than me tell me how much rain we might get and what part of the day. East Rutherford. Thanks in advance. 

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A return to warmer than average temperatures following a brief cooler to near normal first day of the month. This matches up with September and October being the fastest warming months of fall. 
 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. So we get an extension of summer into September. 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

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8 hours ago, guinness77 said:

Stupid question…going to the Jets game on Sunday (I know, haha, why bother?) and more important to me/us is the tailgate. It was all sun and Upper 60s until today where there is now a chance of showers. Can any of you smarter than me tell me how much rain we might get and what part of the day. East Rutherford. Thanks in advance. 

The way it's look now, you should remain dry.   I'm predicting partly cloud skies and a 38-3 loss.  Enjoy!

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We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85).  More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall.  Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month.  Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the  warm spots but chances may be increasing.

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26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85).  More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall.  Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month.  Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the  warm spots but chances may be increasing.

some models are wet starting Mon/Tue (euro/gfs) others are fairly dry-CMC....that will factor into high temps for sure

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GEFS' OUTLOOK FOR FIRST 15 DAYS OF OCTOBER.   A good +4 or +5.     Precipitation not shown is BN at 1.5".

 

1632960000-udEy7l61ydk.png

And look at this waste of High T's,    m. cloudy all the way, and little rain for the trouble.       Actually cloudy and chance of rain till the 12th.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/30/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  52  68| 57  77| 62  76| 63  73| 64  75| 66  77| 64  78| 62 52 68
 TMP  53  64| 59  70| 64  67| 65  66| 66  69| 68  69| 66  71| 63      
 DPT  40  41| 48  53| 54  57| 60  62| 63  60| 61  59| 60  60| 56      
 CLD  CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   6   4|  4   5|  3   3|  3   7|  7   5|  3   4|  5   6| 10      
 P12   4   1|  1   4|  2  16| 50  34| 50  27| 21  27| 30  28| 35999999
 P24       4|      4|     16|     58|     55|     38|     42|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  1   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      1|      1|      0|       |         
 T12   1   0|  2   0|  1   1|  7   5| 12   8|  3   3|  3   3|  2      
 T24        |  2    |  1    |  7    | 14    |  8    |  3    |  7      
 PZP   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0      
 PSN   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0      
 PRS   0   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0   1|  1   1|  1   1|  1   1|  1      
 TYP   R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R      
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         

 

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10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Easy +10 through mid October. Highs in the low to mid 70s with some days near 80. 

Lows not getting below 54-55. Probably another top 5 warmest month if not higher. 

Very scary stuff

Follows the trend of recent years where we get some brief cooldowns in between the warmth like Bluewave mentioned above.

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And the cooldowns are only to average or a tad below but feels cold with all the heat on either side of the cooldown

now that the nws shows all station data going back to when the stations were founded i pick random months from the past to see how much we've changed

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october 1937 at ewr

Sum 1929 1391 - - 355 6 4.56 0.0 -
Average 62.2 44.9 53.5 -4.0 - - - - 0.0
Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 -
1937-10-01 72 44 58.0 -5.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-02 73 51 62.0 -0.9 3 0 0.02 0.0 0
1937-10-03 59 51 55.0 -7.5 10 0 0.01 0.0 0
1937-10-04 70 53 61.5 -0.6 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-05 72 58 65.0 3.3 0 0 0.49 0.0 0
1937-10-06 77 65 71.0 9.7 0 6 T 0.0 0
1937-10-07 77 51 64.0 3.1 1 0 T 0.0 0
1937-10-08 56 43 49.5 -11.0 15 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-09 53 38 45.5 -14.6 19 0 0.03 0.0 0
1937-10-10 50 43 46.5 -13.2 18 0 0.16 0.0 0
1937-10-11 57 43 50.0 -9.3 15 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-12 71 39 55.0 -3.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-13 50 45 47.5 -11.0 17 0 T 0.0 0
1937-10-14 52 38 45.0 -13.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-15 51 32 41.5 -16.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-16 52 41 46.5 -10.9 18 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-17 56 29 42.5 -14.5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-18 65 35 50.0 -6.6 15 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-19 66 58 62.0 5.7 3 0 0.99 0.0 0
1937-10-20 68 46 57.0 1.1 8 0 1.74 0.0 0
1937-10-21 66 42 54.0 -1.6 11 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-22 67 51 59.0 3.8 6 0 0.22 0.0 0
1937-10-23 68 46 57.0 2.2 8 0 0.18 0.0 0
1937-10-24 47 37 42.0 -12.5 23 0 T 0.0 0
1937-10-25 54 33 43.5 -10.6 21 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-26 62 35 48.5 -5.3 16 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-27 66 50 58.0 4.6 7 0 0.15 0.0 0
1937-10-28 59 51 55.0 1.9 10 0 0.57 0.0 0
1937-10-29 61 50 55.5 2.7 9 0 T 0.0 0
1937-10-30 72 48 60.0 7.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
1937-10-31 60 45 52.5 0.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0
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july 1874 at the park. more lows in the 60s than 70s

