Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,973
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    robrofox
    Newest Member
    robrofox
    Joined

Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
 Share

Recommended Posts

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The ridge and cutoff retrograde west...how it gets there is pretty interesting too.

At the risk of starting another 12 hour debate on what "close" is LOL I'll just stop there :lol: 

ecmwf_z500a_atl_10.png

Two landfalls already this season, I wouldn't argue with a third one.  Not an unprecedented look either, though :weenie:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

18z tropical models took a swing right

Tropical models will not handle the ULL correctly until it's game time. 

Euro will be very important going forward. Still the odds of an easy coast hit is probably 10% right now. 

The capture needs to happen for a hit. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest GFS now develops a second low north of the first one ahead of Sam.  Leaves the first cut-off low behind and recurves Sam and the second together.  Unsure how plausible this is, why would the second low develop?  Would like to hear from a met

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

The latest GFS now develops a second low north of the first one ahead of Sam.  Leaves the first cut-off low behind and recurves Sam and the second together.  Unsure how plausible this is, why would the second low develop?  Would like to hear from a met

The GFS model also showed a Trough with the Cut-off Low & the Action also develops the 2nd Low Pressure area you're talking about . . . But it drifts since it's also cut off from the Jet Stream until it catches it later on . . . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Jtm12180 changed the title to Hurricane Sam - 85mph
14 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Sam's really been shedding the bands. Do we think this is just a temporary pulse down or maybe the beginning of some kind of annular transition?

23b5fe06-33fb-4f7c-ada8-619451abca5b.jpg

No, annular hurricanes generally require marginal SSTs and light southeasterly shear. Sam has neither nor is expected to have either.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Too bad there's no recon. This is likely intensifying at close to the same rate as Ida.

It already achieved technical RI once from a TD to a high-end TS in less than 24 hours.

I've noticed (with Michael, Ida and a few others in recent years) that these TCs which become high-end majors (AOA 120kt) tend to do so in two bursts, with a 12-24 hour leveling off in between.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Sam's really been shedding the bands. Do we think this is just a temporary pulse down or maybe the beginning of some kind of annular transition?

23b5fe06-33fb-4f7c-ada8-619451abca5b.jpg

The eye is also too small for an annular storm currently. Annular storms tend to have a relatively low ratio of eye:storm.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay changed the title to Hurricane Sam
  • Jtm12180 changed the title to Major Hurricane Sam

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...