Sum 2553 2047 - - 0 291 5.06 0.0
Average 82.4 66.0 74.2 -3.3 - - - -
Normal 84.9 70.1 77.5 - 0 388 4.60 0.0
1874-07-01 83 62 72.5 -3.8 0 8 0.00 0.0
1874-07-02 80 68 74.0 -2.4 0 9 0.01 0.0
1874-07-03 76 61 68.5 -8.1 0 4 0.00 0.0
1874-07-04 76 58 67.0 -9.8 0 2 0.44 0.0
1874-07-05 70 62 66.0 -10.9 0 1 0.00 0.0
1874-07-06 80 61 70.5 -6.6 0 6 0.00 0.0
1874-07-07 82 60 71.0 -6.2 0 6 0.00 0.0
1874-07-08 91 67 79.0 1.7 0 14 0.03 0.0
1874-07-09 85 71 78.0 0.6 0 13 0.17 0.0
1874-07-10 86 69 77.5 0.0 0 13 1.94 0.0
1874-07-11 82 69 75.5 -2.1 0 11 0.78 0.0
1874-07-12 85 69 77.0 -0.7 0 12 0.83 0.0
1874-07-13 81 70 75.5 -2.2 0 11 0.00 0.0
1874-07-14 87 68 77.5 -0.3 0 13 0.00 0.0
1874-07-15 93 72 82.5 4.7 0 18 0.00 0.0
1874-07-16 86 68 77.0 -0.8 0 12 0.00 0.0
1874-07-17 80 62 71.0 -6.9 0 6 0.00 0.0
1874-07-18 85 63 74.0 -3.9 0 9 0.00 0.0
1874-07-19 84 68 76.0 -1.9 0 11 0.00 0.0
1874-07-20 90 68 79.0 1.1 0 14 0.36 0.0
1874-07-21 79 69 74.0 -3.9 0 9 0.03 0.0
1874-07-22 80 65 72.5 -5.4 0 8 0.00 0.0
1874-07-23 86 65 75.5 -2.3 0 11 0.00 0.0
1874-07-24 83 67 75.0 -2.8 0 10 0.00 0.0
1874-07-25 81 65 73.0 -4.8 0 8 0.00 0.0
1874-07-26 81 69 75.0 -2.8 0 10 0.00 0.0
1874-07-27 82 70 76.0 -1.7 0 11 0.00 0.0
1874-07-28 81 70 75.5 -2.2 0 11 0.00 0.0
1874-07-29 73 66 69.5 -8.1 0 5 0.47 0.0
1874-07-30 81 61 71.0 -6.6 0 6 0.00 0.0
1874-07-31 84 64 74.0 -3.5 0 9 0.00 0.0
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august 1881. three days in mid august with lows in the 50s

Sum 2528 2033 - - 6 280 0.86 0.0
Average 81.5 65.6 73.6 -2.5 - - - -
Normal 83.3 68.9 76.1 - 1 345 4.56 0.0
1881-08-01 80 68 74.0 -3.5 0 9 0.00 0.0
1881-08-02 81 70 75.5 -1.9 0 11 0.00 0.0
1881-08-03 85 67 76.0 -1.3 0 11 0.00 0.0
1881-08-04 91 70 80.5 3.2 0 16 0.00 0.0
1881-08-05 91 75 83.0 5.8 0 18 0.07 0.0
1881-08-06 91 78 84.5 7.4 0 20 0.00 0.0
1881-08-07 79 67 73.0 -4.1 0 8 0.74 0.0
1881-08-08 78 61 69.5 -7.5 0 5 0.00 0.0
1881-08-09 81 62 71.5 -5.4 0 7 0.01 0.0
1881-08-10 86 64 75.0 -1.8 0 10 0.00 0.0
1881-08-11 78 59 68.5 -8.3 0 4 0.00 0.0
1881-08-12 81 62 71.5 -5.2 0 7 0.00 0.0
1881-08-13 96 70 83.0 6.4 0 18 0.00 0.0
1881-08-14 78 66 72.0 -4.5 0 7 0.00 0.0
1881-08-15 76 63 69.5 -6.9 0 5 0.00 0.0
1881-08-16 71 59 65.0 -11.3 0 0 0.00 0.0
1881-08-17 67 56 61.5 -14.7 3 0 0.01 0.0
1881-08-18 67 57 62.0 -14.1 3 0 0.00 0.0
1881-08-19 70 64 67.0 -9.0 0 2 0.02 0.0
1881-08-20 81 66 73.5 -2.3 0 9 0.00 0.0
1881-08-21 85 68 76.5 0.8 0 12 0.01 0.0
1881-08-22 81 67 74.0 -1.6 0 9 0.00 0.0
1881-08-23 83 61 72.0 -3.4 0 7 0.00 0.0
1881-08-24 82 63 72.5 -2.8 0 8 0.00 0.0
1881-08-25 76 65 70.5 -4.6 0 6 0.00 0.0
1881-08-26 82 63 72.5 -2.5 0 8 0.00 0.0
1881-08-27 78 66 72.0 -2.8 0 7 0.00 0.0
1881-08-28 89 67 78.0 3.4 0 13 0.00 0.0
1881-08-29 86 67 76.5 2.1 0 12 0.00 0.0
1881-08-30 85 70 77.5 3.3 0 13 0.00 0.0
1881-08-31 93 72 82.5 8.5 0 18 0.00 0.0
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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85).  More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall.  Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month.  Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the  warm spots but chances may be increasing.

Still getting 80s in October with ease

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